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Dodger Matt - all messages by user

5/20/2012 7:19:32 PM
Topic:
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 14

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Florida Beaver wrote:
DM,
how'd I do? Or did I screw up again and get disqualified? Dam.....I hate when that happens

No. My mistake. Your scores were tallied. The averages are all correct. I just didn't have you in the week 14 list. (Corrected.)
5/20/2012 9:01:58 PM
Topic:
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 14

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Riverduck wrote:
DM- I would be so grateful if you gave a last series scenario for the pac-12. I know the ucla loss, osu loss, and az loss was huge for the ducks, but I will leave it up to someone else to crunch it. I am thinking the ducks need to win just 1 versus OSU.. is that true? Also heard that espn projected the quackers to be the #2 seed going into the post season.

There will probably be some other analysis from the experts, but here's my quick assessment, based on Oregon's performance in the Civil War:
  • Oregon sweeps OSU 3-0: Oregon is outright, undisputed conference champion.
  • Oregon wins 2 of 3: If Oregon wins two Civil War games, they would be outright champions if Arizona loses one to ASU. They would share the title with the Wildcats if Arizona sweeps ASU.
  • OSU wins 2 of 3: If Oregon only wins one game, they would be outright champs IF: ASU wins 2/3 from UA; UCLA does NOT sweep USC; and Stanford does NOT sweep Cal. The Ducks would share the title IF: Arizona wins 2/3; ASU sweeps; UCLA sweeps; or Stanford sweeps. Oregon would LOSE the title if Arizona sweeps ASU.
  • OSU sweeps Oregon 3-0: If Oregon gets swept in the Civil War, the best they could hope for would be sharing the title. For this to happen, Arizona would have to win only one game over ASU, and UCLA would have to be limited to two wins over USC, and Stanford would have to be limited to two wins over Cal.
FYI, there could be a be a five-way tie for the championship. Oregon would get the league's autobid to the postseason, which is unnecessary for the Pac-12, because of head-to-head series victories over all four of the other teams in contention, but there would be no asterisk saying they are the "real" champions; it would be a shared title.)
5/20/2012 9:16:31 PM
Topic:
Pac-12...Softball

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt wrote:
Sorry, deviating further....

In Division III softball, looks like a Northwest Conference rematch--in the winner's bracket-between Linfield (McMinnville, OR) and Pacific Lutheran (Puyallup, WA) tomorrow. Linfield last year won its second Division III national championship in five seasons. They've already played PLU seven times this year and are 3-4 against the Lutes.

Linfield lost the above game, but has battled through the loser's bracket and needs only to beat Montclair State tomorrow for yet another NWC rematch with PLU. If Linfield wins, the two rivals would play yet again Tuesday for the national championship.
5/20/2012 9:50:32 PM
Topic:
Pac-12...Softball

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Pac-12 softball after regional play:

Ariz 3-0 advanced
Ore 3-0 advanced
UW 3-0 advanced
Cal 4-1 advanced
ASU 3-1 advanced
OSU 2-2 eliminated
Stan 2-2 eliminated
UCLA 0-2 eliminated

TOTAL 20-8 (0.714)

Super regionals:
#16 UW at #1 Cal
#14 Arizona ar #4 Oklahoma
#14 Louisiana-Lafayette at #3 ASU
#11 Oregon at #6 Texas

The Pac-12 team is higher ranked and favored in only two of these five series, and one of them pairs up two Pac-12 teams, so the maximum that can advance is four. (At least one will.)
5/20/2012 9:59:12 PM
Topic:
Predict who will win the Pac

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
All I care is that Oregon State sweeps. Let the rest of the chips fall where they may.

(Psst, ASU. There's only ONE Civil War. It will played in Corvallis next week.) Cool
5/21/2012 6:52:45 PM
Topic:
Pac 12 Player & Pitcher of the Week (Week 14)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
I knew it was going to be Danny Hayes. Almost posted a prediction last night. He's been very inconsistent, with flashes of great offensive abilities sandwiched between disappointing and anticlimactic performances. This weekend it all came together in a bunch for him. Also helped having Conforto bat in front of him, I think.

Congrats, Danny. (Who looks a lot like my stepson. Every time I see Danny, I think of Chris.)
5/21/2012 7:08:20 PM
Topic:
Stupidest Baseball Rule Ever?

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
That is most probably what happened. I admit I did not hear that play at the time it occurred, and I would bet it was something like that. Surmising that that is what must have happened is the only way to reach the conclusion that you have, and perhaps that is exactly what happened. But I have heard more than once the involuntary release rule used as the explanation for the "dropped" ball. I don't know why it would be brought up if the ump said he just never saw it in the fielder's glove. Could be bad reporting on the announcer's part or that he didn't hear the ruling correctly. I'm just glad we can finally bury that dead pitcher and call the game a victory for the home team.

The ironic thing is that Wazzu's outfielder in this last Saturday's game apparently caught a ball and held it for less than a second before he hit the wall and dropped it, but the umps ruled that a catch.
5/21/2012 7:28:03 PM
Topic:
Predict who will win the Pac

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
From the week 14 prediction thread: My assessment, based on Oregon's performance in the Civil War:
  • Oregon sweeps OSU 3-0: Oregon is outright, undisputed conference champion.
  • Oregon wins 2 of 3: If Oregon wins two Civil War games, they would be outright champions if Arizona loses one to ASU. They would share the title with the Wildcats if Arizona sweeps ASU.
  • OSU wins 2 of 3: If Oregon only wins one game, they would be outright champs IF: ASU wins 2/3 from UA; UCLA does NOT sweep USC; and Stanford does NOT sweep Cal. The Ducks would share the title IF: Arizona wins 2/3; ASU sweeps; UCLA sweeps; or Stanford sweeps. Oregon would LOSE the title if Arizona sweeps ASU.
  • OSU sweeps Oregon 3-0: If Oregon gets swept in the Civil War, the best they could hope for would be sharing the title. For this to happen, Arizona would have to win only one game over ASU, and UCLA would have to be limited to two wins over USC, and Stanford would have to be limited to two wins over Cal.
Let's look at that third option. It's possible that either team could sweep the other. I don't think it will happen though. And while it pains me to admit that Oregon is playing (and has played for most of this season) much better team baseball than Oregon State, I still give slightly better odds for the Beavers to take 2 of 3 this weekend.

So that means we have to look at the other teams in the running. Stanford is hosting a Cal team that has bombed for most of the season. While this is also a rivalry series, I think it more than likely that the Cardinal will sweep the Bears. Practically the same scenario for UCLA hosting USC. ASU at Arizona is the tougher matchup for the contender Wildcats. But they would only have to win two if Oregon loses two.

All three of those situations are likely to happen, and if only one happens, then Oregon shares the title. Yes, give them the asterisk crown with tiebreaker consideration.
So that's how I predict it right now: Oregon wins one, Arizona wins two, Stanford or UCLA both sweep, and there is at least a two-way tie for 1st place.
5/21/2012 7:37:52 PM
Topic:
Pac-12...Softball

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
In Division III, Linfield did beat Montclair State to defend their title against conference rivals Pacific Lutheran, but the Lutes defeated the Wildcats 3-0 for their first national title. PLU was 6-3 against Linfield this year. If not for those six losses to PLU, Linfield would have been 46-1 this year. PLU finished 45-11.
5/21/2012 7:49:13 PM
Topic:
PG Top 50: The latest rankings (5/21)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
I'm wondering.... Is there any reason that 21 teams are ranked higher than the Beavers? I'm guessing you think those 21 are either better than Oregon State or more complete. True?

5/22/2012 6:29:06 PM
Topic:
CIVIL WAR CENTRAL

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Y9our place for all discussion on the Civil War between Oregon State and Oregon.

To kick things off, here are some Pac-12 numbers in various stats for both teams. The parenthetcial number to the left is the team's place within the Pac-12. Highlighted numbers indicate an advantage. Looks like an offense (OSU) versus a defense (Oregon).


. . . . . . . . . . Oregon State . . . Oregon
Batting . . . . . . . 7) .285. . . . .10) .266
Slugging. . . . . . . 6) .407. . . . . 8) .379
OBP . . . . . . . . . 3) .384. . . . . 8) .359
Runs. . . . . . . . . 3) 336 . . . . . 8) 265
Hits. . . . . . . . . 7) 509 . . . . . 8) 481
RBIs. . . . . . . . . 4) 302 . . . . . 8) 231
Doubles . . . . . . . 4) 102 . . . . . 8) 84
Triples . . . . . . . 8) 9 . . . . . . 3) 19
Homers. . . . . . . . 3) 33. . . . . . 7) 27
Total bases . . . . . 5) 728 . . . . . 8) 684
Walks . . . . . . . . 1) 230 . . . . . 2) 209
HBP . . . . . . . . . 3) 72. . . . . . 6) 63
Strikeouts. . . . . . 8) 318 . . . . .10) 352
Sac bunts . . . . . . 1) 77. . . . . . 2) 73
Sac flies . . . . . . 6) 23. . . . . . 9) 18
Steal attempts. . . . 8) 55. . . . . . 2) 105
Stolen bases. . . . . 6) 38. . . . . . 3) 66
-----------------------------------------------
Caught opponents. . . 1) .561. . . . . 2) .521
ERA . . . . . . . . . 6) 3.62. . . . . 1) 2.93
OBA . . . . . . . . . 8) .265. . . . . 1) .227
Struck out. . . . . . 3) 352 . . . . . 1) 373
Struck out looking. . 2) 104 . . . . . 1) 109
Saves . . . . . . . . 3) 12. . . . . . 1) 19
Picked off. . . . . . 5) 6 . . . . . . 1) 15
Hits allowed. . . . . 9) 464 . . . . . 1) 399
Runs allowed. . . . . 7) 244 . . . . . 1) 187
Earned runs allowed . 7) 189 . . . . . 2) 162
Walks allowed . . . . 7) 183 . . . . . 11) 196
Doubles allowed . . . 7) 77. . . . . . 1) 52
Triples allowed . . . 8) 14. . . . . . 2) 8
Homers allowed. . . . 5) 18. . . . . . 2) 16
Wild pitches. . . . . 9) 38. . . . . . 5) 30
Balks . . . . . . . . 5) 4 . . . . . . 8) 8
Hit batters . . . . . 5) 49. . . . . .11) 71
5/22/2012 6:34:39 PM
Topic:
PG 64: Projecting the NCAA field (5.22)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
UW is one of the next ten in. Can they make it if they sweep Wazzu in the Apple Cup series? Or would they have to do that and hope someone already in falters?
5/22/2012 11:26:54 PM
Topic:
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 15

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Week 15: Rivalry Weekend!

Even if the Civil War were not the most important series this week, I’d probably list it tops. But...it is anyway!
  • Ore at OSU
  • ASU at Ariz
  • USC at UCLA
  • Cal at Stan
  • WSU at UW
  • Utah vs. Santa Barbara, Bakersfield, Santa Barbara (XB)
Week 15 Series
  • One of the oldest college rivalries will take place this weekend on one of college baseball’s oldest diamonds, as the Ducks visit Goss Stadium at Coleman Field in the 2012 Civil War. Oregon has the easiest track to the conference title and with it a sure national seed. The Needs Report says just one more win for the Ducks would guarantee a top-8 RPI, so even a Beaver sweep in the Civil War might not bounce them out of range. But couple that with a last weekend loss of the conference title, and there might be some raised eyebrows in Selection Committee Land. The Beavers are looking for payback for last year, when the Ducks did exactly that to OSU in Eugene.
  • Even though ASU is banned from postseason play--maybe BECAUSE they are banned—the Desert Series should be pretty intense. Arizona still has a good chance to claim at least a portion of the Pac-12 crown, and depending on what happens in Corvallis, perhaps the outright title. Arizona has done very well and is looking at a possible national/regional hosting opportunity. This is ASU’s postseason right here, and denying their in-state rivals would be the glorious culmination of their season.
  • In a letdown to what looked like a promising return to relevance, USC has no chance to make the postseason. Even a sweep of UCLA would not dent the Bruins’ postseason chances, but it might cost them a national seed. The RPI Needs Report states UCLA will finish in the top 8 RPI even if they do lose all of their remaining games. But I don’t expect that to happen.
  • A year after making the CWS, Cal returns to the couch after this weekend to watch Bay Area rival Stanford advance. Stanford still has an outside shot at a portion of the Pac-12 title, but they will need to sweep Cal. They have all the guns and the home field advantage they need to get that done.
  • Here’s an Apple Cup with, well...maybe some significance. Wazzu is out, but UW holds a slim hope of becoming the sixth team out of the Pac-12 to make the postseason. They will need to sweep the Cougars for an outside chance at the dance.
  • Utah has no rival and finished conference play last weekend. They will definitely finish in last place, yet their miserable first year in the Pac was not as bad as Oregon’s first year, so the Ducks still own the worst Pac season in many, many years. This weekend the Utes play in a four-game minitournament in Bakersfield. For our purposes, we will consider ONLY the first three games: UC Santa Barbara, CS Bakersfield, UC Santa Barbara.
5/22/2012 11:30:41 PM
Topic:
PG Top 50: The latest rankings (5/21)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Heels2Omaha wrote:

Your response was less snarky than Kendall's and included just as much justification behind the reasoning.


Just razzin' ya, Heels.
5/22/2012 11:34:09 PM
Topic:
PG 64: Projecting the NCAA field (5.22)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
He's looking at Boyd's ISRs. UNC's SOS = 50; Oregon's = 5
5/22/2012 11:41:18 PM
Topic:
CIVIL WAR CENTRAL

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
A pair of interesting factoids:

The Ducks, with the best record in the conference, have won all but two conference series this year. The two they lost? To the other two Pacific Northwest teams in the league, Washington (1-2) and Washington State (1-2).

The Beavers have the inverse record against the Evergreen State schools: 2-1 against both. Beating the Ducks would give Oregon State the old Pac-North crown.
5/23/2012 6:06:48 PM
Topic:
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 15

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
MostUnknown wrote:
I love how a subtle shot at Oregon got worked into the Utah preview Big Grin

I try.
5/23/2012 6:14:23 PM
Topic:
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 15

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Duckfan127 wrote:
UO 3-0
ASU 2-1
UCLA 3-0
Stan 2-1
Apple Cup?
XB 2-1
5/23/2012 6:16:44 PM
Topic:
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 15

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Rowdy wrote:
OSU 2-1
Ariz 3-0
UCLA 3-0
Stan 3-0
UW 2-1
Utah 1-0; XB 1-0; CSBU 1-0 (hope this makes sense)

Utah's opponent is "XB": Santa Barbara, Bakersfield, and again Santa Barbara. What I think you just voted for was XB 2-1.
5/23/2012 6:36:14 PM
Topic:
National Predictions: Week 15

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
OSU 2-1
Ariz 2-1
CSF 3-0
Stan 3-0
USD 2-1
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