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Dodger Matt - all messages by user

4/21/2011 6:38:20 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 10 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Awesome game in Berkeley to start the weekend, with Cal tying it at 2 and then tying it again in the 9th at 3. Now in the 11th.

Also, James Nygren is starting for Oregon State. I didn't hear the pregame explanation. Is it because Yeskie wants to keep Gaviglio for a Friday start with his usual amount of rest? Hope there is no other reason....
4/21/2011 6:44:07 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 10 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
CDinSV wrote:

Ore 3-0
USC 3-0 (From what I've seen, the Huskies just plan suck, sorry to all of the Husky fans, but that is the way I see it)

I root for a team outside of the Pac, but I live on the West Coast so I pay attention to the "Power" Conference.
edited by CDinSV on 4/21/2011


I kinda guessed that from your tag. Fresno State fan? Just behave....

One comment on a pair of your picks. I don't think the Huskies "just plan [sic] suck. Yes, they suck, but it's not that plain. For example, they took two of three from that team in Eugene you have chosen to sweep a very good Arizona team. That's just not plain sucking, IMNSHO.
4/21/2011 7:06:37 PM
Topic:
ANALYSIS: Our college baseball Dream Teams

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Just the editor in me: "Conley has a quick, live, loose arm and can throw strides with uncanny routine."
Yes, but can he kick tosses? Just kidding.

Nevertheless, I applaud Allan Simpson for even recognizing Adam Conley, who is doing a heck of a job on a struggling Wazzu team that was lights out just last year.

I was also impressed that Susac made all three lists as best catcher. It makes it all the more remarkable that the Beavers have swept Arizona State and Stanford in successive weekends without him. And with Wazzu doing so poorly this year (Adam Conley's performance notwithstanding), a third straight Pac-10 sweep is not an implausibility. Parker Berberet is doing an awesome job replacing him. (He just threw out another runner trying to steal second in game one of the series against Washington State, and Mike Parker said OSU has not allowed a stolen base in Pac-10 play this year.)

But when Susac returns for the postseason, fear the Beavers.
4/21/2011 7:26:56 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 10 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Pick analysis
  • We have 22 picks this week, our current highest total.
  • The overwhelming favorite this week is Oregon State, the recipient of a 20-2 vote over last place Wazzu, with 19 sweeps.
  • Close behind OSU is USC, also a 20-2 favorite over the other Evergreen State team, Washington. The Trojans earned 4 votes for sweeps over UW.
  • The next highest vote-getter was Arizona, a 16-6 favorite over home team Oregon. UA garnered 4 sweep votes to Oregon's 3 sweeps, so this series provides the widest range of possibilities.
  • Our top two series this weekend are also our two closest in terms of predictions.
  • ASU has a 15-7 edge over Cal, with two sweeps. Cal earned no sweep votes.
  • And the closest series of the week should be UCLA at Stanford. The Bruins have a 13-9 advantage in wins over the Cardinal with two sweeps (to Stanford's zero).
4/21/2011 9:13:22 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 10 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Any of you Beaver fans listening to Brian Stamps on the postgame show. It is no coincidence to me that superfast guys like Stamps TALK superfast too, but I find it funny regardless. He is so quick with the words as well as the legs.

Ninth straight conference win by the Beavers.
4/21/2011 9:41:42 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 10 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Day one:

Several very close games today.


Arizona State 6, Cal 4 (17 innings): The Devils took a 2-0 lead with single runs in the 2nd and 3rd, but Cal evened the score with two in the bottom of the 4th. And there the core styed until the 10th when ASU scored on a Joey DeMichele two-out single. Cal evened the score again with three singles in the bottom half. The score remained tied 4-4 for another three innings, until the 17th. ASU got a single, sac bunt, single, and a walk to load the bases with one out. Deven Marrero singled two in. Cal got a two-out runner in the bottom othe 17th but couldn't score. ASu finished with 17 hits and 3 errors. Cal had 12 hits and no errors.


ASU leads series 1-0.


Stanford 7, UCLA 4: Stanford jumped to a 3-0 lead in the second on twwwo singles and a three-run Zach Jones homer. UCLA scored two on a double by Chris Giovinazzo the next inning, then tied it in the 6th. Stanford retook a one-run lead in the bottom half of the inning and scored two more in the 7th for a 6-3 lead. By then, Gerrit Cole was out of the game, having gone 6.1 IP and surrendering 6 ERs. Stanford added three in the 7th, highlighted by Tyler Gaffney's two-run homer followed by Stephen Piscotty's solo shot. UCLA scored an unearned run in the 8th, but it was not enough. Mark Appel (3-4) got the win; Garrit Cole (4-5) took the loss.


Stanford leads series 1-0.


Oregon State 4, Washington State 2: The Beavers started James Nygren, a typical midweek starter, instead of regular Friday night ace Sam Gaviglio, and Nygren (6-1) went 8.0 IP for the win. Wazzu outhit OSU 7-6, but the Beavers took adavantage of several misplayed balls and one error. OSU scored three in the 7th on a sinbgle, two doubles, and another single. Wazzu scored one more in the 9th to make the final score. Nygren finished with 1 ER, 8 Ks, and 3 walks. Tonay Bryant, now on the Stopper of the Year Award watch list, earned his 7th save. OSU has earned nine straight Pac-10 wins and ten straight overall.


Oregon State leads series 1-0.


Oregon 4, Arizona 2: Oregon jumped on the scoreboard first with single runs in the 2nd and 3rd. Arizona tied it at 2 with a two-run 4th. Oregon retook the lead with two in the 8th on a single, sac bunt, and two two-out singles. Oregon outhit Arizona 11-3. Tyler Anderson (6-1) pitched a complete 9 IP, 3-hit, 2 ER game for the win. Kurt Heyer (6-2) went 7.2 IP the loss.


Oregon leads series 1-0.


USC 2, Washington 1: Washington struck first in the 1st with a walk and a double. USC took the lead in the 2nd with a single, a walk, and a two-run double by James Roberts. That was the end of the scoring. Andrew Triggs (3-3) pitched a full 9 IP for the win. Geoff Brown (1-4) went 8 IP in the loss for UW though he gave up only 2 ERs.


USC leads series 1-0.
4/22/2011 5:08:57 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 10 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
ASU74 wrote:
We are all just one pitch away from humility.


That's a great quote. Wise men will recognize its truth.
4/22/2011 6:18:23 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 10 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Parker Berberet on the pregame show: That was one of the most articulate interviews I have heard. That guy knows the game and expresses himself well. Thumbs up, Parker.

On the pitching staff and the starter situation folks have mentioned: I'm with Believer20. Nygren was a starter for a couple years, and while not overwhelming, he was consistent and reliable, but he is much better in a midweek game or doing four-plus innings in a regional where we might need an extra arm. So the Turpen comparison is spot on.

Beyond that, I am so geeked by this young and exciting pitching staff. Wetzler, Schultz, and especially Tony Bryant have exceeded expectations, IMO. And we also have Matt Boyd, Cam Booser, and Ryan Dunn, who are no slouches. We are deep! This team has a 2006 feel to me, only younger.
4/22/2011 6:34:23 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 10 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Huh? Gaviglio has given up four runs in the first and he's not out of it yet....
4/22/2011 7:54:23 PM
Topic:
C'mon ESPNU

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Yeah, television broadcasts of college baseball are ridiculous. I've never their choices. Bethune-Cupcake and Lossin State? Yep, makes sense....
4/22/2011 7:58:31 PM
Topic:
Oregon State vs. Wazzu

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Beaver fans, are you worried about this series? Sammy G gave up an uncharacteristic four runs in the 1st, and Chad Arnold is dealing like never beofre (though he is a much better pitcher than his record would indicate). But I still feel we will come around in the 7th, 8th, or 9th. What say you, Beav fans?
4/22/2011 10:19:07 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 10 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
ASU 5, Cal 0: ASU wins a rare feat in that both pitchers went the full nine innings. Cal's bushyheaded leftie, Justin Jones (5-3), ran into the buzzsaw that is ASU's offense, and although it appears he escaped without getting a trim to his unsheveled locks, he was knocked around for nine hits and five earned runs. ASU's cleancut rightie, Kramer Champlin, from Olympia WA, scattered five hits and blanked the Bears for his sixth win (against one loss). Riccio Torrez led ASU in batting going 2 for 4 with one RBI. The Devils have worked their way back up the standings and into sole possession of second place with a 10-4 record. Meanwhiloe Cal drops to 9-5 and fourth place (pending UCLA's game later today). ASU will go for the sweep tomorrow.

ASU leads series 2-0.

UCLA 4, Stanford 1: Stanford broke a scoreless tie in the 3rd with a two-out, bases-loaded strikeout. Yup. Stephen Piscotty swung on and missed a wild pitch third strike, and made it safely to first, while Lonnie Kauppila scored from third. UCLA took the lead with a single and a one-out double by Cody Keefer, who later scored on a wild pitch. UCLA added a run in the 5th on a Pat Valaika double and Dean Espy single, and another in the 6th to lead it 4-1. Trevor Bauer pitched another complete game for the win, yielding one earned run and 2 walks, while striking out 17. Wow. Rubber game tomorrow.

Series tied 1-1.

Oregon State 7, Washington State 6: The Cougars jumped on the Pac-10's best pitcher in a big way, posting 4 runs in the 1st on a single, double, single, and two-run homer by freshman Jason Monda. OSU scratched for single runs in the 1st and 3rd. The Beavers tied it in the 6th on a single, walk, wild pitch, single, and sac fly. Wazzu retook the lead in the 7th scoring two more against Gaviglio, thanks to a Cody Bartlett triple. Bartlett was thrown out at the plate on the next play, but that was the end of Sam Gaviglio's less-than-stellar outing. Matt Boyd came in and finished the Cougars. Down 6-4, the Beavers tied it again in the 8th on a walk, a Brian Stamps double, a sac fly, and a single. And in the bottom of the 9th, Jared Norris knocked a leadoff double against Wazzu's Paris Shewey, then Danny Hayes singled him home for the Beavers' tenth straight Pac-10 win and eleventh straight overall. Tony Bryant (3-1) pitched one inning of relief for the win. Shewey took the loss. Cody Bartlett led the Cougs, going 4 for 5 with 2 RBIs. Danny Hayes went 3 for 5 with 2 RBIs for the Beavs, who attempt their third straight Pac-10 sweep tomorrow. The Beavers are the nation's only club to have two win streaks of 10 or more games OSU also won 12 straight earlier this season.

OSU leads series, 2-0.

Arizona 2, Oregon 1: Oregon scored in the bottom of the 1st on two leadoff singles and a fielder's choice. Arizona tied it in the 5th with a double, single, and two ground out. Tied 1-1, the Wildcats took the lead for good on a leadoff solo homer by Johnny Field in the 7th inning. In another pair of complete game efforts, Kyle Simon went nine for Arizona and got the win, while Oregon's Madison Boer pitched the full nine for the loss.

Series tied 1-1.

USC 12, Washington 9: USC jumped to a 2-0 lead in the first on a teo-run Ricky Oropesa homer. Washington tied it in the bottom half of the frame on four straight leadoff hits, three hits and Troy Scott's RBI double. USC jumped ahead in the 3rd on a James Roberts double, a single, and a sac bunt, then padded their lead by two in the 4th to take a 5-2 lead. the trojans added three in the 5th and three more in the 7th to lead by a preposterous 12-2 score, but Washington scored seven in the bottom of the 7th, highlighted by Chase Anselment's 2-run homer, to narrow the gap to 12-9. And that's where she sat until game's end. The Huskies outhit the Trojans 15 to 11 but also gave up 3 errors to USC's none. Niceville's Austin Wood (AW) got the win for USC; Aaron West (AW) took the loss for UW.

USC leads series, 2-0.
4/23/2011 10:17:59 AM
Topic:
Oregon State vs. Wazzu

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
OpihiMan wrote:
Welcome...don't be a stranger, Beavs stick together

YellowlabOSU wrote:
I usually just troll these forums, but I had to make an account after that win, that game as absolutely epic! Way to go Beavs!


Suspicious.... Yellowlab sounds like a Duck. A true Beaver fan would have chosen Blacklab....
4/23/2011 11:21:06 AM
Topic:
Oregon State vs. Wazzu

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
I understand today's game will be televised. Does anyone know a site that will be streaming it live on the internet?
4/23/2011 7:02:55 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 10 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Day three

ASU 6, Cal 0: Jake Barrett (5-3) pitched a complete game shutout to finish Arizona State’s sweep of Cal. Dixon Anderson (4-2) took the loss. Joey DeMichele led the Devils going 2 for 4 with 2 RBIs and a home run. Zach Wilson hit a two-run homer for the Devils. Vince Bruno went 2 for 3 for the Bears.

ASU sweeps series, 3-0.

Stanford 5, UCLA 4: The Bruins led for most of the game, entering the bottom of the 9th with a 4-1 advantage. Closer Nick Vander Tuig quickly retired the first two batters and needed one more out to clinch the series win for UCLA. But then Stanford strung together several two-out hits and walks: A single, a walk, a single to score one, then a Zach Jones double to score two more. Zack Weiss relieved Vander Tuig, and he threw eight consecutive balls to load the bases. Brandon Lodge was called in to get one out and take the game to extra innings. But on a full count, with two out and the bags full, Kenny Diekroger hit a single to score the winning run, a remarkable come-from-behind victory that gave the Cardinal the series.

Stanford wins series, 2-1.

Wazzu 2, Oregon State 0: The streak comes to an end. Wazzu’s James Wise (4-4) limited the Beavers to 3 hits over 7.2 IP, and the Cougs shut out the Beavers to claim one win. Wise walked 5 and struck out 4. Josh Osich (5-1) took the loss, going 6.1 IP, 2 runs (both earned), 8 Ks, 1 BB.

Oregon State wins series, 2-1.

Oregon 7, Arizona 3: The Ducks scored in each of the first four innings and owned a 6-2 advantage. The Wildcats scored one more in the 6th, but Oregon got it back in the 8th and held on for their first conference series win this year. Alex Keudell pitched 5.2 innings for the win. Oregon DH Ryon Healy led his team at the plate going 3 for 3 with a home run and 2 RBIs.

Oregon wins series, 2-1.

Washington 8, USC 2: UW held a 3-1 lead going into the 5th, then exploded for five two-out runs. After two singles and a hit batsman, Chase Anselment doubled in two runners, then head coach Lindsay Meggs’s son Joe hit a three-run homer to put the Huskies up 8-1. USC added a run in the 9th. Meggs finished 3 for 3 with 4 RBIs. J.R. Aguirre, 0 for 3, got both of USC’s RBIs without getting a hit. Austin Voth (3-4) pitched 7 IP for the win.

USC wins series, 2-1.
4/24/2011 12:07:08 AM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 10 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Scores:

Looks like a first-timer, and an unaffiliated fan (from out of the conference) got the high score this week. Same for the number two spot.
  • 19 VandyDore75
  • 18 CdinSV
  • 17 BeaverBob
  • 16 2Bulldogs
  • 16 borgguy
  • 16 opihi man
  • 15 ASU74
  • 15 cas77
  • 15 SouthCoastStu
  • 14 BballJones
  • 14 Dodger Matt
  • 14 OregonStateChris
  • 14 SouthernBeaver
  • 14 WildCard85
  • 14 YoYo
  • 13 BB41751
  • 13 BeaverBeliever20
  • 12 WCC1
  • 11 MostUnknown
  • 10 949baseballfan
  • 10 Florida Beaver
  • 10 RiverDuck
Score analysis:
  • 16/22 correctly picked USC 2-1.
  • 9/22 correctly picked Stanford 2-1.
  • That's the end of the good news.
  • Only three picked Oregon 2-1, two picked ASU 3-0, and one picked OSU 2-1.
  • Our winner this week got 4 out of 5, only missing ASU.
  • In terms of picking the winning team, fans were above .500 on USC (20), OSU (20), and ASU (15).
  • Fans were below .500 on Stanford (9) and Oregon (6).
4/24/2011 10:27:12 AM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 10 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
ASU74 wrote:
DM, We are at the half way point in the Pac season. Could you please post the Pac Pickers rankings.

Yes, Easter is like the Pac-10's All-Star break. There have been so many new people that I have had to reformat my spreadsheet, and I'm not quite done. I'll try to post the averages before next weekend's picks.
4/24/2011 10:37:10 AM
Topic:
Question about RPI

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Here's another anomaly: Washington State, with a record of 15-19, now apparently has the #1 SOS according to Boyd. They have a 44 ISR and a 33 RPI. Now their record is not an accurate indicator of how good they are because they have lost to some very good teams. But a west coast team is not usually ranked higher in the RPI than in the ISR, and that 11-point difference is not insignificant. My only guess is that the RPI rewards a team too much for its opponents' records.
4/25/2011 7:09:56 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 10 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Easter Break Averages

This is not the first time the PG forum interface has blown up my post before I can click add message. Not happy. >:-(

So here’s the abridged version: I’ve grouped folks into two categories: those who have played 3 to 5 times, those who have not. By season’s end, you will probably need to participate at least one game more than half the total to be eligible for the upper group. I’ll adjust this as we go, and I’ll provide more updates as the season comes to an end so people on the cusp can decide whether to play it safe or take risks for a chance to win big at the end.

Okay, enough blather. Here are the current averages:

Three-to-five group
  • 17.00 BeaverBob
  • 16.33 SouthernBeaver
  • 16.00 Dodger Matt
  • 15.75 OregonStateChris
  • 15.69 cas77
  • 15.67 opihi man
  • 15.50 2Bulldogs
  • 15.33 CaughtBySparky
  • 14.94 ASU74
  • 13.57 Florida Beaver
  • 13.00 WildCard85
Two-and-under group
  • 19.00 VandyDore75
  • 18.00 BeaverBeliever20
  • 18.00 BeaverQuist
  • 18.00 Lute31
  • 18.00 rec1347
  • 17.50 BballJones
  • 17.00 MostUnknown
  • 16.50 SouthCoastStu
  • 16.00 borgguy
  • 14.00 CdinSV
  • 14.00 YoYo
  • 13.00 BB41751
  • 12.00 RiverDuck
  • 12.00 WCC1
  • 10.00 949baseballfan
  • 10.00 pissproblem
4/26/2011 6:56:37 PM
Topic:
CHAT: My weekly chat transcript (4/25)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt

Comment From Matt
Kendall, what exactly is ISR, how is it factored, and how (if [at] all) do you use it with rankings, projections, etc?


2:51
Matt,
The ISR is Iterative Strength Ratings. And no, it's a made up formula that isn't used by anyone from the NCAA, therefore, we're not going to use it for projections. While the RPI seems to be Southeastern biased, the ISR definitely appears to be more biased to the West Coast. It's not a bad ranking system, just not worth using considering the NCAA doesn't use it.


This question was not from me, first name notwithstanding. Here's how I would have altered your response;

Matt,

The ISR stands for Iterative Strength Ratings. It's a formula devised by Boyd Nation that is used by a lot of statisticians because it is superior to the Rat's Patootie Index. Unfortunately, no one from the NCAA currently uses it in baseball, at least not officially; therefore, we at Perfect Game don't currently use it for our projections of what the NCAA will do. While the RPI is definitely biased in favor of Southeastern teams, the ISR often appears to show West Coast teams more favorably. It's definitely a superior ranking system, as any statistician worth his salt will attest, but considering the fact that the troglodytes in the NCAA don't use it, we have decided that basing projections on true statistical numbers versus what the NCAA uses will not provide projections that are as realistic.
Hopefully one day the NCAA will recognize its error and drop the Rat's Patootie Index and use the ISR instead. Then everyone will be happy, except perhaps for the #9 and #10 teams in the ACC and SEC.

PS: Great name, Matt. And go Beavs!


Anyway, that's how I would have answered. Not that your answer wasn't acceptable.... Just think mine fills in all the blanks this guy probably wanted to know.
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