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3/18/2012 11:33:30 PM
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 5

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
This week's scores

20.4 BeaverBeliever20
16.8 Dodger Matt
16.8 FullertonBaseballFan
15.6 cswanson2k7
15.6 Florida Beaver
15.6 OpihiMan
14.4 BeaverBob
14.4 borgguy
14.4 ConnorOSU
14.4 Islander
14.4 MostUnknown
14.4 WildCard85
13.2 ASU74
13.2 CaughtBySparky
13.2 RiverDuck

A couple things:

First, these are adjusted scores. The raw scores would have been lower, but we are forcing the data to fit into a 6-series score for every week, so every point was worth 1.2 points. That's why we have decimal scores.

Second, these are ugly low scores for sure. That's in large part due to USC tanking (lowest average score ever, I think), and to a lesser degree Oregon doing so poorly and OSU sweeping. So anyone who missed this week and joins on the second week of conference play will probably have a slight advantage going forward. (You'll be able to skip probably three weeks and still compete for the crown.)
3/18/2012 11:50:17 PM
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 5

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Score analysis

  • Top average score was 3.67 for Ariz 2-1. 10/15 got that right.
  • Second was 3.20 for UCLA 2-1. (9/15 got that.) These are the only two that the voters on average picked correctly.
  • Third was OSU 3-0, average score of 2.60. Only 1/15 picked that, but 10/15 had the next best thing, OSU 2-1.
  • Another awful score was UW 2-1, average of 2.13. 2/15 got that right.
  • But the absolute worst prediction probably ever since I've been doing these was Utah 2-1, which nobody picked and had an average of 1.07.
  • Because 14/15 picked a USC sweep, if they had lost the last game, the average score would have been 0.07.
Not sure how many of you are interested in the score analysis bullets, so let me know....
edited by Dodger Matt on 3/18/2012
3/19/2012 10:52:09 AM
What was the weekend's biggest surprise?

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Have to agree with UK (whose early win-loss records are always inflated and then they hit conference play and fall back to earth) sweeping SoCar. A close second would be Utah shutting down USC and nearly sweeping them as well.
3/19/2012 7:14:53 PM
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 5

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
paintitblack wrote:
You're right, this is only one weekend. Not counting the Rivals "experts" whose opinion and $2.00 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks, almost every pre-season poll (PAC-12 Coaches, Baseball America, USA Today, etc) had Oregon State ahead of California and in most cases around fifth in the conference behind Stanford, the Arizona schools and UCLA. A road sweep is always impressive, but there are still 27 conference games to go.

Okay, first, don't go anywhere. You're like a unicorn--the first Cal fan I've seen online. So if I've offended you in any way, I apologize. Stick around and give us your predictions.

Second, I did not intend any direct disrespect to Cal, although I admit I have been saying I think they were overrated by a number of folks in the preseason, along with Arizona. My point was that OSU always seems to be undervalued. And even with our pitching in disarray, we went into Berkeley and took all three. This upcoming weekend series for OSU against Arizona is what I called a key matchup at the beginning of the year. I'm not saying we will be dominant against the Cats, but if we prevail, that supports my preseason assessment (and my complaint above) all the more vis-a-vis UA and Cal. We shall see.

Third, you're right that OSU placed one slot ahead of Cal in the coaches' preseason poll this year and was rated above Cal on most of the other polls. But check these:

Collegiate Baseball:

22. California (38-23) 447
23. Vanderbilt (54-12) 445
24. Oregon St. (41-19) 443

Eric Sorenson:

- The Pac 12.

1- Stanford
2- Arizona
3- California
5- Arizona State
6- Oregon State
7- Oregon
8- USC
9- Utah
10- Washington State
11- Washington

That's only two. I won't bother with the Rivals "experts", as you call them. And maybe I was erroneously grouping Cal with Arizona, since UA was ranked above OSU in all of the polls:

Perfect Game (11 vs 17)
USA Today (11 vs 16)
NCBWA (18 vs 22)
Baseball America (5 vs. 23)
Collegiate Baseball (20 vs. 24)

In any case, let's move on. I'd appreciate your input on these threads.
3/19/2012 8:49:47 PM
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 5

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Yes, he did qualify his placement of the Beavs, not just with that statement. And he admitted that he underrated them severely last year. So no biggie. I don't mind creeping up on people. And I understand your grief over the weekend. Gonna be tough again this weekend, I think.

Hey, here's a question you can probably answer definitively for me. Mike Parker, the voice of the Beavers, is usually pretty good about name pronunciations, but he mentioned one this weekend that sounded wrong to me. His pronunciation was DAWN-oh-FREE-oh. I thought it was doe-NO-free-oh. Cool
3/20/2012 5:57:38 PM
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 6

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Week 6

Using Perfect Game's rankings this week, all teams but Wazzu and Utah are in the top 50.

This week's games
  • #7 Ariz at #26 OSU
  • #39 Cal at #17 ASU
  • WSU at #6 UCLA
  • #43 USC at #2 Stan
  • Utah at #27 Ore
  • CS Bakersfield (YYB) at #40 UW
Week 5 Series
  • The top series this weekend is one I called out before the season as a key to not only Oregon State’s conference title hopes, but also one that would have an impact on Arizona and the rest of the conference. If the Beavers win this series, especially with their pitching situation still in flux, it signals their potential to stay at the top throughout conference play. Arizona faces Stanford the following week, and a poor showing in Corvallis could put the Cats in a hole quickly.
  • The other key contest between ranked teams has Cal visiting Arizona State. Both are good teams, yet both are under .500 in conference after one week of play. One of them could very well be stuck in the cellar for a while if they lose this series. ASU’s next conference opponent will be Oregon in Eugene; Cal will have two weeks to regroup, but will be heading to the Lone Star State to play Texas for four games--not a good situation for “licking one’s wounds”. Playing at home, give the Devils the advantage.
  • Wazzu visits UCLA, one of three top-ten Pac-12 teams. The Cougs are inconsistent, but they still managed to take the first game last weekend from Arizona and played the Cats tough. UCLA is playing much better than at the start of the season, but I can’t forget that they lost two to Maryland. Bruins are favored, but look for some close games if they make any mistakes.
  • What an unpleasant surprise last weekend was for the Trojans, who looked to be building on some very good wins against nonconference heavyweights then lost two (and almost three) to Utah. Now they travel to Palo Alto to take on a well-rested Stanford and their #2 ranking. I think USC still has some good one-two arms and could put up a fight. But it looks like another setback for the Trojans. They may have to wait for their trip next week to the Palouse for some redemption. Note: This series does not start until Saturday.
  • The upstart Utes visit Oregon and probably get their one-week-late hazing as newbs to the conference. Everyone expected a USC blowout that never came. It would be silly to think they could avoid their medicine two weeks in a row, especially from a Duck team that had its own USC-like disappointing weekend against UW.
  • The nonconference affair this week is Cal State Bakersfield at UW. The Roadrunners are 7-11 with a couple of good wins under their belts (Kansas State, Fresno State, Portland). But with the way the Dawgs are playing, even in that scrub field they call home, it’s hard to think CSUB will come out with a series win.
3/21/2012 1:18:35 PM
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 6

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Florida Beaver wrote:
Ah, and here I was talking about keeping my emotions in check, then BB talks about my rivals comments. 2Bulldogs ignorance just teed me off. I just re-read the thread and actually found it somewhat humorous.

FWIW, I considered responding to 2Bulldogs's comments before you actually did, but thought better of it. He's not a bad guy, though he does like to argue. And his comments (regarding stats) weren't that far off. The fact that he was discussing Pac-12 baseball was good, IMO. (He's an Anteater guy, a Gillespie guy, and...a number of other guys as well.) Anyway, pointing out the results of the series and asking his reassessment might have produced more interesting comments. Just sayin'. Cool
3/22/2012 1:02:14 AM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
I don't know about SoCar. Teams go through bad spells. Look at Arizona right now. But the Gamecocks have some quality wins. This weekend against Florida will be interesting. I say they bounce back and play well, even if they don't take the series.

As for Kentucky, every year they go through their first 20 or 30 games with but a handful of losses and their fans start touting how great they are. Then SEC play begins and they fall to mediocrity. Yes, they swept the Gamecocks. But look at the rest of their (#188 SOS) schedule (ISRs in parens): Wofford (227), Eastern Michigan (197), SCUpstate (47), Buffalo (188), Morehead State (142), Xavier (194), Illinois-Chicago (166), Tennessee Tech (170), Marshall (186), Canisius (213), Wright State (158), Murray State (131). Seriously? I bet they looked at South Carolina Upstate's ISR last year (211) and said hesitantly, "Okay...I guess we'll play you." Cuz that #47 is an ungodly high number for a UK opponent in the preseason.

Anyway I NEVER think Kentucky is as good as their fans say in the first half of the season. Let's see what their record is after they play Georgia, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and LSU. (Hint: I think they'll be at or under .500 in conference play by then.)
3/22/2012 11:03:05 AM
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 6

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Florida Beaver wrote:
Usually (from my past experiences) a ditch is the least damaging place to end up. Guardrails, other cars, etc. usually hurt cars, trucks, whatevers, real bad. The ditch is the most embarrassing though. Gotta sit and ask for help to get out.

You're right. I hit the guardrails in December, going across the Willamette. (Everything was bone dry that 20-something morning except for the bridge, which I didn't notice until it was too late.) Hit one side, bounced back to the other, totaled my truck. I was just lucky there was no oncoming traffic in that ten-second interval (there usually is quite a lot) and that the guardrails held my vehicle from going into the drink. Kinda wish it had been a ditch instead.
3/22/2012 6:14:57 PM
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 6

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
osu 2-1
asu 2-1
ucla 2-1
stan 2-1
ore 3-0
uw 2-1

Had a hard time deciding whether Cal State Pitchcount would take one from UW.
3/23/2012 12:43:05 AM
National Predictions: Week Six

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Don't know what happened to Connor. Maybe he got stuck in ditch with the snow. But it's almost too late to get people's picks, and I hate to see a week missed. So I'll throw out five series that should be of interest. If Connor comes back online soon, he can use these if he wants. Tried to get a fair representation from different regions/conferences. (I was going to pick Florida at SoCar, but they already played today!) Rankings are from NCBWA.
  • #3 Arkansas at Mississippi State
  • #8 Texas A&M at Pepperdine
  • #10 Arizona at #16 Oregon State
  • #15 Georgia Tech at Boston College
  • #28 Purdue at Ohio State
Arkansas (20-2) sits atop the SEC West with a 3-0 conference record, having swept Alabama last weekend. They travel to Starkville to take on the Bulldogs (15-7, 1-2) in their conference home opener. MSU dropped two one-run games to LSU, one in 10 innings, before blasting the Tigers 7-1 in the finale.
Texas A&M (16-5) visits the beach cliffs of Malibu to take on the Pepperdine Waves (16-5) in the only nonconference affair this week. The Aggies will be the second Big XII team Pepperdine will have faced this year, taking two of three from Oklahoma to start the season.

Arizona (16-6, 2-1) travels to Corvallis to take on the Oregon State Beavers (14-5, 3-0). Other than a two-game midweek set at Rice, this will be the Wildcats first trip way from home. And they will be leaving the warm southern Arizona desert for the Willamette Valley, where five inches of snow fell two days before game day.

Georgia Tech (14--7, 3-3) takes on Boston College (7-12, 0-6) in the frigid Northeast. The Eagles were swept on the road by both Miami and Clemson, but maybe playing before a cold home crowd will turn their fortunes. BC actually won 6 of their first 8 games, but then they went on a ten-game losing streak.

Purdue (14-3) , this year's Northern surprise team, visits Ohio State (11-8) in both teams' conference opener. The Boilermakers have some decent wins on their resume this year, including UConn, ECU, Auburn, and Southern Miss. Ohio State also beat UConn and took one of three from Georgia Tech.
The reminders:

  • Vote for the team you expect to win and whether the results will be 3-0 or 2-1.
  • Pick teams in the exact order posted. This makes it easier for me to tabulate.
  • You can change your picks up until first pitch of the first game. Games will only take place Friday-Sunday.
  • Make sure to come back next Monday for the updated standings and Week 7 Picks.
  • There are no prizes. We play for bragging rights.
  • Points are awarded in the following manner:

Pick . . Result . . Pts.
3-0 . . . 3-0 . . . . 6
. . . . . . 2-1 . . . . 3
. . . . . . 1-2 . . . . 1
. . . . . . 0-3 . . . . 0

2-1 . . . 3-0 . . . . 3
. . . . . . 2-1 . . . . 4
. . . . . . 1-2 . . . . 2
. . . . . . 0-3 . . . . 1
3/23/2012 10:56:00 AM
National Predictions: Week Six

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Arkansas 1-1
Pepperdine 1-1
Oregon State 2-0
Georgia Tech 2-0
Purdue 2-0
3/23/2012 7:20:26 PM
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 6

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Daweez04 wrote:
TempeJim wrote:
UA 2-1
ASU 3-0
UCLA 3-0
Stanford 3-0
UO 3-0
UW 3-0

I'm curious to see how Utah does at Oregon, but I think they'll come up short. I'm torn on the UA/OSU series. I could see that go either way, but I'm giving the nod to the home team. Otherwise none of the other series will be close.

FYI, OSU is the home team, not UA

Weez. why ain't you playing? No more excuses.
3/23/2012 7:28:24 PM
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 6

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Great start by the Beavers. Two singles, two doubles, and 3 runs in the 1st; couple singles and another run in the 2nd; three hits and a fifth run in the 3rd.
3/23/2012 9:05:21 PM
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 6

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
"As should be done with napkins, [he] puts it in his pocket. Nothing else should be done with them." --Mike Parker.

Some napkin was blowing across the field in the bottom of the 8th when he said this. Parker had to have said that purposefully. Does anybody know why this was funny?
3/26/2012 9:18:23 PM
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 6

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Sorry I didn’t provide day-by-day summaries. Here’s something a little different. Feedback is appreciated.
  • Arizona beats OSU 2-1. I picked this as a key series for both clubs at the beginning of the season, and I think the three games lived up to it. All three games were close and could have gone the other way easily. Oregon State’s bullpen was shaky, almost giving away the game on win and definitely losing game two. I have to give Arizona the credit I was reluctant to give at the beginning of the year. Their offense is very good, and pitching not bad either. They are clearly in the #2 spot in the conference. OSU is not that far behind, however, and with a bullpen different approach should have had the first two games. The Beavers’ offense is also impressive, because of what one typically expects from an OSU ballclub. Tyler Smith continues to amaze with his hitting, with an overall BA of .463 and a conference BA of .522 (12 for 23). Both are tops in the conference, and Smith also leads the Pac-12 in OBP (.538). Michael Conforto, who had a bit if a slump this weekend, still leads the conference with 29 RBIs. Arizona came into the series with a whopping 44 stolen bases, tops in the conference, compared to OSU’s 17, but the Beavers did not allow a single steal over the weekend, and grabbed 4 of 5 steal attempts themselves. Arizona only attempted one steal and was thrown out at second, but Robert Refsnyder, tied for first in the conference with 9 steals, was picked off at first by Matt Boyd TWICE in the same game. Arizona’s series next week at home against the Cardinal is the next big thing.
  • Arizona State beats Cal 2-1. Cal showed some heart, winning the second game and leading the third before ASU put a big 5-run hurt on them in the 5th. This is probably thee best 11th place Pac-12 team we’re likely to see this year. With a week off from conference play, Cal will be able to regroup against USC and UW the following two weeks, and they should begin a slow climb out of the conference cellar. ASU got an excellent 9-inning 1-run win from Brady Rodgers and another good performance (albeit on the losing end) by Trevor Williams who pitched all but the last out of the second game. That said, ASU is in a surprising spot right now at 3-3, tied with Utah and Oregon. Next up for the Devils is Oregon in Eugene then OSU in Tempe. The battle of 3-3 teams next week should be a good one.
  • UCLA beats Wazzu 2-1. Washington State is the most inconsistent team in the conference and scary because you never now which team will show up. After getting blown out in the first two games by equal scores of 12-3, the Cougs blasted UCLA starter Grant Watson with 9 earned run in the first 1.2 innings on Sunday and cruised to a 10-4 victory. They also shut out Arizona in their first game last week 6-0, and they have beaten CS Fullerton and Mississippi State, and lost to Northern Colorado and UNLV. UCLA has bounced back from a weak season start, and they look solidly in the top tier of the conference teams right now, with Stanford, Arizona, and Oregon State. I expect them to move up next week after playing Utah, especially since the other four teams at the top of the standings will be facing off against each other.
  • Stanford beats USC 2-1. USC lost two close games with their top two pitchers to both Utah and to Stanford, then came back to take both third games. I still think this Trojan team, like the Golden Bears, is far better than their 2-4 record indicates. Next week they travel to Pullman to take on Washington Schizophrenic University, then they host Cal in what could be a make or break series for both clubs. Stanford meanwhile looked good statwise against USC even in game three...except for those 6 errors! Next week they travel to Tucson to participate in a battle between two of the top teams in the conference. The Cardinal should have the edge, even as a road team, and should emerge from this series as the top team in the conference, to match their national credentials. Even if they don’t win the series, their next two opponents (UW and Oregon) will provide an easier path to improving their conference record.
  • Oregon beats Utah 2-1. Utah continues to amaze by upending conventional wisdom and playing like crap against OOC patsies then playing tough against solid middle tier Pac-12 teams. There’s no way they should have beaten USC’s ace and deuce last week, and there’s no way they should have been that close against Oregon in the first two games this week. Then they stole the third one in the 9th with a 2-run homer. I’m guessing UCLA will have difficulty handing the Utes their first conference sweep this weekend in the Beehive State. As for Oregon, it doesn’t get any easier with ASU coming to town next week. If they had difficulty scoring three runs against Utah’s ace, imagine how they’ll do against Brady Rodgers. And ASU’s potent offense will not wait until the 9th of game three to deliver punishing long balls. Then the Ducks travel to UCLA and Stanford. Can you say goodbye .500 record?
  • Washington sweeps Cal State Bakersfield 3-0. The first two games were close (4-2, 7-3) but that last one (13-1) looked brutal. poor Roadrunners. And this was supposed to be the conference’s worst team in the preseason prognostications. Yet here the Huskies sit at 5th with a 2-1 conference record, 15-7 overall. That standing is in jeopardy as they head to Corvallis this weekend then host Stanford. But don’t count the Huskies out, especially against a Pacific Northwest rival. OSU has a number of Evergreen State kids on the roster, and situations like that foster competition and enmity. This Husky team has already outperformed most pundits’ expectations this year.
3/26/2012 9:24:43 PM
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 6

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Week 6 scores

First-timer Rowdy (with no declared Pac-12 team affiliation) tops the list this week, getting all six series correct.
  • 26.0 Rowdy
  • 24.0 ASU74
  • 23.0 borgguy
  • 23.0 WildCard85
  • 22.0 MostUnknown
  • 22.0 TempeJim
  • 21.0 BeaverBeliever20
  • 21.0 ConnorOSU
  • 21.0 FullertonBaseballFan
  • 20.0 Dodger Matt
  • 19.0 BeaverBob
  • 19.0 CaughtBySparky
  • 18.0 Florida Beaver
  • 18.0 OpihiMan
  • 17.0 RiverDuck
3/27/2012 10:41:42 PM
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 7

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
I think the ISRs are still a few weeks off from being accurate, but they’re getting pretty close, so we’re going with ISRs this week.

This week's games
  • #2 Stan at #18 Ariz
  • #33 UW at #20 OSU
  • #27 ASU at #19 Ore
  • #32 USC at #61 WSU
  • #4 UCLA at #176 Utah
  • #59 Cal vs #28 Texas
Week 7 Series
  • In some polls, with Arizona as high as #8, this is a top ten matchup, and as such highlights this week’s games. Stanford lost a surprising game three to USC but still has enough firepower to overcome a bad start to give Arizona some trouble, even at home. The Wildcats themselves showed they could come back from early deficits by doing so in all three games against the Beavers last weekend, tying the first one before falling in the 9th and winning the latter two. This is the most important series so far this season in terms of deciding the conference championship.
  • Washington is still something of a surprise, but their 15-7 record matches Oregon State’s, and, coming off a three-game sweep of CS Bakersfield and a 2-1 series victory over Oregon, head into Corvallis with some confidence. The Beavers need a strong performance against the Huskies to show they still intend to play a major role in who decides the Pac-12 championship. On paper, this should be OSU’s easiest conference series for the next month as they travel to Tempe, have a bye, then host UCLA.
  • Some polls have ASU higher than Oregon, but, even though their conference records are even at .500, Oregon’s overall record is slightly better (15-6 vs. 15-8). And they are playing in Eugene. Well, the cold Oregon weather didn’t seem to slow down Arizona’s bats last weekend, so maybe ASU won’t be slowed down either. Not that Oregon’s pitching slowed down Utah’s mighty bats much, especially in the 9th inning, so who knows what will happen. but these games should be as close and exciting as last week’s matchup between OSU and Arizona.
  • USC has to be smarting after the last two conference series, especially since they lost to Utah 2-1, even though they outscored the Utes 11-9 overall, and lost 2-1 to Stanford, even though they outscored the Cardinal 12-11. So they’re losing the close ones, like that 1-0 loss to North Carolina. Wazzu, OTOH, is hot or cold. They got blasted by UCLA in the first two games last weekend by scores of 12-3 and 12-3, then played a doubleheader on Monday in which they finished the rain-postponed series with the Bruins, beating them 10-4, then drove south to Long Beach to bombard Long Beach State 11-1. If the Trojans flip their close-game losses and win a one- or two-run affair this weekend, it could be a 12-11 affair. But this is Wazzu’s first conference home stand this year. I think it’ll be much closer than the 32 vs. 61 ISR pairing would indicate.
  • Wow, check out that ISR mismatch between UCLA and Utah. Then again, Utah’s ISR had to be much, much lower two weeks ago when they stole two wins from USC and then last week took one from Oregon. It seems unlikely they can twist magic out of thin air a third weekend in a row, especially against the Bruins, but this is their first Pac-12 home series.
  • This week’s nonconference series is a good one. The Golden Bears are licking their wounds after a 1-5 conference start, especially after an 11-4 start heading into conference play. Texas, conversely, had a horrible 7-8 nonconference start, then turned things around with a 5-1 conference record and now sit at 13-9 overall, the same overall record Cal has. (Correction: Cal just beat Fresno State tonight to make that 14-9.) Anyway, a good showing by Cal will boost their confidence coming back into conference play next week against USC.
    (Note: This is a four-game series played at the Dell Diamond in Round Rock, Texas, just 20 miles north of the Longhorns’ Austin campus. They will be opening up the triple-A Texas Rangers’ affiliate Round Rock Express’s 2012 season with this series, along with a single game between Baylor and Texas State. Remember: Do NOT vote on four games; vote only on the first three.)
3/29/2012 6:47:19 PM
No more Love at ASU for Lisa

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
"Hometown: Beaver Dam, Wis."

Ah, he's a Beaver fan. Cool beans!

Nice headline. About time somebody at ASU ate some Crow.
3/30/2012 12:27:44 AM
Pac-12 Predictions: Week 7

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Only 10 predictors so far this week. Still time for the stragglers to come in before first pitch tomorrow (5pm PDT), but we are down by 50% from last week (15), our high this season.

Stan 2-1
OSU 3-0
ASU 2-1
USC 2-1
UCLA 3-0
XTX 2-1
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