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Dodger Matt - all messages by user

4/17/2011 2:30:27 PM
Topic:
Oregon State vs. Stanford

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Dean McArdle goes 2.1 IP and leaves the bases loaded with one out and a 2-1 lead.
4/17/2011 3:44:41 PM
Topic:
Oregon State vs. Stanford

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Subfreshman Kavin Keyes is swinging the bat like a senior for the Beavs. Another two-out, 2-RBI single for Keyes, and the Beavers lead 5-2.
4/17/2011 5:19:54 PM
Topic:
Oregon State vs. Stanford

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Remember when the "experts" pegged OSU to finish between 6th and 9th?
Remember when they picked Duck U as the #2 team in the country?
4/17/2011 5:21:20 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 9 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Day three:

Oregon State 6, Stanford 4: The Cardinal scored twice in the 1st on freshman starter Scott Schultz, who settled down and put in 4.2 IP. Oregon State scored three in the 3rd on a couple of singles and a couple of walks. In the 7th, with two out and two in scoring position, Stanford decided to pitch to Kavin Keyes, who has torched Cardinal pitching all weekend, and he ripped another 2 RBI single into right field. Heading into the 9th with a 6-2 lead, freshman Ben Wetzler got the first two batters out before walking Ben Clowe and yielding a double to Brian Ragira. Reliever Tony Bryant replaced Wetzler and got two strikes on the next two batters, who both singled to score two. With two on and the winning run at the plate, Bryant got Jake Stewart swinging to end the game and complete the sweep, the Beavers' second in a row. Wetzler (5-1) got the win, Bryant got the save (5th); Stanford's Dean McArdle (2.1 IP) took the loss. Kavin Keyes, with a 14-game hitting streak, again led the Beavers at the plate going 2 for 5 with 3 RBIs.


Oregon State sweeps series 3-0.


UCLA 8, Arizona 5: UCLA scored one in the 1st, but Arizona tied it in the 2nd and tacked on two more in the 3rd. UCLA made it 3-2 in the 5th. trailing 5-3 entering the 7th, the Bruins plated two more to tie it 5-5. Pitching in the bottom of the 8th, Arizona releiver Matt Chaffee loaded the bases with two walks and a hit batsman. Beau Amaral doubled all three in for the winning runs.


UCLA wins series 2-1.


Arizona State 10, Washington State 4: Arizona State overpowers Washington State for a third straight game. Every Devil in the lineup had at least one hit, and four had multiple hits: Joey DeMichele (3 for 5, 1 RBI), Matt Newman and Andrew Aplin (both 2 for 4, 2 RBIs), and Riccio Torrez (2 for 5, 1 RBI). Wazzu committed 3 errors.


Arizona State sweeps series 3-0.


USC 3, Oregon 1: Oregon scored first, in the 3rd, with a double and a single. USC tied it in the 4th on Joe De Pinto's triple and a sac fly. The game remained tied 1-1 until the 8th, when USC scored two on a walk, a double, and a sac fly. Oregonian Logan Odom surrendered one run over 7.2 innings, but Chad Smith, who faced two batters, got the win for USC. Kellen Moen pitched one inning for the Ducks and took the loss.


USC wins series 2-1.


Cal 4, Washington 3: Dixon Anderson allowed a single in the 3rd and that was all until the 8th, when he surrendered back-to-back singles and a walk to load the bases with nobody out, and he was out of the game. A third single scored one, and a GIDP scored a second run, but the Huskies stranded the tying run on third. With the score 3-2 in the 9th, Cal's Marcus Semien homered to left for a huge insurance run. The Huskies scored one in the bottom of the 9th on a single and a double. With the tying run 90 feet away, the winning run on second, and two out, Matt Flemer struck out Reggie Jones to end the game, and the Golden Bears sweep the Huskies in Seattle.


Cal sweeps series 3-0.
4/17/2011 7:09:18 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 9 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Score analysis:
  • Nobody got all five series right.
  • The top three voters this week got four series right, missing only the Oregon State sweep.
  • The ASU sweep (correctly picked by 14/18) produced the highest average score: 5.29.
  • The OSU sweep (correctly picked by 0/18) produced the lowest average score: 2.24.
And the scores:
  • 23 BeaverBeliever20
  • 23 BeaverQuist
  • 23 MostUnknown
  • 21 BballJones
  • 21 SouthernBeaver
  • 20 ASU74
  • 18 2Bulldogs
  • 18 cas77
  • 18 Dodger Matt
  • 18 Florida Beaver
  • 18 Lute31
  • 18 OregonStateChris
  • 18 SouthCoastStu
  • 17 opihi man
  • 15 BeaverBob
  • 14 CaughtBySparky
  • 14 RiverDuck
  • 14 WildCard85

edited by Dodger Matt on 4/17/2011
4/17/2011 8:03:07 PM
Topic:
Oregon State vs. Stanford

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Here's the link: http://www.pac-10.org/News/tabid/863/Article/219882/pac-10-baseball-coaches-pick-ucla-as-2011-favorite.aspx


2011 Pac-10 Baseball Preseason Coaches’ Poll
1. UCLA (8) 79
2. Stanford (2) 66
3. Arizona State 60
4. Oregon 59
5. Arizona 48
6. California 46
7. Washington State 37
8. Oregon State 28
9. USC 16
10. Washington 11


And here's what the standings look like today:

1. Oregon State
2. California
3. UCLA
4. Arizona State
5. USC
6. Arizona
7. Stanford
8. Oregon
9. Washington
10. Washington State
4/17/2011 11:33:12 PM
Topic:
Oregon State vs. Stanford

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
BeaverBob wrote:
Beavers -- so far so good. However, a long ways to go. I'm really concerned about the Cougs this next weekend. They tend to struggle with WSU. I'd hate to see WSU decide to starting playing ball against the Beavs.

Right. My concern too. But it will be at home. I still think the Cougs will wait another week to start winning again (Apple Cup series).

Trivia: Wazzu is the team that has the most wins over Oregon State. In fact, if we were to sweep them every year for eleven years straight, we'd still not break even.
4/18/2011 11:09:27 AM
Topic:
Oregon State vs. Stanford

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Florida Beaver wrote:
B1B,
Yeah, well. It's no fun kicking a team (or a fan) when they are down. Such high expectations were held for this year's duckling team, to have it almost all come to naught (As of yet, the season ain't over) has really have to depress them.


The problem was last year was an aberration. They played far better than they should have given the previous year's results, and that has skewed Duck fans' expectations. This year is probably where they should have been last year, and the very successful season they had in 2010 should not have occurred until next year, IMO. The few Duck fans I've seen on these boards are expressing doubts about their team and whether to continue supporting them. That's crazy. Baseball is not a sport you can throw milions of dollars at and get a national championship in in two seasons. But I think there are Duck fans who are already disappointed they are not at the top of the conference standings.

Last year's (premature) success could turn out to be detrimental to the program.
4/18/2011 6:42:57 PM
Topic:
What poll do you put the least amount of stock in?

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Throwing my voice in with all the other Beaver fans here. I used to track all the rankings and use some averages to determine which one or two were the most clueless and which were pretty spot on. Haven't done that this year, but Kendall's always made a lot of sense and seemed the most accurate IMO. I found the USA Today to be the farthest removed from reality and seemingly more popularity and "name brand" based.

That said, I am surprised how lame the NCBW poll has been this year. Yes, like other Beaver fans, I am using Oregon State as my yardstick (I think most fans do the same), but how can these "baseball writers" put OSU where they have? Just to pick a few examples, they have OSU at #15 and ASU at #6. But OSU has a better record (27-7 vs. 25-9), we swept ASU three games to none, and our ISR is better (7 vs. 9). The only thing the Devils have is a higher Rat's Patootie Index (10 vs. 4). If every other measurement says OSU is better, including head-to-head performance (hard to disregard), why does a six-slot difference in RPI warrant a nine-slot difference in ranking?

And if RPI is that all-important criterion the writers are using to insert ASU so much higher than the Beavers, why then do they also rank these other teams above OSU?

#4 Texas (=W, +2L, -9 ISR, -10 RPI)
#7 TCU (-2W, +4L, -20 ISR, -27 RPI)
#9 Texas A&M (-1W, +3L, -6 ISR, -3 RPI)
#11 Oklahoma (-1W, +3L, -15 ISR, -15 RPI)
#12 Arkansas (-1W, +2L, -8 ISR, -1 RPI)

Aaron Fitt (Baseball America) and Kendall (Perfect Game) do the best job IMO.
NCBWA poll is by far the least reliable and probably least thought out.
edited by Dodger Matt on 4/18/2011
4/19/2011 12:19:41 AM
Topic:
What poll do you put the least amount of stock in?

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
SB, that would make sense given the teams on that list are all from the old Southwestern Conference area.
4/19/2011 1:08:33 PM
Topic:
TRANSCRIPT: My weekly college baseball chat (link)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Kendall, I know you are impressed with the Beavers of late, and it sounds like you might make another positive change this week if they continue to do to Wazzu what they've done the last two weeks against ASU and Stanford, but let's correct one misperception vis-a-vis that two-game set against Fresno State in February.


We moved the Beavers up one spot, and we're still keeping them behind Fresno State for now. The Bulldogs beat the Beavers twice with their best vs. the Beavers best, so that's our thinking of that order. Right now, it's all about the Beavers find a way to move up. With that said, what they're doing in the absence of some talented players is simply amazing. Coach Casey is doing a phenomenal job this season and i'm intrigued to see if they can keep it up the entire season. Having a guy like Gaviglio starting off the weekend on the mound has been a Godsend for this club.


In the first game, we threw untested freshman Cam Booser in his very first game as a college player. He went 4.2 IP and surrendered 2 ERs to take the loss, 2-1.

In the second game, Josh Osich, not fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, pitched 1.2 innings and gave up 3 runs in a 5-4 loss. Yes, Osich is our Saturday pitcher, but the Bulldogs did not face Gaviglio, Wetzler, or Nygren.

I have no doubt that in a three-game series or even in a regional, Oregon State would take care of Fresno State. Not to say that FSU is an easy opponent; they've been doing very well and deserve the accolades they've received. But they certainly did not face the Beavers' best, and the outcome would almost certainly have turned out differently if they had.

PS: Forgot to mention that the losing "pitcher" in that second game was one of our middle infielders, Ryan Dunn. I haven't looked closely at the FSU pitching staff to see who their hurlers were that weekend, but I'm guessing they didn't throw freshmen and infielders.
edited by Dodger Matt on 4/19/2011
4/19/2011 6:56:36 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 10 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Let's get an early start this week because it's Easter this Sunday, which means the games begin on Thursday.

Here are the games. Numbers in parentheses are ISRs as of 4/18, place in conference, and rank by Perfect Game (when applicable).


  • ASU (ISR 9, 4th, 13 PG) at Cal (ISR 12, 2nd, 16 PG
  • UCLA (ISR 30, 3rd, 20 PG) at Stan (ISR 17, 7th, - PG)
  • WSU (ISR 52, 10th, - PG) at OSU (ISR 7, 1st, 9 PG)
  • Ariz (ISR 28, 6th, 23) at Ore (ISR 64, 8th, - PG)
  • USC (ISR 69, 5th, - PG) at UW (ISR 172, 9th, - PG)

The top series this week is 4th place ASU at 2nd place Cal. On paper, these teams look incredibly close. Give ASU the edge, but playing on the road has to even it up again. Since this series features two of the top four teams contending for the conference title, a series loss could knock the loser out of contention.
Next, 3rd place UCLA visits 7th place Stanford. That's a misleading 7th place, however, as Stanford's ISR attests, so this series shold be closer than those standings would indicate. UCLA is actually tied for second with Cal, buttheir overall record is lower, which is why I put them in 3rd place. But this series could have consequences on the conference championship, if UCLA does not prevail.
Last place Wazzu visits first place Oregon State. The way these teams are playing, this should be no contest, but Wazzu is OSU's nemesis in baseball. The Cougs own an all-time record of 224-185 against the Beavers. It'll take at least 11 years of sweeping the Cougs for Oregon State to get to the .500 mark. Is this weekend the start of that streak?
In Eugene, 6th place Arizona takes on the 8th place Ducks. Both teams are struggling for postseason legitimacy. This series could likely doom one...or both.
And lastly, 5th place USC visits 9th place Washington. The Huskies have proven they can play, with a series victory over Oregon two weeks ago.
But USC has proven it better, with series wins over Oregon and Stanford. Plus they took one game each from both Cal and UCLA, teams that swept the Huskies.
The reminders:

  • Vote for the team you expect to win and whether the results will be 3-0 or 2-1.
  • Pick teams in the exact order posted. This makes it easier for me to tabulate.
  • Use the team abbreviations listed in the sample below. (This means NO to "Furd" "UA" "WASH", etc.)
  • You can change your picks up until first pitch of the first game.
  • There are no prizes. We play for glory.
Points are awarded in the following manner:

Pick . . Result . . Pts.
3-0 . . . 3-0 . . . . . 6
. . . . . . 2-1 . . . . . 3
. . . . . . 1-2 . . . . . 1
. . . . . . 0-3 . . . . . 0

2-1 . . . 3-0 . . . . . 3
. . . . . . 2-1 . . . . . 4
. . . . . . 1-2 . . . . . 2
. . . . . . 0-3 . . . . . 1

A sample poll would look like this:

ASU 3-0
Stan 2-1
WSU 2-1
Ore 3-0
UW 3-0
4/19/2011 7:05:54 PM
Topic:
Question about RPI

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Yes, the SEC benefits from the inaccuracies of the Rat's Patootie Index hugely every year. Since the RPI is not as good as the ISR (see Boyd's World for ISRs and pseudo-RPIs), Western fans (from Texas to the Pacific and beyond) typically use the ISRs instead. The RPI is really only good to see how the selection committee will likely place seeds. Then when they get to the bubble teams, it becomes only one of the factors, and not as heavily relied on as it was, say five years ago, the way I understand it.

I do not think the SEC will get ten teams in the tournament.
4/20/2011 12:09:38 AM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 10 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Riverduck wrote:
Cal 2-1
UCLA 2-1
WSU 1-2
Ore- 3-0
USC 2-1

Thanks for the vote of confidence BB, I agree with you, but i am jaded.. lol

River, I need you to clarify that OSU score. WSU 1-2 is not an option. Do you mean WSU 2-1 or OSU 2-1?
4/20/2011 12:21:36 AM
Topic:
Question about RPI

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Tell me about it. It's allegedly because their competition is so much better than yours. Take a look at the other OSU two lines below yours. We have a better RPI (10 to your 23), yet we supposedly have no chance of reaching that magical national seed octet. And it's all because of that number on the far right....
4/20/2011 8:26:30 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 10 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Lotta newbies this week (which is good, to be expected...as this board grows). Those new to the game: I do like to know which Pac-10 team you root for. If you're outside the conference and just want to play, that's cool too. But if you pull for one particular team, let me know.

ASU74: That's the "boldest" (I might even use another superlative) prediction I've seen in a long time, but not outside plausibility. The more sweeps you predict, the greater the reward if you win, but also the greater the penalty if you lose, so good luck to you.

Lastly, I still need a response from RiverDuck about the OSU/WSU series. Right now you have a big yellow ZERO next to your name for that series, so give me the right prediction before tomorrow evening.
4/20/2011 10:02:23 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 10 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
SouthernBeaver wrote:
can't believe I'm jumping to the defense of a duck fan (one-time thing!), but I think if he doesn't see this in time, it would be fair to assume he means WSU will win the series 2-1 rather than give him a zero. He is, afterall, probably rooting for them heavily, and as you said, we tend to predict wins that we want sometimes, rather than what we think will happen.


OR...he simply refuses to say OSU 2-1 and sez Wazzu will go 1-2. As it is, I can at most provide him with one point regardless, since he'd have to vote for a sweep and get zero wins to yield a big yellow zero. But that's as far as I go. ;-)
4/21/2011 11:19:13 AM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 10 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
ASU-Cal starts early. So here are my picks....

ASU 2-1
UCLA 2-1
OSU 3-0
Ariz 2-1
USC 2-1

Flipped on the UCLA-Stanford pick. I think Stanford is due, but it is hard to bet against Cole and Bauer.
4/21/2011 6:27:14 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 10 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
if you couldnt tell from my signature i root for the beavers

Ah yes. We all know that Guests are Beaver fans. ;-)

Tip o' the day: Avoid that lame "quick reply" link at the bottom unless you want to be anonymous.
BTW, I root for the beer.
4/21/2011 6:32:42 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: Week 10 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Riverduck wrote:
Fixed it Dodger-just before the game lol

Okay, River. I was beginning to wonder about that expensive Duck education you got there. You have convinced me that everything is right with Duck U smarts, and I guess now my world is back to normal. ;-)

Just so you know: You are in the extreme minority on that vote. That could lead to an unusually higher score when everyone else tanks, or (more likely) an unusually low score. We'll see what happens.

Thanks for playing. We need more Ducks. And Bruins, Wildcats, Trees, Huskies, Cougars, Bears, Trojans, oh my....
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