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Dodger Matt - all messages by user

6/7/2011 9:10:50 PM
Topic:
Hardest and Easiest Supers

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
You're right when you say the hardest is also the easiest when you consider from the opposite team's perspective. Probably a better way to look at it is, which regional is the most mismatched (hardest and easiest), and which is the most evenly matched.

Most mismatched
  • SoCar over UConn
  • Florida over Miss State
  • Cal over Dallas Baptist
Most evenly matched (favored listed first)
  • UNC versus Stanford
  • Arizona State versus Texas
  • Vandy versus Oregon State
6/7/2011 11:31:23 PM
Topic:
Hardest and Easiest Supers

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
shoelessT wrote:
You don't think FSU vs Texas AM is mismatched? FSU can freakin hit the ball and I know they don't have a 2nd pitcher but Texas AM lost their ace and that is huge. FSU is a good offensive club and I just think they are gonna beat Texas AM bad.

I mention six of the eight, but.... I'll try harder next time.

I didn't think the Aggies would escape their own regional, and they nearly didn't. FSU is favored and should win, but I don't see these teams as far apart as the others mentioned. I would even say UVa-UCI is probably a bigger mismatch than FSU-aTm.
6/8/2011 6:26:45 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: SUPER REGIONAL PREDICTIONS

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
borgguy wrote:
i know that these arent on par with the usual level that DM provides, however i hope this helps everyone.

Ha. Don't sell yourself short, man, you done good.

One note to unc70: Stanford is playing (right now) much better than they have throughout the season. Mark Appel's record looks cheesy compared to Patrick Johnson's, but he dealt against CSF in their house. Plus Stanford knows how to trap balls and sell it to umps that they have made awesome catches. The Heels could end up getting their balls trapped.
6/9/2011 12:59:03 PM
Topic:
Nashville SR: Who has the edge? (preview)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
As always, Kendall, excellent preview. There's one arm in our bullpen that you missed--but it's understandable as he has been out most of the season with an injury and has only made a handful of appearances in the last month--and that is Adam Duke. A freshman, whose stats look poor because of one bad outing in his first comeback appearance, he may be good for a couple of relief innings this weekend, and he has been looking much better in each successive appearance.
6/9/2011 5:23:46 PM
Topic:
****SUPER REGIONALS PREDICTIONS****

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
OpihiMan wrote:
Don't get me wrong...I'm pulling for the Beavs all the way, but realistically home field advantage is ridiculous in the SR's. I want the Beavers to win but I respect Vandy's talent. If this was played in Corvallis it'd be an easy 2-1 (maybe even 2-0) OS pick.

On HFA, you might be right based on a strictly numbers/percentage standpoint, but that is not just HFA speaking (which, in baseball, is the weakest "advantage" in terms of sports); a heavy component of that is the fact that the home team in the SRs is almost always the stronger, more dominant team. Remember, however, that OSU was ranked above Vanderbilt not long ago and would (should?) have been a national seed as well, barring the collapse against SC and DuckU. I'd say we are an underrated visiting team. Do you think SoCar would not still be favored visiting Connecticut? HFA only goes so far in baseball. This road SR is winnable.
6/9/2011 8:18:05 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: SUPER REGIONAL PREDICTIONS

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Lute31 wrote:
Wow, Seth Blair is coming back to pitch this weekend??!! I think you have the wrong years stats in from of you. Maybe Mike Leake is available too.

Lute. The Fork is strong within you. Use the Fork. Play this round. You don't need to have played all season; it's a one week and done thing.

BeaverBeliever20, I need a tiebreaker score from you.

Ten picks so far.
6/9/2011 8:49:17 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: SUPER REGIONAL PREDICTIONS

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
I'm with Pac-10 Happy (Florida Beaver), but since I'm still recovering from a cold, call me Pac-10 Sneezy. (Now if we could only get a pot-smoking Duck fan to vote, we could call him Pac-10 Dopey.)

ASU 2-0
Cal 2-0
OSU 2-1
Stan 2-1
Tiebreaker: 21 (I don't think this score will be this high, but it's better to be within a certain range than right on.)

I don't see any of these series being foregone conclusions, and although I would be surprised if all four fail to advance, it would not shock me to see all four series go to three games and for only one Pac-10 team to make it through. We are definitely underdogs in the latter two (especially with Osich iffy at best or out absolutely, as some are reporting).
6/9/2011 9:09:01 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: SUPER REGIONAL PREDICTIONS

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
This is not information you could not get anywhere else, but it helps to see some of the ratings side by side (Boyd's ISRs, Massey, and the pseudo-Rat's Patootie).

Conf Team W L Pct. Boyd Msey RPI

PAC Cal 35 21 0.625 16 16 37
Ind DBU 42 18 0.700 48 42 40

B12 Texas 47 16 0.746 13 12 11
PAC ASU 42 16 0.724 6 5 7

ACC UNC 48 14 0.774 4 3 1
PAC Stanford 35 20 0.636 9 8 13

SEC Vandy 50 10 0.833 1 2 4
PAC OSU 41 17 0.707 10 10 22
6/10/2011 12:00:40 AM
Topic:
****SUPER REGIONALS PREDICTIONS****

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Virginia 2-1
California 2-0
Florida State 2-1
South Carolina 2-0

Florida 2-0
Arizona State 2-0
Oregon State 2-1
Stanford 2-1
6/10/2011 12:23:36 AM
Topic:
Nashville SR: Who has the edge? (preview)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Here's a story on Duke in the Oregonian. He could be our secret weapon. Cool
6/10/2011 11:36:14 AM
Topic:
Pac-10: SUPER REGIONAL PREDICTIONS

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Thought we would have had more participants here, but with the first Pac-10 game starting at noon and 11 votes, here is the analysis:
     2-0  2-1  1-2  0-2      W  L  Pct. 
Cal 8 2 1 0 : 10 1 0.909
ASU 2 6 3 0 : 8 3 0.727
OSU 3 4 3 1 : 7 4 0.636
Stan 0 5 4 2 : 5 6 0.455
Granted,this is a Pac-10 friendly (even happy at times) thread, but Stanford is the only team not expected by a majority to advance. Their largest single vote (mode average) was for a 2-1 victory, however. Cal is an overwhelming favorite, with 8/11 predicting a sweep. I voted that way myself, but I don't expect DBU to go down quietly.
6/10/2011 6:33:32 PM
Topic:
Beavers/Dores

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Wow, Sammy has four walks already. A 4-0 hole is gonna be hard to climb out of.


Yes, sorry. I just realized that.
edited by Dodger Matt on 6/10/2011
6/10/2011 7:11:32 PM
Topic:
Beavers/Dores

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Well, that's pretty much it. 8-0 and Sammy's totally not on his game tonight. The only hope is the Beavers show a little offense and build some confidence heading into tomorrow's game.

Very disappointing.
6/11/2011 6:00:50 PM
Topic:
MSU Walk-off

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
I thought the Bulldogs would have lost in two, but it's good to see them take it to a game three. I'm pretty much pulling for all the underdogs in these supers.
6/11/2011 11:36:33 PM
Topic:
Beavers/Dores

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Sad ending to a better than expected season. The Beavers clearly did not play in this super regional the way they typically played. Not saying Vandy was not good; they were. But Oregon State was not playing well, and that's a shame. But congratulations to the Dores and enjoy your first trip to Omaha.
6/13/2011 6:43:26 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: SUPER REGIONAL PREDICTIONS

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Scores:
  • 23 ASU74
  • 18 BeaverBob
  • 18 opihi man
  • 16 borgguy
  • 15 Neutral Arbiter
  • 14 YellowlabOSU
  • 13 SouthernBeaver
  • 12 BeaverBeliever20
  • 12 MostUnknown
  • 10 Dodger Matt
  • 9 Florida Beaver
Score analysis:
  • ASU74 got three of the four super regionals right, only missing Stanford.
  • Two people (BeaverBob and borgguy) got two supers right.
  • One person got none right; it was not the lowest scorer, however.
  • Top super was Cal/DBU: 8/11 got it right for an average score of 6.09.
  • 3/11 got ASU 1-2; 2/11 picked Stanford 0-2.
  • One person picked OSU 0-2, which was also our lowest average score: 2.00.
  • Cal is the only one of four Pac-10 teams to advance to Omaha.
6/13/2011 11:49:38 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: SUPER REGIONAL PREDICTIONS

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Fred, I think you're right. It takes folks a couple weeks to find us, so starting with a preseason warmup is a good idea.

Bob, it was mutual. Nice meeting you and putting a face to one of the forum aliases I've known for three-plus seasons. Now onto one of my other obsessions....
2/12/2012 2:43:25 PM
Topic:
DM!!! You out there Buddy?

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
FB, I'm here. Been putting it off getting started, but I'll get on it today. Well, looks like Connor beat me to it! Maybe I'll tag on to his topic.
2/12/2012 3:00:02 PM
Topic:
PAC 11/12 Pre-Season

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
ASU74 wrote:
Well it is almost that time again. Someone give DM a shake & wake him up from the winter slumbers and let's start some prediction PT. Time for everyone to brag about how their team will do this year...too early for trash talk except probably the Oregon boys. It seems it is always open season for Ducks or Beavers depending upon your perspective.


Okay, I'm awake. The countdown on the Beaver baseball page says 4 days and 23 hours.... I know that's cutting it close, but we're starting the predictions earlier this year than ever before, and I still need to work on my system.
2/12/2012 3:04:43 PM
Topic:
National College Baseball Pick'Em: Introduction

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Okay, Connor. I just realized you intend to do this for the national scene, not just Pac-12. Right on. Looking forward to it.
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