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Dodger Matt - all messages by user

5/30/2011 11:54:55 AM
Topic:
UALR

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Sigsky, that's why we SHOULD NOT HAVE conference tournaments. The 8th place team in the Sun Belt wins its tournament and gets in? Why are they even in their tournament? These conferences that do this to the rest of college baseball should be limited to one bid only. If you, Mr. Sun Belt Conference Commissioner, are willing to throw away the chances of legitimate postseason teams like Troy, FIU, Lou-La, and WKU to allow a dog like Old UALR steal the conference autobid, then go ahead with your stupid 8-team conference tournament. But nobody else gets in if a team lower than 4th place in your league wins the autobid.

That's how I see it.
5/30/2011 12:16:57 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: POSTSEASON PREDICTIONS

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Updated original post. Place your picks.
5/30/2011 1:01:28 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: POSTSEASON PREDICTIONS

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
I know folks are going to be voting already, but I wanted to throw in my amateur analysis.

Here's the order in which I think the committee ranked these teams, from top to bottom:
  • 6 Arizona State
  • 14 Oregon State
  • 18 UCLA
  • 16 Stanford
  • 21 Arizona
  • 23 California
Let's look at them one at a time:
  • 6 Arizona State
  • 22 Arkansas
  • 78 Charlotte
  • 135 New Mexico
This looks a like a good even pairing. Charlotte's ISR is a little low for a #3. (Their RPI is 76.) But Arkansas is a good enough team to give ASU a fight.
  • 14 Oregon State
  • 25 Creighton
  • 32 Georgia
  • 157 Arkansas-Little Rock
This regional has two #2 seeds. In fact, from a Rat's Patootie perspective, Creighton and Georgia both have higher RPIs than OSU (29 and 17 respectively, compared to 31). Creighton supposedly has an excellent defense. And Georgia, inconsistent conference play notwithstanding, has some decent signature victories. Whichever of those teams faces OSU in the second game could give the Beavers some trouble.
  • 18 UCLA
  • 11 Fresno State
  • 17 UC Irvine
  • 49 San Francisco
Every year the west has a Regional of Death, and this is it. In terms of ISR, the #1 seed Bruins are only the third best team here. even USF, at 49, is a good team, one of the best 4 seeds out there. UCI did not have the banner year many expected, and Fresno dropped in their last couple weekends to lose their own hosting opportunity, but both teams could bite the Bruins. That said, I'm not sure that UCLA, with the way they're playing and with that starting rotation, is going to lose this regional.
  • 8 CS Fullerton
  • 16 Stanford
  • 43 Kansas State
  • 137 Illinois
Another epic matchup between top 16 (ISR and RPI) CSF and Stanford teams. The Cardinal have some good wins, but they seem to have underperformed all year. KSU is a good #3, but I think they will be overshadowed by the top two teams in this regional. Illinois enjoys some sunshine in LA and hopes for a win.
  • 10 Texas A&M
  • 21 Arizona
  • 89 Seton Hall
  • 117 Wright State
Seton Hall stole the BE championship with an 8-game winning streak, or they would not be here. They are a low 3, but their ace, Joe Dirocco (8-1 1.68 ERA), could be worth an upset. If Arizona gets by him, aTm looks beatable to me.
  • 13 Rice (#8)
  • 41 Baylor
  • 23 California
  • 219 Alcorn State
This regional looks like the toughest for a Pac-10 to win. Disregard the fact that Baylor (a legitimate #3) and Cal are reversed in seeding; it makes little difference. But Cal will have to play consistent baseball for at least three games, something they have not done for over a month. Rice is probably a little overrated to be a national seed, but they are still top 16 caliber. If Cal can get through Rice (a tall order), they would face the winner of the TCU regional, which would be the easiest of the projected super regional matchups.
5/30/2011 1:59:06 PM
Topic:
Any chance that both Rice and Texas A&M...

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Walt wrote:
Rice won both the regular season and conference tournament championship of the #5th ranked conference (virtually tied with the Pac-10)....


Walt continues to hang his hat on this conference RPI thing, trying to compare C-USA favorably to the Pac-10. Virtually tied!

Look at the conference ISRs:

           Division I   Overall
Rank Rating W L W L SoS Conference
1 114.4 310 236 310 236 1 Pac 10
2 114.1 418 272 418 272 2 SEC
3 112.8 404 277 404 277 3 ACC
4 112.0 335 234 335 234 5 Big 12
5 109.3 294 220 294 220 8 C-USA
6 108.3 247 239 247 239 4 Big West
C-USA, as everyone has been saying for years: Virtually tied with the Big West for 5th best conference!
5/30/2011 8:27:05 PM
Topic:
36-20, RPI of 26 = Not in the field...

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
ccox11 wrote:
I would rather be 9th in the SEC than 2nd in the Big East any day.
Wait. Really? Well then you got your wish. Why the complaining?
5/30/2011 10:07:26 PM
Topic:
STORY: Dissecting the NCAA selections (5/30)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Weiser:
"I would have to say that as I reflect to the past few days, I think our committee perhaps did a better job of putting the RPI where it should be as a single tool to evaluate with," Weiser said. "Sometimes it becomes bigger than it should be. We didn't use the RPI as the hammer that we have in previous years."

Realization starts to sink in. Good.
5/31/2011 11:28:07 AM
Topic:
Maine Head Coach Trimper oozes class....

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Heels2Omaha wrote:
Here's what he had to say about being sent to Chapel Hill....

“One nice thing is we’re very familiar with Chapel Hill,” said Maine coach Steve Trimper. “We not only played them there in ‘06, we played that three-game series there last year and knocked them off with two freshman pitchers, Jeff Gibbs and Steve Perakslis. “I guarantee they’re shaking in their boots right now because they know we have some good arms going down there,” said Trimper.

Yep Coach, you're right....the Heels are absolutely petrified.
When I read your subject, I thought you were either sincerely complimenting the Maine coach (which I would have like to read about) or you were being sarcastic. I see that it was the latter. That's a shame because you used to be a bit more positive, but c'est la vie.

The irony here is that you are dishing out sarcasm, but I wonder if you can't detect it from this coach's comments. I did not see him state this, and perhaps there was no sarcasm in his delivery, but the bare text looks so patently ludicrous I can't see how anyone could view it as anything but tongue in cheek. How many coaches at any level say of even conference foes that are comparable to their own teams that the opponents are "shaking in their boots"? This reads like self-deprecatory hyperbole to me. Maine (171 ISR) has UNC (3 ISR) shaking in their boots? Do you really believe he is saying this unequivocally? Do you really think making a joke of being tremendous underdogs is being classless?
5/31/2011 7:32:25 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: POSTSEASON PREDICTIONS

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
I know it's early, but where are all the prognosticators? This thread is getting buried....
5/31/2011 10:27:29 PM
Topic:
UCLA Regional

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Hmm. SMEagle fans getting testy over not getting a host and picking on UCLA, whom they believe stole theirs. Precious!
6/1/2011 12:17:03 AM
Topic:
WCC Championship: USF v. Gonzaga

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Another victim.

Just kidding. They're probably the best 4 seed in the tournament. (Possible exception: Oral Roberts.) But the WCC single-bid team is usually the best 4 seed in the West's annual Region of Death, and here it is. They could win a game or two. Or go 0-2 and contribute to most people's ignorant opinion that the WCC is weak.
6/1/2011 12:57:48 PM
Topic:
UCLA Regional

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
eagleboy415 wrote:
When UCLA has averages more than 500 for a top 5 matchup, come talk to me Dodger.

About what?
6/1/2011 1:06:12 PM
Topic:
WCC Championship: USF v. Gonzaga

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
San Diego had a chance a couple years ago when they were a legitimate 1 seed, but they tanked in their own regional. That was a golden opportunity missed. Getting one team in the postseason, and that team not being ranked suffiently high enough not to be the best 4 seed in the nation means the WCC representative will always be the ROD's sacrificial lamb. Even if Gonzaga had landed an atlarge, they would have been bused to Corvallis, perhaps as a low 3, but with the same result. Perhaps adding BYU (and Seattle?) will change the conference dynamics and allow for more postseason opportunities for WCC teams. Good luck to the Dons, regardless.
6/1/2011 10:10:37 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: POSTSEASON PREDICTIONS

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
I usually don't pick well in these things, probably because I know less about the competition and
overvalue familiar conference foes and their strengths. Nonetheless, I feel pretty bullish on the
conference's chances. I don't see Stanford or Cal advancing, but I think they can take one from the
host. Arizona I give a 50-50 chance to beat aTm. They have the bats, but after Heyer and Simon,
I don't know if they have the arms.

Ariz 3+
ASU 3-0
Cal 3+
OSU 3-0
Stan 3+
UCLA 3-0

Had to edit my post so it could be seen. Bob, we ned to remove your wide beer pic or something...
edited by Dodger Matt on 6/1/2011
6/2/2011 12:24:09 AM
Topic:
Pac-10: POSTSEASON PREDICTIONS

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Can't get image resizing to work, but there's a message in your inbox.
6/2/2011 7:49:23 AM
Topic:
Everyone's sleepers

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Arizona. I think aTm is going down.
6/2/2011 6:38:44 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: POSTSEASON PREDICTIONS

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
ISR Probabilities

Boyd has his probabilities out. Before you Beaver fans freak out, you have to understand that these
are based on each team's ISR for every level of the competition until you get to that 2.0% chance
for OSU to win the NC. The percentages will all change after the first round, when we will get at
least one or two upsets. The important thing is to look at what our projected chances are for this
round. Oregon State has a 72% chance of advancing. The SEC darling that the Rivals board has
already crowned the regional winner has an 11% chance, less than Creighton (who looks more
impressive to me on paper anyway).

All Pac-10 teams
ASU:    80.2%
OSU: 71.8%
UCLA: 34.0%
Ariz: 28.6%
Stan: 23.8%
Cal: 17.4%
6/3/2011 12:31:10 AM
Topic:
Pac-10: POSTSEASON PREDICTIONS

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Okay, I think that's about all the votes we're gonna get (12). Here's your pick analysis:
       3    3+   2    1    0          W    L    Pct. 
OSU 4 7 1 0 0 : 11 1 0.917
ASU 4 7 1 0 0 : 11 1 0.917
UCLA 7 3 2 0 0 : 10 2 0.833
Stan 1 5 6 0 0 : 6 6 0.500
Ariz 0 3 8 1 0 : 3 9 0.250
Cal 0 1 5 6 0 : 1 11 0.083
Just note that the "W" (wins) columns is a tad misleading because the 3+ vote is not exactly a vote that that team will advance; it is a vote that that team will finish with a winning record (3-1, 3-2, or 4-1). Probably an advance, but not necessarily. So....

OSU and ASU have the same number of folks predicting success, with UCLA not far behind. Stanford is right in the middle, maybe even below it because 5 of their 6 Ws are 3+ votes. Arizona and Cal are not given much of a chance to advance.

Good luck to everyone, especially the players.
6/3/2011 12:40:11 AM
Topic:
PREVIEW: Looking at the Corvallis Regional

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
I would throw Osich game one and Gaviglio game two. I don't think UALR will be able to do much against Osich even if he has a bad day. And if Sammy runs into trouble early in the second game, we pull him so we can possibly use him in a game five. But if we take those two, we're sitting pretty regardless.
6/3/2011 12:44:21 AM
Topic:
ESPN3.com's Broadcast Schedule (4 regionals)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
jdh008 wrote:
I'm sure it's not the only regional offering this, but you can watch every game of the College Station regional online at aggieathletics.com.
Thanks, but my interest level in the College Station regional is almost zero.

jk. I'd watch Arizona.
6/3/2011 3:24:43 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: POSTSEASON PREDICTIONS

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
SouthernBeaver wrote:
zona just lost their first game, though it would have taken a big upset otherwise, so it was to be expected.
I was unable to check stats and live game updates. Did Seton Hall have a good ace? Arizona has some decent bats, and I expected a better offensive showing. Now they will be lucky to go 2-2.
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