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5/29/2011 12:01:58 AM
Pac-10: Week 15 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Day two

Oregon 4, Oregon State 1: The Beavers took a 1-0 lead in the 3rd on Ryan Barnes’s two-out infield single and Brian Stamps’s triple to knock Barnes in. The Ducks erased that deficit in the bottom half of the frame with a three-run, two-out, 0-2 double by Aaron Jones. Oregon tacked on an insurance run in the bottom of the 6th on a single, a sac bunt, and another single to take a 4-1 lead, and that was the game. OSU put Adam Duke in the 8th to give him a little more experience going into the postseason (something the Ducks won’t experience this year). Christian Jones (7-2) earned the win for the Ducks, while Josh Osich (6-4) took the loss. The Beavers have now lost four in a row--which is twice as long as any losing streak they’ve had all season--and 5 of their last 6. Any chance of a national seed for the Beavers is gone now. The Beavers must win tomorrow and hope ASU defeats UCLA to claim a share of the conference title.

Oregon leads series 2-0.

UCLA 7, ASU 0: Another ho-hum complete game shutout for Trevor Bauer. He struck out 14 and walked none, giving up 5 hits. Dean Espy, from nearby Mesa, AZ, was awesome at the plate, going 4 for 4 with 2 RBIs and a home run. With the win and the Beavers’ loss, UCLA is now in sole possession of first place in thee conference and guaranteed a share. If UCLA wins tomorrow or Oregon State loses, the Bruins will be outright champions.

UCLA leads series 2-0.

Stanford 4, California 2 (Game 1): Tony Renda went 2 for 4 for Cal. Austin Wilson led the Cardinal at the plate going 3 for 4 with 2 RBIs. Jordan Pries (5-5) went 7.1 IP for the Cardinal. Long-haired unkempt sophomore Justin Jones (7-6) went 8 IP and took the loss.

Stanford 7, California 1 (Game 2, INCOMPLETE): This game was suspended on account of rain in the top of the 4th in the midst of a Stanford four-run scoring streak. It appears, from both Stanford’s and Cal’s websites, that this game will not be resumed and will be discounted as a real game. This has not happened before with our voting, and I’ve not had to make adjustment for it, so here it is on the fly: Since Stanford led for the entire 3.5 innings, for purposes of determining wins-losses, it will count as a Stanford win.

Stanford wins series 2(plus 1)-0.

Arizona 6, Washington 5: Chase Anselment tripled with two out in the 2nd then scored on a Will Sparks single to give the Huskies a 1-0 lead. But Arizona tied it in the 4th and added two in the 6th and 8th innings to take a commanding 5-1 lead going into the 9th. With two out and a runner on second, the Huskies hit the comeback trail. They got two aboard via HBP to load the bases. Two successive pinch hit singles scored three, and a third single scored a fourth run to tie the game 5-5. In the bottom of the 9th, with two out and runners at first and second, Bobby Rinard hit a tie-breaking single for the win. Alex Mejia was 3 for 4 with 3 RBIs for the Cats. B.K. Santy led the Dawgs with a 1 for 1 pinch hit 2 RBI performance.

Arizona leads series 2-0.

Washington State 10, USC 2: Kevin Roundtree led off for the Trojans with a triple, then scored on Ricky Oropesa’s one-out single, to give USC a 1-0 lead. The Cougars erased that lead with a two-run homer in the 4th by Taylor Ard. After a walk, a groundout, a single, and another walk to load the bases, Niceville’s Austin Wood hit Trace Tam Sing to score another run. Kyle Richter was then called in to relive Wood and gave up a two-run single to Collin Slaybaugh. Then Tam Sing stole home, and Cody Bartlett singled Slaybaugh home for a 7-1 Wazzu lead. J.R. Aguirre doubled in a run for the Trojans in the 7th to make it 7-2. Wazzu scored another run in the 8th, then two in the 9th on a two-run homer by Patrick Claussen. Collin Slaybaugh finished 3 for 5 for the Cougs.

Series tied, 1-1.
5/29/2011 1:59:32 AM
WCC Championship: USF v. Gonzaga

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Sunday's rubber game to decide the champion. That's the way to finish a season.

Cityball, are you a Don fan? The WCC used to have a best of 3 series after the regular season between the #1 and #2 teams for the autobid, which I didn't quite understand.... There aren't that many teams in the conference, and they all play each other. What happened with that?
5/29/2011 1:13:31 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt

I want to get everyone thinking about this format before we actually have teams to plug into the regionals. So here's how the postseason predictions will work. (I'll edit this post when we know who's playing where and
then people can vote.)

Postseason predictions are a little different from weekly series picks. Because the teams play a double-elimination format, there are more distinct possibilities than the standard 0-3, 1-2, 2-1, and 3-0. We know that every regional will have a 0-2 team, and a 1-2 team. But the other two could be 2-2, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2, or 4-1. Too many to try to predict and not worth the distinction. So I've cut the choices down to the following:
  • 3-0: The team sweeps and advances.
  • 3+: The team finishes 4-1 or 3-1 (advances), or 3-2 and is eliminated.
  • 2-2: The team is out.
  • 1-2: The team is out.
  • 0-2: The team is out.
The 3+ team will be the rarest, and it doesn't mean the team will advance. This team could lose one of its first two games and have to play through the loser's bracket, taking at least one from the 2-0 winner's bracket team before falling (3-2) or beating them a second time (4-1). This team could also be the winner's bracket team (2-0) that loses its first game to the loser's bracket team then wins the final game (3-1). Note that if the winner's bracket (2-0) team loses both of the final games to the loser's bracket team, it becomes a 2-2 team. Correctly picking a 3+ team is tricky, so we give it a slight edge in points over the standard 0-2, 1-2, and 2-2 picks.

To make it simpler, think in these terms:
  • 3-0: The team is so good it wins three straight.
  • 3+: The team is inconsistent or faces a tough team in its bracket, and it is strong enough to lose one and force a second game for the regional crown.
  • 2-2: The team is good but not great.
  • 1-2: The team will enjoy a weekend vacation at the school's expense.
  • 0-2: The team is Alcorn State, Princeton, Sacred Heart, Austin Peay, Manhattan, or Bethune-Cupcake.
Here's how the scoring goes. Your pick is along the top; actual result is on the side:
   You pick:  0-2  1-2  2-2  3-0   3+
0-2: 4 3 2 0 0
1-2: 3 4 3 1 1
2-2: 1 2 4 2 2
3-0: 0 1 2 6 4
3+: 1 2 3 3 5
So if you pick a team to go 1-2 (2nd column), and they go 1-2 (second row), you get 4 points. If the team goes 2-2 (third row), you get 2 points.

Ask questions about scoring here. I'll have the teams and regional info in sometime tomorrow.


Numbers preceding teams' names are ISRs. Vote for teams in the order they appear.

10 Texas A&M (paired with Florida State #5)
21 Arizona
89 Seton Hall
117 Wright State

6 Arizona State (paired with Texas #7)
22 Arkansas
78 Charlotte
135 New Mexico

13 Rice (#8) (paired with TCU)
41 Baylor
23 California
219 Alcorn State

14 Oregon State (paired with Vanderbilt #6)
25 Creighton
32 Georgia
157 UALR

8 CS Fullerton (paired with North Carolina #3)
16 Stanford
43 Kansas State
137 Illinois

18 UCLA (paired with Virginia #1)
11 Fresno State
17 UC Irvine
49 San Francisco

A sample poll would look like this (please keep votes in alphabetical order):
  • Ariz 0-2
  • ASU 1-2
  • Cal 2-2
  • OSU 3+
  • Stan 3-0
  • UCLA 2-2

edited by Dodger Matt on 5/30/2011
5/29/2011 2:56:22 PM
Pac-10: Week 15 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Florida Beaver wrote:
Where's the gametracker link? I hate Oregon's crappy lion link thingy. It's like the difference between x-box and atari

5/29/2011 3:14:15 PM
Pac-10: Week 15 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
BB20, looks like your prediction championship hopes now rest on USC overcoming a 13-1 deficit to Wazzu in the 8th.
5/29/2011 3:22:37 PM
Pac-10: Week 15 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
ASU over UCLA 6-3 after 5...lookin' good. So the Beavers need to come back and beat the Ducks to secure a share of the title.
5/29/2011 3:51:57 PM
Pac-10: Week 15 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
ASU over the ULCER Bruins 7-3 in the bottom of the 7th. Of course, this all means naught if the Beavers don't stop playing like the 2009 Ducks and start playing like the 2011 Beavers.

Florida Beaver wrote:
Adam Duke???????? Has he pitched this year? Unfamiliar name. Where's Boyd????? Is this like drawing names out of a hat?

Adam Duke was a highly touted freshman from Utah who was injured preseason and has just come back in the last three weekends. He has done well in his second two one-inning appearances, so giving him some mound time is good IMO. We'll need him if we go deep in the postseason.
5/29/2011 4:01:03 PM
Pac-10: Week 15 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Shiite. 5-0 Ducks. They hit an 0-2 bloop single that scores a run. Carter Bell scorches a line drive to short for an IEDP. Five-game losing streak to end the regular season and watch that national seed and Pac-10 championship go up in smoke.
5/29/2011 5:01:43 PM
Pac-10: Week 15 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Day three

Oregon 6, Oregon State 0: Ducks sweep the Beavers and kill Oregon State’s hope for even a share of the Pac-10 championship. Beavers never did anything well all weekend, and the Ducks outplayed them in every aspect of all three games. Today Alex Keudell pitched 8.2 innings, limiting the Beavers to two hits. Ryon Healy led the Ducks, going 3 for 4 with 1 RBI and 1 run. The Ducks finished with 12 hits to OSU’s 3.

Oregon sweeps series 3-0.

ASU 10, UCLA 5: ASU salvages one of the three games, jumping on Adam Plutko for 6 earned runs over the first five innings. ASU finished with 18 hits, led by Matt Newman (4 for 5, 3 RBIs, 2 runs, 1 homer). Chris Giovinazzo led the ULCER Bruins going 2 for 3 with 1 RBI and 2 runs.

UCLA wins series 2-1 and is outright Pac-10 champions.

Arizona 8, Washington 2: Only two of Arizona’s 8 runs were earned, as Washington committed 3 errors. UW almost matched Arizona in the hits department, 13-11. Cole Frenzel led the Cats, going 3 for 5 with 2 RBIs and 1 run. Bobby Rinard was 3 for 4 with 2 runs scored. B.K. Santy again led the Huskies going 2 for 4 with 1 RBI.

Arizona sweeps series 3-0.

Washington State 13, USC 1: Wazzu bats explode on Trojan heads with 18 hits and 13 runs (12 earned). Matt Argyropoulos went 3 for 5 with 4 RBIs, and Taylor Ard was 3 for 3 with 2 RBIs, 5 runs scored, and one home run. Nate Blackham went 4 for 5 for the Cougs. For Washington State, a good end to a disappointing season; for the Trojans, a disappointing end to a much better than expected rebuilding year under a new head coach.

Wazzu wins series, 2-1.
5/29/2011 5:20:03 PM
Pac-10: Week 15 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt

16 SouthCoastStu
16 WildCard85
15 BlueSGJay
15 rec1347
14 BeaverBeliever20
14 YellowlabOSU
14 opihi man
14 MostUnknown
13 SouthernBeaver
13 Florida Beaver
13 cas77
12 Dodger Matt
10 BeaverBob
10 ASU74
10 RiverDuck
08 borgguy

Score analysis:
  • Arizona over UW was easily the top score: 4.88 average and 10/16 got the top score (of 6).
  • The other four series were very low scoring.
  • Only 4/16 picked UCLA 2-1 (2.44 avg).
  • Only 3/16 picked Wazzu 2-1 over USC (2.13).
  • Nobody picked an Oregon sweep (2.06).
  • Nobody picked a Stanford sweep (1.44).
  • Borgguy's score of 8 was second-lowest all season.
  • The lowest score of all (6) belongs to one of this week's top scorers: WildCard85.
  • This was the first time for both WildCard and SouthCoastStu to earn highest score.
  • The season championship in prediction rested on the Wazzu-USC game, and Wazzu won, sending BeaverBeliever20 to 2nd place. (Season scores coming up.)
5/29/2011 5:35:29 PM
Pac-10: Week 15 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Season Average Scores (6 and over)

wks ttl avg Name Team
6 102.7 17.11 rec1347 NA
7 117.7 16.81 BeaverBeliever20 OSU
7 117.5 16.79 SouthCoastStu OSU
7 116.5 16.64 MostUnknown UCLA
8 132.5 16.56 SouthernBeaver OSU
7 114.5 16.36 OregonStateChris OSU
8 129.8 16.23 opihi man OSU
9 143.0 15.89 BeaverBob OSU
10 158.0 15.80 Florida Beaver OSU
7 110.5 15.79 CaughtBySparky ASU
10 156.9 15.69 Dodger Matt OSU
10 152.5 15.25 cas77 ASU
10 150.8 15.08 ASU74 ASU
6 87.3 14.56 2Bulldogs NA
6 86.2 14.36 borgguy OSU
9 128.0 14.22 WildCard85 Stan
5 and under
 4     63.0    15.75    BballJones         OSU
5 76.7 15.33 YellowlabOSU OSU
5 68.0 13.60 CdinSV NA
5 62.8 12.57 RiverDuck Ore

Robert, we require the Prediction Champion to offer a speech. Plus you have to buy a round of virtual beer for everyone who participated. If you fail to meet these requirements, the runner-up will be crowned in your stead. Are you prepared to fulfill your obligations, sir?
5/29/2011 6:20:42 PM
HOSTS: NCAA throws curveball on one site

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Line Drive wrote:
Bummer for Fresno State..thought they'd done enough to host but the CSU Bakersfield series probably did them in..Seeing Oregon State falter down the stretch like they've done and still host after being swept by Fresno State leaves one wondering what the committee uses as criteria..whatever. Should be interesting where teams end up Monday..
Send Fresno to Corvallis. The Beavers would welcome playing them again.
5/29/2011 6:36:01 PM
WCC Championship: USF v. Gonzaga

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Congrats to USF. We may see you in Corvallis.
5/29/2011 6:37:46 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
NolesFanJosh wrote:
At this point though, OSU has opened the door for many possibilities to occur, some of which I thought absurd up until 2 wks ago.
Yeah, I agree. Dam Beavers.
5/29/2011 7:24:29 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Beavers are already in the CWS! Check this out!
5/29/2011 10:38:48 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Florida Beaver wrote:
DM, First and foremost, I have tremendous respect for your dedication to this prediction business. I am sure I speak for most of us that have been participating that you have made the season on here very enjoyable and gave most of us something to look forward to every week. Thanks again for doing this for the, what, 3rd year in a row. I like the format you have for the regionals. (Course, any format that I don't have to do, I like) I look forward to seeing who and where later this week. For now, I'm gonna go find a dark closet, shut and lock the door and have a nice cry for no Pac 10 championship and no National seed. Dam it.

BeaverBob wrote:
DM, I agree with FB. Thanks for the work you do with the PAC 10 predictions. It makes my otherwise boring and mundane life meaningful. FB, make sure your wife removes any clothes that you could use to do damage to yourself while you spend time in the closet. I’d hate to see any self inflicted damage happen to the foremost expert in Beaver demography and faith.

Thanks, all. It's my weekend passion, and I do it cuz there are enough folks interested in playing along.

FB, one minor adjustment to what Bob said. Make sure your wife removes her clothing from that closet, because we don't want to see what you look like when you come out of the closet otherwise.

Bob, 36 holes of golf a day in Reno for four days is boring and mundane, huh?
5/29/2011 11:01:48 PM
Pac-10: Week 15 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
rec1347 wrote:
Thanks for allowing me to play. I was just the recipient of a series of lucky guesses. More than likely, it I had discovered this site 10 weeks ago, I would be much further down the list. I would be more than happy to pass out the Heinekens or Hammerheards, but with me being a Fresno State fan, I'm afraid all you OSU fans would throw the empty bottles back. I do hope we meet again.....preferably deeeeeep in the tournament.

No empty bottles. I am with Bob: Give me a McMenamins Terminator Stout Nitro on tap. (It's the black one, second from right.) If I give you an empty, it's so you can pour it full again. Kinda like this smilie... beer
5/30/2011 9:57:09 AM
PG 64: Final NCAA postseason projections (5/30)

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
I don't understand the thinking behind having Arkansas a traveling #1. If you're barely better than the 2s and you have a subpar venue, I guess. But Arkansas puts thousands of fans in the seats, plus they have freakin' cheerleaders at their games dancing in between every inning on the dugout roof.

Oh well.
5/30/2011 10:40:54 AM
Pac-10: Week 15 predictions

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Riverduck wrote:
Dm- I picked an Oregon sweep..

Aah. You're right. I had one value off and it didn't flag your top score on that. Sorry. You were the only one.
5/30/2011 11:43:45 AM
Easiest Road Ever...

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
On the flip side, the committee did no favors to the overall #1 Virginia by pairing them with the UCLA regional (which qualifies as this year's ROD, IMO...UCLA, Fresno, and UCI could all win that.) I understand UCLA probably snuck in as the last 1 seed, but if they win their regional, you have to say facing Cole, Bauer, and Plutko in a best-of three series is not a cakewalk to Omaha.
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