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MiamiBaseball - all messages by user

5/15/2011 3:22:00 PM
Topic:
27 TAKES: Looking back at Saturday's action (5/14)

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Kendall, every projection seems to agree with Miami heading to Stetson for the post-season. Question: now that UCF has an RPI near 20, and UCF is right down the road from Stetson, does this cause Miami to be sent somewhere else, such as Gainesville? Or does FIU get the Gainesville nod while Miami gets on a plane to fill a need that can't be solved by geography somewhere else?

Or, heck, by losing to Lipscomb today, and with their best series win not even going to make the tournament, is Stetson losing the grip on their hosting status?
edited by MiamiBaseball on 5/15/2011
5/16/2011 8:25:20 AM
Topic:
National Seeds after this weekend's losses

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Riverduck wrote:
What about Oregon almost sweeping Stanford.


Oregon and Stanford aren't in any national seed discussions.
5/16/2011 2:59:01 PM
Topic:
TRANSCRIPT: Kendall Rogers' weekly chat (5/16)

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Using the ISR to promote the west is just as bad as using the RPI to promote the east. They both say the same thing every year no matter how good or bad anyone is, so I don't know why people still bother.
5/16/2011 7:14:10 PM
Topic:
TRANSCRIPT: Kendall Rogers' weekly chat (5/16)

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Dodger Matt wrote:
DM, once again, using ISR to prop up the weak Big West conference is almost as bad as the southeast schools hanging their hat on RPI to boost up their lousy schools performance.
Walt, I am in no way trying to prop up the Big West. Yes, the C-USA is far better than the Big West this year, but still nowhere near the Pac. My point is to show how silly these RPI-centric arguments are.


Where did you show how silly the RPI-centric arguments are? I missed that. People are discussing post-season bids. As much as you hate to admit it, post-season bids revolve around the RPI. And according to the RPI, the Pac-10 and CUSA are virtually the same. You can tell us how silly it is that Irvine is on the bubble with an ISR of 20, but the fact is that Irvine is on the bubble no matter what the ISR, Massey, or anyone in Orange County says.
5/17/2011 5:19:58 AM
Topic:
TRANSCRIPT: Kendall Rogers' weekly chat (5/16)

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Dodger Matt wrote:
MiamiBaseball: People are discussing post-season bids. As much as you hate to admit it, post-season bids revolve around the RPI.


And yet a couple of teams that are not in the RPI top eight are apparently "locks" for national seeds. How is that? It's unfortunate that the RPI is used at all, but I wouldn't call it revolutionary or central. Exorbital, perhaps.

As to your earlier post, "using the ISR to promote the west" is NOT "just as bad as using the RPI to promote the east" because the ISR does not "promote the west". The RPI does "promote the east"; but good teams from the east are recognized as such in the ISR, and that rarely comes through in the RPI.


That's just being blind. Because you are a fan of the west, and because teams from the west fare better in the ISR, the ISR must be spot on. Textbook homerism. I, on the other hand, know that the RPI isn't perfect and do not rely on it other than for the fact that the NCAA selection committe relies on it. Do you really think Stanford (ISR #16) deserves to be a host? Is Gonzaga (ISR #25) really a 2-seed? Does Loyola Marymount (ISR #43) really belong in the tournament?

You wonder why some teams outside the top 8 will be national seeds? Because of other factors directly related to the RPI. Record against RPI 1-25. Record against RPI top 100. A team's finish in a highly rated RPI conference. Teams #9 or #11 or#13 can be national seeds, but it is because of RPI-related factors. The ISR is irrelevant to the selection process, and I can prove that by looking at the whiny list of teams that are left out or "underseeded". Every. Single. Year.
edited by MiamiBaseball on 5/17/2011
5/18/2011 4:57:30 AM
Topic:
PG 64: Latest NCAA Projections (HAVE Q'S?) -- 5/18

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
OpihiMan wrote:
It's really stupid that Oregon State is penalized for sweeping a 4 game series...nothing like punishing teams for winning...the rest of OSU's schedule is decent too. If they win the PAC-10 and finish the year having won every single weekend (3+ games) series than it's a crying shame if they get shafted from a national seed.


Here's the thing though: everyone who plays a dog like Hartford (4-41 !!!) takes a hit in the RPI. It's not just a secret conspiracy against the west coast.

But you guys are focusing on Hartford and ignoring the other scrimmages on your schedule. Three games against Portland and two against Seattle aren't helping you either. You have played nine games against teams in the 200+ range. Look at Florida: none. Arizona State: none. Rice: none. Nine games is a lot, and it isn't beneficial to lose one of those, either.

If Oregon State is a national seed, they will prove it in the post-season. But you can't play a really bad non-conference schedule and expect to have the same rating as someone else with the same record who played a tougher schedule.
5/18/2011 7:32:11 AM
Topic:
PG 64: Latest NCAA Projections (HAVE Q'S?) -- 5/18

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
ucfalum08 wrote:
Assuming Stetson doesn't host where will UCF, Miami and Stetson end up?


That's the question of the day. There could be nine Florida teams in the post-season, so if Stetson doesn't host, people are being shipped out. One site has Miami going to Oregon State. Maybe UCF and Stetson are the 2-seeds in Tally and Gainesville.
5/18/2011 8:16:19 AM
Topic:
PG 64: Latest NCAA Projections (HAVE Q'S?) -- 5/18

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Dodger Matt wrote:
Kendall wrote:
BeaverBeliever20 wrote:
Just wondering Kendall, why did you drop Oregon State from a #4 national seed to a #8 national seed after they won yet another Pac-10 series?


Only one reason at all: Beavers now have an RPI of 20. That's stretching it from a national seed standpoint, so they pretty much had to be the last national seed on the list.

Even if the Beavers kill USC and Oregon, the way the RPI works, we'll probably drop even lower than 20. What happens with national seeding then? How many people on the selection committee realize that the Rat's Patootie Index is so stupid and are willing to disregard it?


You have to start by understanding that teams will drop after some wins in ANY rating system. If Virginia plays and defeats Portland, Virginia's ISR will be reduced. If anyone in the top 100 plays and defeats Hartford, that team's ISR will fall. I can't understand why you people still think that concept is unique to the RPI.
5/18/2011 9:04:17 AM
Topic:
PG 64: Latest NCAA Projections (HAVE Q'S?) -- 5/18

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Puppy Dogs and Ice Cream wrote:
I take it that this is your projected and not "if the season ended today" since you show Arizona State as hosting. I haven't seen anything yet, but did they make a ruling on their appeal from a couple days ago?

If they don't get the ban lifted, who takes that host spot?


It's not that the ban will be lifted, it's that the ruling on the appeal could take months. So they might still get the ban, but it wouldn't be until 2012 unless the committee miraculously makes a ruling very soon.
5/18/2011 1:36:48 PM
Topic:
PG 64: Latest NCAA Projections (HAVE Q'S?) -- 5/18

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Dodger Matt wrote:
MiamiBaseball wrote:
You have to start by understanding that teams will drop after some wins in ANY rating system. If Virginia plays and defeats Portland, Virginia's ISR will be reduced. If anyone in the top 100 plays and defeats Hartford, that team's ISR will fall. I can't understand why you people still think that concept is unique to the RPI.

Bottom Story of the Day: Condescension from a Miami fan.


You can make it about me if you want, but please tell me that you learned something about rating systems in the process.
5/18/2011 6:34:44 PM
Topic:
PG 64: Latest NCAA Projections (HAVE Q'S?) -- 5/18

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Dodger Matt wrote:
Not really. I've been around long enough to know how they both work, so thanks for the primer, but it was nothing new. The ISR is still more accurate because it doesn't stop at opponents' opponents' winning percentages. Every once in a while, the disparities between the two systems become very pronounced with a few teams. This year it happens to be my team, and I rant.


I know precisely how the ISR is calculated, and I would like to hear your explanation of the bolded part.
5/19/2011 5:39:29 AM
Topic:
PG 64: Latest NCAA Projections (HAVE Q'S?) -- 5/18

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Dodger Matt wrote:
No thanks, Teach-- I mean Coach. Done with homework.
Didn't think there could be that many Miami fans like you.




Yeah, that's what I figured. Not understanding this stuff is nothing to be embarrassed about. But making this personal speaks volumes about you.
5/21/2011 6:13:34 PM
Topic:
Kendall - FL Regionals?

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Stetson gets a once in a lifetime chance to host and loses a home series to Belmont. Shaking my head.
5/25/2011 7:57:38 AM
Topic:
PG 64: Latest NCAA Projections (HAVE Q'S?) -- 5/24

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Dodger Matt wrote:
Stats below, sorted by record versus top 100 RPI, are grabbed from Nolan’s Nitty Gritty Report, and since half the work was already done, I stuck with his Rat’s Patooties. Using Kendall’s “versus top 25, versus top 50, versus top 100” breakdown, the Beavers currently have the seventh-best record against top 100 RPI teams. And the BEST versus top 25 and top 50.

RPI Team Div I OOC SOS 1 – 25..... 1 – 50..... 1 – 100....
4 Vanderbilt 44-9 22-1 32 11-7 0.611 19-8 0.704 23-8 0.742
2 Virginia 45-9 23-1 26 9-6 0.600 15-8 0.652 21-8 0.724
1 North Carolina 44-12 24-2 3 11-5 0.688 15-8 0.652 31-12 0.721
9 Arizona State 38-14 22-6 27 3-4 0.429 14-7 0.667 25-10 0.714
11 Texas 40-13 21-5 45 4-2 0.667 16-7 0.696 27-11 0.711
6 South Carolina 44-12 22-4 31 12-6 0.667 18-9 0.667 24-10 0.706
21 Oregon State 38-14 21-7 75 6-0 1.000 13-5 0.722 23-11 0.676
3 Florida 41-15 19-7 2 15-12 0.556 22-13 0.629 29-14 0.674
14 CS Fullerton 37-14 20-10 44 3-7 0.300 6-8 0.429 18-9 0.667
15 Southern Miss 38-15 22-7 48 4-4 0.500 11-8 0.579 26-14 0.650
19 Stetson 40-16 17-9 59 4-3 0.571 8-6 0.571 16-9 0.640
5 Florida State 39-15 20-4 4 12-11 0.522 17-12 0.586 24-14 0.632
13 Arkansas 36-18 21-3 21 10-8 0.556 15-13 0.536 22-13 0.629
12 Rice 38-18 22-10 15 5-3 0.625 12-9 0.571 28-17 0.622
10 Texas A&M 38-18 19-10 10 4-6 0.400 16-10 0.615 28-17 0.622
7 Georgia Tech 39-17 17-9 7 9-6 0.600 12-7 0.632 24-15 0.615
8 Clemson 39-17 22-4 8 7-10 0.412 12-12 0.500 20-14 0.588
17 Oklahoma 38-15 24-4 55 3-6 0.333 12-12 0.500 18-14 0.563
16 Miami 33-20 14-10 14 5-11 0.313 9-13 0.409 17-15 0.531
18 UCF 36-20 24-8 28 6-7 0.462 10-11 0.476 19-17 0.528
20 LSU 36-20 23-3 30 6-12 0.333 12-17 0.414 18-18 0.500

As for getting some help this weekend, I don’t see how we get any of that, the way the Rat’s Patootie is skewed. So I’m resigned to just being a #1 seed and (hopefully) traveling to a super.

Oregon State: #9 ISR, #7 Massey, #1 record versus top 25 and top 50 RPI, and soon-to-be Pac-10 champs, but still not worthy of a national seed. So, as stupid as it sounds, that sounds about right to me.

To get the "coded" table to fit correctly, this post was repeatedly...

edited by Dodger Matt on 5/24/2011


This is typcial of someone who can only view statistics in a way that is most favorable to his team. Example: Florida has played more games against teams in the top 25 than Oregon State has played against the top 100, but he somehow has Oregon State ahead of Florida.

One would think that it would be a hint when the west-coast-heavy ISR doesn't even have Oregon State in the top 8 (you know, the number of national seeds). If you want to be a national seed, don't schedule Hartford, and don't lose three of your last four conference games to bad teams.
5/25/2011 7:14:03 PM
Topic:
PG 64: Latest NCAA Projections (HAVE Q'S?) -- 5/24

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Dodger Matt wrote:
LHS-Stalker wrote:
This is typcial of someone who can only view statistics in a way that is most favorable to his team. Example: Florida has played more games against teams in the top 25 than Oregon State has played against the top 100, but he somehow has Oregon State ahead of Florida.

"He somehow has Oregon State ahead of Florida"? Look in the first sentence of my post, genius. That's how the data is sorted.

And your arrogance must have temporarily tweaked your arithmetic skills. Florida is 15-12 vs RPI top 25; that's 27 games. OSU is 23-11 vs RPI top 100; that's 34 games. Not that this point is very relevant, but you brought it up.

BTW, I'm not pimping the Rat's Patootie; I'm just trying to use this inferior tool the way many patootie-kissers do. If I sort by record against RPI 25, 50, or 100. OSU ends up in the top eight. Should I try to please you and show the data some other way? Your narcissism is typical of someone who only views other people's opinions as a vehicle to prove your alleged superiority.


You are correct. I inadvertently looked under the 1-50 column. My mistake.

No, I don't want you to try to please me. I want you to become a smarter college baseball fan. It becomes tiresome when the same people make the same mistakes every year when trying to analyze this stuff. We get it, you hate the RPI. No one thinks it's perfect, and no one is a "patootie-kisser". But it is what the committe uses, so we use it.

And you can think that you are looking at the records the way the committee is, but I promise you that 15-12 and 12-6 against the top 25 carries more weight than 6-0 does. Just going by winning percentage is a mistake. Playing literally half your schedule against the top 25 is 10x more impressive than fitting in two series. And I'm guessing that you are praying that Fresno State and Arizona don't sneak into the top 25 this week.
5/25/2011 7:21:19 PM
Topic:
PG 64: Latest NCAA Projections (HAVE Q'S?) -- 5/24

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Oh, and the stalker thing was pretty mature. I rip your posts up one side and down the other, but I haven't gone that route. If I wanted to be like you, I would just remind you that you are the guy who didn't know how signals were sent in from the bench to the catcher. Oh, to have an archive on that site.
5/31/2011 7:29:07 PM
Topic:
Easiest regionals, according to the oddsmakers

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
With all the talk about who has the easiest regional, let's take a look at how the lines are set.

The following are the odds to win the regional.

Easiest
Virginia -1200
Vanderbilt -1050
North Carolina -900
Florida State -750

Toughest
Rice -150
TCU -160
UCLA -180
Fullerton -195
6/1/2011 5:50:37 AM
Topic:
Easiest regionals, according to the oddsmakers

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
fsugeo wrote:
That doesn't necessarily make Rice's regional the toughest. It may mean Rice just isn't as good as the other #1 seeds.


This is just semantics, but I think both things you wrote mean the same thing. Virginia's regional is easiest because they are that much better than the other teams in their region. If their 2-seed was Arkansas, their region would no longer be the easiest one because a team in their region could provide more of a challenge.
6/1/2011 5:52:07 AM
Topic:
Easiest regionals, according to the oddsmakers

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
eagleboy415 wrote:
Plus, I think that Rice has the one of if not the easiest path to Omaha. Weak regional paired with an even weaker regional.


If you think Rice has the easiest path, drop some down, because this would be easy money. Way too much juice to play Virginia, but at -150, Rice could give you a big payout with low risk.
6/1/2011 5:57:26 AM
Topic:
UCLA Regional

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Dodger Matt wrote:
Hmm. SMEagle fans getting testy over not getting a host and picking on UCLA, whom they believe stole theirs. Precious!


Do you disagree? Southern Miss may not be the victim, but UCLA stole someone's regional.
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