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borgguy - all messages by user

6/3/2011 9:00:59 AM
Topic:
PREVIEW: Looking at the Corvallis Regional

borgguy
borgguy
against UALR, im not even sure we should start osich, maybe start james nygren instead, and if he struggles early, maybe bring in osich, but if all goes according to plan, james can take care of business against UALR then you have your two best guys ready for games 2 and 3. IMO
6/3/2011 9:26:15 AM
Topic:
Pac-10: POSTSEASON PREDICTIONS

borgguy
borgguy
Riverduck wrote:
I hate to say it, but I fear an upset at goss this week. Don't hate me if it happens.


oh river, we WILL hate you if that happens because OBVIOUSLY you have total control over what the beavers do ;P
6/3/2011 9:46:16 AM
Topic:
Pac-10: POSTSEASON PREDICTIONS

borgguy
borgguy
Dodger Matt wrote:
ISR Probabilities

Boyd has his probabilities out. Before you Beaver fans freak out, you have to understand that these
are based on each team's ISR for every level of the competition until you get to that 2.0% chance
for OSU to win the NC. The percentages will all change after the first round, when we will get at
least one or two upsets. The important thing is to look at what our projected chances are for this
round. Oregon State has a 72% chance of advancing. The SEC darling that the Rivals board has
already crowned the regional winner has an 11% chance, less than Creighton (who looks more
impressive to me on paper anyway).

All Pac-10 teams
ASU:    80.2%  
OSU: 71.8%
UCLA: 34.0%
Ariz: 28.6%
Stan: 23.8%
Cal: 17.4%


just doing the most basic math of 1/64 giving each and every team an equal chance of winning the NC the beavs are at 1.562% so ill take the 2% boyd is giving us. if we make it to the supers again basic math and equal chance tells us 1/16 is 6.25% (obviously boyd will have a different number as not all teams are created equal, and if vandy gets upset and we host that # will rise drastically) so i am not too concerned about that number at all
6/3/2011 1:26:48 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: POSTSEASON PREDICTIONS

borgguy
borgguy
SouthernBeaver wrote:
OSU also announced it is saving Gaviglio and Osich, and starting Nygren on Friday. They must have seen something they liked in the first matchup, feeling confident to give their first two starters another day of rest.


excellent, as i posted in the post about the corvallis regional this is exactly what i would have done, save your two best guys for the better opponents
6/4/2011 6:25:44 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: POSTSEASON PREDICTIONS

borgguy
borgguy
got my tickets to the osu creighton game, hope we do good, GO BEAVS!!
6/6/2011 9:12:55 AM
Topic:
super regional host

borgguy
borgguy
im hoping someone can help put a rumor to bed for me (hopefully kendall can shed some light on the matter)

there is a rumor floating around corvallis that with the CMAs in nashville this weekend that the OSU/vandy super regional might be moved to corvallis. is there any basis in truth for that? or is that something that the NCAA would have already taken into account when it gave vandy the natl seed and therefore homefield throughout the supers?

while admittedly it would be nice to have the super at home, imo it isnt fair to vanderbilt as they recieved the national seed and SHOULD be able to play at thier park. any clue?

EDIT

just looked on ncaa.com they state that the site will be announced today.
edited by borgguy on 6/6/2011
6/6/2011 1:59:26 PM
Topic:
super regional host

borgguy
borgguy
was just checking around and according to aaron fitt over at BA he got a call from vandys dir of communications who said "there is not snowballs chance on the equator of the SR being moved" still no word one way or the other from the NCAA sounds like its not going to be untill 9pm eastern (per beaver baseball twitter) till we hear anything.
personally i think that if they DO move it, the fairest opton would be to move it to another city in tennesse.

(that said i would not be all THAT upset if they did move it to corvallis, but i would certainly understand vandy being livid)
6/6/2011 2:54:43 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: POSTSEASON PREDICTIONS

borgguy
borgguy
Dodger Matt wrote:
Pac-10 is again 6-0 in game 3s, 2-1 in game 4s. Three advance, two are still in play for an upset, one is eliminated:
  • Arizona LWWW: Must beat Texas A&M again to advance to play at Florida State.
  • Arizona State WWW: Advances to play the Kent state/Texas victor (site TBD).
  • California LWWW: Must beat Baylor one more time to advance (and play the Dallas Baptist/Oral Roberts winner, site TBD)
  • Oregon State WWW: Advances to play at Vanderbilt.
  • Stanford WWW : Advances to play at North Carolina.
  • UCLA LWWL: Eliminated.
BTW, I just realized I know who the postseason prediction winner is already, because these scores are already set--even though two of the outcomes are not. But I'll post scores tomorrow....
edited by Dodger Matt on 6/6/2011


im gonna go with "NOT ME"

looking at the bracket should ASU OSU and Stan all advance to the CWS they would all be on the same side of the bracket (osu and Stan would play each other in the first round ASU would get winner of Florida MSU) all but assuring 1 pac10 team would make the title game, whereas cal and arizona (assuming they can even get to the SR) would play for the right to go to the title game on the other side (dream scenario: OSU/ASU or Stan on one side, Cal/ariz on the other, pac 10 only need apply) <-------- prolly not gonna happen tho
6/6/2011 3:06:23 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: POSTSEASON PREDICTIONS

borgguy
borgguy
quick question DM. are we gonna do predictions for the SR if both cal and/or ariz advance? that WOULD give us 5 series to predict should they both win today
6/6/2011 4:32:55 PM
Topic:
super regional host

borgguy
borgguy
although something else to take into account, OSU has its graduation on saturday so there might not be any hotel rooms here either, this could prove interesting....
6/7/2011 9:12:44 AM
Topic:
Super Regional sites, times released

borgguy
borgguy
now im kinda confused was looking on espn3.com and they SAY that they will be showing all the super regionals on friday site 1 is MSU/UF site 2 is stan/UNC then im not sure about sites 3 and 4 they say 730 and 1030 respectively but that doesnt mesh with what is being said here. any clue. i wanna watch the beaver vandy game but dont have espnu (wont be a problem sat/sun as do have regular espn and espn2)
6/7/2011 3:43:18 PM
Topic:
Hardest and Easiest Supers

borgguy
borgguy
shoelessT wrote:
Top 3 easiest: 1. Florida 2. FSU 3. Virginia

Top 3 hardest: 1. Oregon St winning at Vandy. 2. UConn winning at S.Carolina. 3. Stanford winning at UNC

*obviously if the easiest Supers for one team are the hardest for another so I just didn't duplicate.



i actually kind of like OSU's chances against Vandy, its not going to be easy by any stretch of the imagination, but i think with sammy pitching on friday we stand a good chance of winning game 1 and if schultz (who *I* would start instead of osich) gives us 5 good innings like he did against georgia, i like our chances on saturday too. all the games are going to be hard fought, but as long as the beavers dont forget how to play baseball (like they did for game 3 against UW and all of USC and UO) we stand a pretty good chance
6/7/2011 8:41:23 PM
Topic:
Hardest and Easiest Supers

borgguy
borgguy
shoelessT wrote:
borgguy wrote:
shoelessT wrote:
Top 3 easiest: 1. Florida 2. FSU 3. Virginia

Top 3 hardest: 1. Oregon St winning at Vandy. 2. UConn winning at S.Carolina. 3. Stanford winning at UNC

*obviously if the easiest Supers for one team are the hardest for another so I just didn't duplicate.



i actually kind of like OSU's chances against Vandy, its not going to be easy by any stretch of the imagination, but i think with sammy pitching on friday we stand a good chance of winning game 1 and if schultz (who *I* would start instead of osich) gives us 5 good innings like he did against georgia, i like our chances on saturday too. all the games are going to be hard fought, but as long as the beavers dont forget how to play baseball (like they did for game 3 against UW and all of USC and UO) we stand a pretty good chance



Yes but Vandy starts Sonny Gray in game 1 and Grayson Garvin in game 2. Hard to find 2 better pitchers in a rotation than that. Plus, with Esposito and Westlake, not to mention Gomez, Reynolds, etc. they have a great lineup as well. I do like Sam throwing on friday against many teams but Sonny and Vandy is a tough draw. Good luck to the Beavers! Also I must add that I think Oregon State has the best uniforms in college baseball! They are just plain awesome!



that is why i think this is going to be an excellent series, no matter who wins, they certainly deserve their spot at the CWS.. good luck to the 'dores as well
6/8/2011 11:33:23 AM
Topic:
Pac-10: SUPER REGIONAL PREDICTIONS

borgguy
borgguy
to give DM a break I will take a crack at providing some series break downs, first up is ASU @ Texas

ASU 42-16 overall @ Texas 47-16 overall

Two very good, very talented tradition rich teams (11 national titles between them 6 for UT and 5 for ASU) go at it for a berth in the CWS

ASU was the pick to win the pac10 but came just short of that goal going 17-10 in conference play including series losses to OSU USC and UCLA still a very talented team that can not be taken lightly.

The Devils will probable start RHP Kramer Champlin who is 9-3 in 16 starts he has 110.2 innings pitched with an ERA of 2.93 and 91 Ks. teams are batting .246 against him and he has given up 6 home runs <-------fixed with current year player.

The Longhorns went 19-8 in the Big12 and tied with aTm for 1st place in conference with their only series loss coming at Oklahoma State.

Texas will probably start RHP Taylor Jungmann in game 1 who is 13-1 in 17 appearances (16 starts) has an ERA of 1.39 with 5 complete games. He has 129.1 innings pitched with 120 Ks teams are batting only .167 against him and he has given up only 4 home runs.

While this series is winnable for ASU, Texas has only lost 8 home games all season and ASU is only 12-5 on the road this season. In years past ASU has relied on the long ball to get the job done with the new bats that has not been easy and with Texas’ excellent rotation (their usual weekend starters have a combined ERA of 2.02 with 13 HR’s given up between them) that will be difficult as well.

hope this helps, i will get to the other ones as time at work allows (doing this between phone calls)
edited by borgguy on 6/8/2011
6/8/2011 12:28:33 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: SUPER REGIONAL PREDICTIONS

borgguy
borgguy
Lute31 wrote:
borgguy wrote:
to give DM a break I will take a crack at providing some series break downs, first up is ASU @ Texas

ASU 42-16 overall @ Texas 47-16 overall

Two very good, very talented tradition rich teams (11 national titles between them 6 for UT and 5 for ASU) go at it for a berth in the CWS

ASU was the pick to win the pac10 but came just short of that goal going 17-10 in conference play including series losses to OSU USC and UCLA still a very talented team that can not be taken lightly.

The Devils will most likely start RHP Seth Blair in game 1 who is 12-1 in 18 appearances (all starts) with an ERA of 3.64 he has 106.1 IP with 108 Ks teams are batting .274 against him has given up 11 home runs all season.

The Longhorns went 19-8 in the Big12 and tied with aTm for 1st place in conference with their only series loss coming at Oklahoma State.

Texas will probably start RHP Taylor Jungmann in game 1 who is 13-1 in 17 appearances (16 starts) has an ERA of 1.39 with 5 complete games. He has 129.1 innings pitched with 120 Ks teams are batting only .167 against him and he has given up only 4 home runs.

While this series is winnable for ASU, Texas has only lost 8 home games all season and ASU is only 12-5 on the road this season. In years past ASU has relied on the long ball to get the job done with the new bats that has not been easy and with Texas’ excellent rotation (their usual weekend starters have a combined ERA of 2.02 with 13 HR’s given up between them) that will be difficult as well.

hope this helps, i will get to the other ones as time at work allows (doing this between phone calls)


Wow, Seth Blair is coming back to pitch this weekend??!! I think you have the wrong years stats in from of you. Maybe Mike Leake is available too.


BLAST!!!!!!!!

thanks for letting me know, i guess ill have to go back and fix that, and get THIS years stats
6/8/2011 12:38:42 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: SUPER REGIONAL PREDICTIONS

borgguy
borgguy
ok double checked and im PRETTY sure i have 2011 info for this one

Dallas Baptist (42-18) vs Cal 35-21 (in santa clara)

The Feel Good Super Regional. Cal who was facing extinction following this season till a big donor push saved them from the brink, versus independent Dallas Baptist who has never been to the CWS before (in fact joined D1 in 2005).

DBU is no stranger to success, they won the NCCAA (national CHRISTIAN college athletic association) national title in 2003 and 2004, when they made a regional in 2008 they became the first independent other than Miami to make a regional since 1992.

DBU will probably start RHP Jared Stafford who is 8-4 in 15 starts with an ERA 3.03 he has 101 Innings Pitched with 60 ks teams are batting .239 against him and he has given up 5 home runs.

They have played some big name opponents this year and played them well with single game victories over Oklahoma State, TCU, Rice, Oklahoma, aTm. They are 4-2 this year on neutral sites.

California is certainly a surprise to make it to the Super regional as they finished 13-13 in conference play with some bad losses and some quality wins, its kind of hard to figure this team out, but with their amazing come from behind win against Baylor on Monday, the bears are high on confidence and playing close to home will be a benefit as well. Cal is 8-3 on neutral sites, but this is about as friendly a neutral site could be for them just up the road in santa clara

Cal will probably start RHP Eric Johnson who is 6-4 with 16 starts with an ERA of 2.91. In 96 innings pitched he has 96 Ks teams are batting .194 against him and he has allowed 3 home runs.

Should be a good series and a happy storyline regardless of who wins, but the slight edge would have to be to Cal playing close to home and to show that the decision to try and axe them was a bad one.
6/8/2011 2:18:43 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: SUPER REGIONAL PREDICTIONS

borgguy
borgguy
OSU (41-17) vs Vanderbilt (50-10)

An ALMOST rematch, last time Oregon State went to a super regional in 2007 they played the winner of the Nashville regional which was hosted by top overall seed Vandy, but thanks to an upset by Michigan, OSU got to come home and the rest as they say, is history.

THIS time around, Vanderbilt took care of business at home, winning all three games in convincing fashion, as opposed to Oregon State, who struggled early against UALR took care of Creighton, then battled Georgia to the very end.


Most of us on this board are familiar with OSU’s season and its ups and downs (since most of us are beaver fans, and the rest have to deal with said beaver fans )

Beavers will almost certainly start Gaviglio who is 12-2 in 16 starts with an ERA of 1.87. He has pitched 115.1 innings struck out 113 batters and teams are hitting .200 against him, he has allowed 3 home runs.

Vanderbilt will probably start RHP Sonny Gray who is 11-3 in 16 starts with an ERA of 2.01 he has 107.2 innings pitched and 115 Ks teams are batting only .192 against him and he has given up 4 home runs.

Game 1 will be a pitchers duel if both aces are on their game, which I have no reason to think that they wont, timely hitting will be key in this game, and that has been a strength for the beavers over the majority of the season (barring games against USC and UO). Vandy is also a very good hitting team their usual starting 9 are all batting .300 or better.

Vandy is 29-4 at home, so they are not accustomed to losing in their own park whereas the Beavers are only 12-9 on the road, but Coach Casey has a knack for getting his teams up for the challenge. I see all 3 games as toss ups I think these teams are very evenly matched and it should go 3 games with each game probably being decided by 2 or less runs
6/8/2011 3:24:46 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: SUPER REGIONAL PREDICTIONS

borgguy
borgguy
and for our last matchup....

Stanford (35-20) @ North Carolina (48-14)


Both teams had high expectations entering the season, expecting to reach this point in the post season. Stanford’s road has been somewhat rocky. Despite mostly good pitching, they frequently found themselves on the wrong end of games as the bats just weren’t there. North Carolina has been playing well all season, and looks to make its 5th trip to Omaha in the last 6 years (having made it in 06 and 07 only to lose to OSU in the title game, being eliminated by eventual champ Fresno state in 08 and being eliminated by Arizona State in 09 in Pat Murphy’s 1000th win).

Stanford battled its way through the regular season finishing 14-12 in conference then surprised in the Fullerton regional to make it to the Supers

UNC took care of business during the regular season going 20-10 in the ACC and breezed through their regional beating Maine 4-0 then James Madison twice by a combined score of 23-3 (14-0 and 9-3)

Stanford will likely start RHP Mark Appel a sophomore who is 6-6 in 16 starts with an ERA of 3.02 in 104.1 innings he has struck out 83 walked 26, teams are batting .276 against him and he has only allowed one home run.

He will probably be opposed by Senior RHP Patrick Johnson who is 12-1 in 16 appearances (15 starts) he has an ERA of 2.36 and in 99.1 innings has 113 Ks to 29 walks teams are batting .210 against him and he has allowed 3 home runs.

North Carolina is 34-3 at home and Stanford is 15-13 on the road

Unfortunately for Stanford, UNC is playing extremely good baseball right now, and with the Cardinal’s issues with consistency, this could turn into a long weekend for them, but one never knows, however would not be surprised to see Mike Fox make the almost annual vacation to Omaha again.

i know that these arent on par with the usual level that DM provides, however i hope this helps everyone.
6/8/2011 3:30:11 PM
Topic:
Pac-10: SUPER REGIONAL PREDICTIONS

borgguy
borgguy
now that ive posted all those here are my picks
ASU 2-1 ( i stated in my regional prediction that i liked them against anyone in austin home or away, im going to stick with that )
Cal 2-0 (sorry DBU cal is playing too good and is at "home." welcome to the big time DBU, im sure we will see you again)

OSU 2-0 (boundless optimism, even though i said each game was a toss-up i think the toss will come up beavs both times!)

Stan 0-2 (as i posted, stanfords inconsistency will be thier downfall and UNC is playing too well) (EDIT: realized i posted this backwards as UNC, when supposed to be stan first)
edited by borgguy on 6/8/2011

d'oh! i forgot tie breaker :15
edited by borgguy on 6/8/2011
6/8/2011 4:47:29 PM
Topic:
****SUPER REGIONALS PREDICTIONS****

borgguy
borgguy
south carolina 2-1
florida 2-0
FSU2-1
ASU 2-1
CAL 2-0
UNC 2-0
Virginia 2-0
OSU 2-0 (with Florida Beaver on this one)
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