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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » Pac-12 Super Regional Predictions

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6/5/2012 9:35:31 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2424
Okay here goes. Let's start with the four super regional matchups, then I'll provide the rules.

Super regional pairings

The upper team is the favored (host) team. The numbers byond the win-loss-percentages are rankings from Boyd and Massey plus Boyd's ISR-based probabilities for winning the super regionals.
Conf. .Team . . . . W. . L. . .Pct. . Boyd. .Msey. .RPI . . Prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------
PAC . .UCLA . . . . 45 . 14 . 0.763 . . 1 . . .1 . . .1 . . 83.7
MWC . .TCU. . . . . 40 . 20 . 0.667 . .22 . . 22 . . 32 . . 16.3

PAC . .Oregon . . . 45 . 17 . 0.726 . . 3 . . .2 . . .5 . . 86.8
MAC . .Kent St. . . 44 . 17 . 0.721 . .54 . . 53 . . 59 . . 13.2

PAC . .Arizona. . . 41 . 17 . 0.707 . . 6 . . .4 . . .9 . . 93.9
BgE . .St. John . . 40 . 21 . 0.656 . .64 . . 68 . . 39 . . .6.1

ACC . .Florida St . 46 . 15 . 0.754 . . 7 . . 13 . . .3 . . 56.0
PAC . .Stanford . . 41 . 16 . 0.719 . . 2 . . .3 . . 12 . . 44.0
Scoring

There are four possibilities for each super regional:
  • 0-2: The team loses the first two games and is done.
  • 1-2: The team wins one of the first two then loses the third game and is done.
  • 2-1: The team wins one of the first two games then wins the third and goes to Omaha.
  • 2-0: The team wins the first two games and goes to Omaha.
I've upped the scores a bit, especially on the winning end, to provide a possible range similar to our regular season prediction scores. Here's how the scoring goes. Your pick is along the top; actual result is on the side:
Your pick: . 0-2. 1-2. 2-1. 2-0
0-2. . . . . .6 . .4 . .2 . .0
1-2. . . . . .4 . .6 . .3 . .1
2-1. . . . . .1 . .3 . .6 . .5
2-0. . . . . .0 . .1 . .4 . .7
Note that a team that goes 2-0 will give you the most points if you pick them to go 2-0 and almost as much if you pick them to go 2-1. (Connor, this note is for you.) This kind of encourages optimism, but it also provides some separation.

Tiebreaker

By luck we didn't need a tiebreaker last week, but we probably will this week. And it's this: Guess the average runs scored per game by Stony Brook in the Baton Rouge super regional. Fractional numbers are okay. (The number will likely be a third, half, two-thirds.) And try to pick a number DIFFERENT from everyone else's.

For some perspective: The Seawolves averaged 10.0 runs per game in the Coral Gables regional against Miami, Missouri State, and UCF. They have the highest winning percentage in the field (50-12, .806) and are ISR 67. Boyd gives them a 6.9% to beat LSU, which is better than St. John's odds against Arizona.

Sample ballot

Here's what a sample ballot would look like:
  • Ariz 2-0
  • Ore 0-2
  • Stan 1-2
  • UCLA 2-1
  • Stony Brook: 7.33
0 permalink
6/7/2012 1:09:23 AM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1219
Dodger Matt wrote:
Are you just copying FB's picks? And his misspellings?



I think RD just has duklexia.

As for myself, I think Southern Cal and its liberal agenda and I think ACLU. Hmmmmm.
+2 permalink
6/10/2012 12:11:34 AM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1219
Wow. I really did think the quackers would win in 2. Are they the home team? RD, help me out here buddy. Isn't your big advantage being the home team? Wow. Good thing you're not playing at another park then, huh. You should probably have your real team show up tomorrow. If not, well at least the ride home won't take long.
+1 permalink
6/10/2012 12:28:11 AM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1463
RD, I hope you were able to make it to the game tonight even though your Ducks lost. What a great atmosphere and stadium. My bet is that the Ducks win the next two and move to the World Series. I'll have to watch the next game or two from TV, but I'm glad I made it to the game tonight.

The Beavers Marketing and Athletic Department can really learn a thing or two from how the Ducks do business.
+1 permalink
6/12/2012 5:56:02 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2424
Here are your postsuper scores and stats:

Score. . .Player . . . . . .Diff in SB run avg
21.0 . . .ASU74. . . . . . .-0.84
19.0 . . .Florida Beaver . . 1.77
19.0 . . .MostUnknown. . . .-1.94
19.0 . . .RiverDuck. . . . . 2.28
19.0 . . .SouthCoastStu. . . 2.06
16.0 . . .Dodger Matt. . . . 1.00
14.0 . . .WildCard85 . . . . 2.96
12.0 . . .BeaverBob. . . . . 2.56
ASU74 wins in total points, and he also had the closest pick to Stony Brook's average runs scored over their three-game series with LSU (which was 4.66). He was the only player to guess within a run of the actual average. Props to ASU74.

But check out "tied for second": Four people with scores of 19. If Fred hadn't won, the tiebreaker here would have been critical. Official second place goes to Florida Beaver. Some more notes:
  • Seven of eight correctly picked UCLA 2-0.
  • Six of eight correctly picked Arizona 2-0.
  • ASU74 was the only one to get three of the four supers right, and the only one to correctly pick Stanford 0-2.
  • Nobody picked Oregon 1-2. In fact, everyone picked Oregon 2-0, so that was worth only 1 pt.
+1 permalink
6/12/2012 10:29:34 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1463
I might have to give it a try. I worked for the Southland Corp (7-Eleven Stores) for almost 20 years. We closed a store down and I brought home a bunch of beer and much of it still sits in my garage from nearly 15 years ago.


ASU74 wrote:
BB
Only one way to find out. Chill it down & pop the cap. Let me know.
Toast
+1 permalink
6/6/2012 11:28:58 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Uh.. sorry.. just got back from the Peacock..
Ariz 2-0
Ore 2-0]
Stan 1-2
ACLU 2-0
stoney.. 6.666 or something like that...
edited by Riverduck on 6/6/2012
+1 permalink
6/6/2012 11:46:56 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2424
Riverduck wrote:
Uh.. sorry.. just got back from the Peacock..
Ariz 2-0
Ore 2-0]
Stan 1-2
ACLU 2-0
stoney.. 6.666 or something like that...
edited by Riverduck on 6/6/2012

Please pick a slightly different tiebreaker. That one has to be unique, and the demonic number is taken by an ACLU fan.
+1 permalink
6/6/2012 11:50:10 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2424
Are you just copying FB's picks? And his misspellings?
+1 permalink
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