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5/30/2012 7:58:32 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
I just read someplace online that LSU is going to withhold their ace Gausman for game two when they expect to face either OSU or Belmont and pitch somebody else, presumably their number 2 starter, against 4th seed UL-Monroe.

So YOU are the head coach of a #1 seed in a regional. Do you go this route? Does it depend on how poor the 4th seed is and how good the 2nd seed is? What if the 4th seed's ace is the one really good player on the club and he beats you? Then you have to play an extra game or two from the loser's bracket and your ace might not be ready to pitch on short rest in what could be the critical game five. And does this mess up your rotation?

YOU MAKE THE CALL.
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5/30/2012 8:43:31 PM

SouthernBeaver
SouthernBeaver
Posts: 200
I'd play every game like it's my last... AFTER entering the loser's bracket.
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5/30/2012 8:43:52 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Really tough call. Reading an olive story just on this topic.. looks like Keudell might go on Saturday. I trust Gold and Reed to have a decent day. They actually pitched better vs OSU.. then our ace. I know Alex.. he will bounce back and have a great game. He wants to pitch as many innings as it takes. Also seems that Brando Tessar is almost back. That is absolutely great news. This could be the variable that gets us through. As for the Beavs.. stick with your rotation. Frye probably is the best bet anyway. You guys also have a big variable with starr.. giving you guys more depth.
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5/31/2012 9:13:45 AM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 611
pretty sure that is how we approached our regional last year, against Arkansas Pine Bluff. unless you have a real difficult #4 seed which doesnt happen often (see Fresno State 2008), that is what i would do. you are playing a vastly inferior team, why burn your ace when you have a harder team, especially one that is getting hot (like the beavs) most likely waiting for you on saturday.

Also matchups play a part, I was listening to the Joe Beaver show on 1240am yesterday and John Warren was talking about how Casey was considering holding Wetzler for saturday because LSU is a R heavy lineup and he is a Lefty, so the matchup might be better. not sure what the beavs will do, but after further consideration, i would throw wetzler friday, Frye on saturday, this allows wetzler the rest for a critical game 5 if needed.

in short, as the #1 seed more times than not hold your ace for saturday

--
GO BEAVS!
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5/31/2012 9:41:22 AM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 218
It's a no brainer. If you're the #1 seed, you throw your ace on Saturday. The reward is much greater than the risk.
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5/31/2012 1:08:12 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
MiamiBaseball wrote:
It's a no brainer. If you're the #1 seed, you throw your ace on Saturday. The reward is much greater than the risk.

How many 1 seeds are going to do this? I bet Stanford does, facing Fresno State, who already beat their ace once this year.

As for the L/R matchup with LSU, Fry and Wetzler are both lefties. And I read that LSU hits lefties at a +.015 (+.025 maybe?) better clip than righties.
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5/31/2012 5:50:15 PM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 218
Dodger Matt wrote:
MiamiBaseball wrote:
It's a no brainer. If you're the #1 seed, you throw your ace on Saturday. The reward is much greater than the risk.

How many 1 seeds are going to do this? I bet Stanford does, facing Fresno State, who already beat their ace once this year.

As for the L/R matchup with LSU, Fry and Wetzler are both lefties. And I read that LSU hits lefties at a +.015 (+.025 maybe?) better clip than righties.


I would be willing to bet that 12 of 16 #1 seeds hold their ace for Saturday. Of course there are going to be matchups where you feel that you just can't hold him back, but most #1's feel good with their #2 pitcher out there in that first game. Again, there isn't much risk, but there is a big reward.
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6/1/2012 1:29:35 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Horton is going with our 3 guy, Jeff gold.
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6/1/2012 1:42:22 AM

Tommy Salami
Tommy Salami
Posts: 35
South Carolina is saving Michael Roth, the ace, for Saturday. A lot of top seeds do this in the regional. It is very important to win the first 2 games and this gives the best chance of doing that.
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6/1/2012 9:56:06 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Kind of a reverse friday start ..lol If we can win the first with our 3, second with our 2.. that sets up the championship with our pac pitcher of the year. Wow. Horton is going for the throat.
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6/1/2012 10:12:05 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Why the heck did UCLA throw Plutko against Creighton? Confused
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6/1/2012 10:22:18 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Dodger Matt wrote:
Why the heck did UCLA throw Plutko against Creighton? Confused

They wanted to no hit the team. That is all I can think of. Is UCLA solid 2 and 3? If my memory serves me right.. UCLA has good middle relievers.. that is probably what they are banking on.
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6/1/2012 10:26:38 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Tommy Salami wrote:
South Carolina is saving Michael Roth, the ace, for Saturday. A lot of top seeds do this in the regional. It is very important to win the first 2 games and this gives the best chance of doing that.

came very close to back firing. Although the squeaker, I think Gold has 4 innings in him if they need him two or three games out. No way Oregon pitches reed.. Who thinks 1 versus 1 in OR CSF game tomorrow?
Home field advantage is so huge. Ducks were not great.. just barely won.
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6/2/2012 12:07:05 AM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Right, as you said, AZ threw Kurt Heyer, who went a full nine innings. And Stanford went with Mark Appel. I was just told there is little risk and big reward. Looked like the Ducks were facing one of those little risks until the ninth inning.

I wonder if Miami or Baylor saved their aces.
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6/2/2012 4:16:41 AM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 218
Dodger Matt wrote:
Right, as you said, AZ threw Kurt Heyer, who went a full nine innings. And Stanford went with Mark Appel. I was just told there is little risk and big reward. Looked like the Ducks were facing one of those little risks until the ninth inning.

I wonder if Miami or Baylor saved their aces.



Not sure why this is such a mystery. Most teams saved their aces yesterday. This isn't a new development this year.
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6/2/2012 7:13:20 AM

BeaverQuist
BeaverQuist
Posts: 112
MiamiBaseball wrote:

Not sure why this is such a mystery. Most teams saved their aces yesterday. This isn't a new development this year.


Actually, you are wrong. Most teams threw their aces yesterday.
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6/2/2012 7:19:32 AM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 218
The subject is #1 seeds. And most #1 seeds did not throw their ace yesterday.
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6/2/2012 9:03:01 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Just in the Pac alone- Arizona, UCLA, Stanford started their true 1, and beavers might yell at me, but I feel they threw their best starter yesterday. Although their friday starter will start vs LSU today.
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6/2/2012 10:07:54 AM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
MiamiBaseball wrote:
Not sure why this is such a mystery. Most teams saved their aces yesterday. This isn't a new development this year.

Not mysterious. I posed it as a question, under what circumstances would you throw your ace or withhold him? The "conventional wisdom" I got was that you don't throw your ace in game one if you're a #1 seed; it's a no-brainer. No thinking is necessary, and the circumstances--who the 4 seed is, what their likely ace can do, who the #2 or #3 you expect to meet in game two is, how confident you are of your deuce, etc.--didn't seem to make much difference in that line of reasoning. Yet Savage, Lopez, Marquess, and it appears Steve Smith of Baylor and Jim Morris of Miami, all consulted their brains and made the contrary decision.

Of course, two of them lost even with their aces. So I guess the question is not all that trivial since the risk of losing is not totally averted when you do throw your ace, and brains are probably necessary after all.
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6/2/2012 11:53:11 AM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Had some time to kill this morning, so I looked up all the #1 seeds. Looks like saving your ace is a more common strategy when you are a national seed (no surprise) and the 4 seed you face is going to be someone like Cornell or Bethune-Cupcake. Still, two of the national seeds did go with their ace (1-1 record), and three of those that didn't won a closely contested game.
. . . . . . . . Pitcher . . . . . Rot#. Notes
1 . Florida . . Jonathon Crawford . 3 . Easy shutout no-hitter, 4-0.
2 . UCLA. . . . Adam Plutko . . . . 1 . Won.
3 . Florida St. Scott Sitz. . . . . 3 . Broke 1-1 tie in 5th to win 2-1.
4 . Baylor. . . Josh Turly. . . . . 1 . Lost 4-2.
5 . Oregon. . . Jeff Gold . . . . . 3 . Scored two in b9 to win.
6 . UNC . . . . Hobbs Johnson . . . 3 . Easy win.
7 . LSU . . . . Aaron Nola. . . . . 2 . Broke tie late to win, 4-1.
8 . SoCar . . . Colby Holmes. . . . 3 . Easy shutout win, 7-0.
9 . Virginia. . Branden Kline . . . 1 . In progress.
10. Miami . . . Eric Erickson . . . 1 . Butts kicked by Stony Brook, 10-2.
11. Arizona . . Kurt Heyer. . . . . 1 . Kicked Mizzou's azzou, 15-3.
12. Purdue. . . Joe Haase . . . . . 1 . Won in 2 hrs 10 mins.
13. Rice. . . . John Simms. . . . . 3 . Came from behind in 7th, 3-2.
14. Stanford. . Mark Appel. . . . . 1 . Won.
15. Texas A&M . Michael Wacha . . . 1 . Won.
16. NC State. . Vance Williams. . . 4 . Easy 16-5 win.
Eight #1 seeds that went with their ace. 6-2 record.
Eight #1 seeds that saved their ace. 8-0 record, but four were close, late wins.
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