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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » Pac-12 Regional Predictions

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5/28/2012 10:03:26 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2424
Postseason predictions are a little different from weekly series picks. Because the teams play a double-elimination format, there are more distinct possibilities than the standard 0-3, 1-2, 2-1, and 3-0.

We know that every regional will have a 0-2 team, and a 1-2 team. But the other two could be 2-2, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2, or 4-1. Too many to try to predict and not worth the distinction.

So I've cut the choices down to the following:
  • 3-0: The team sweeps and advances.
  • 3+: The team finishes 4-1 or 3-1 (advances), or 3-2 and is eliminated.
  • 2-2: The team is out.
  • 1-2: The team is out.
  • 0-2: The team is out.
The 3+ team will be the rarest, and it doesn't mean the team will advance. This team could lose one of its first two games and have to play through the loser's bracket, taking at least one from the 2-0 winner's bracket team before falling (3-2) or beating them a second time (4-1).This team could also be the winner's bracket team (2-0) that loses its first game to the loser's bracket team then wins the final game (3-1).

Note that if the winner's bracket (2-0) team loses both of the final games to the loser's bracket team, it becomes a 2-2 team.

Correctly picking a 3+ team is tricky, so we give it a slight edge in points over the standard 0-2, 1-2, and 2-2 picks.
To make it simpler, think in these terms:
  • 3-0: The team is so good it wins three straight.
  • 3+: The team is inconsistent or faces a tough team in its bracket, and it is strong enough to lose one and force a second game for the regional crown.
  • 2-2: The team is good but not great.
  • 1-2: The team will enjoy a weekend vacation at the school's expense.
  • 0-2: The team is Sacred Heart, Let's Go Peay, Creighton, Manhattan, or Bethune-Cupcake.
Here's what the points matrix looks like:

You pick: . .0-2 . 1-2 . 2-2 . 3-0 . 3+
----------------------------------------
0-2 . . . . .4 . . .3 . . 2 . . 0 . . 0
1-2 . . . . .3 . . .4 . . 3 . . 1 . . 1
2-2 . . . . .1 . . .2 . . 4 . . 2 . . 2
3-0 . . . . .0 . . .1 . . 2 . . 6 . . 4
3+ .. . . . .1 . . .2 . . 3 . . 3 . . 5
Here are the regionals and their participants. The first two numbers are ISR and RPI. The last number is win-loss record.

  • 8 14 Arizona 38-17
  • 44 34 New Mexico State 35-22
  • 58 42 Louisville 39-20
  • 72 74 Missouri 32-26
  • 3 6 Oregon 42-17
  • 15 20 Cal State Fullerton 35-19
  • 41 49 Indiana State 41-17
  • 111 123 Austin Peay 38-22
  • 11 8 LSU 43-16
  • 9 27 Oregon State 38-18
  • 66 63 Belmont 39-22
  • 104 118 Louisiana-Monroe 31-28
  • 2 15 Stanford 38-16
  • 24 29 Pepperdine 34-21
  • 55 45 Michigan State 37-21
  • 71 78 Fresno State 30-26
  • 1 2 UCLA 42-14
  • 16 33 San Diego 40-15
  • 37 57 New Mexico 36-22
  • 120 148 Creighton 26-28
Keep your votes in the order listed and use the abbreviations. Here's a sample vote:
  • Ariz 1-2
  • Ore 0-2
  • OSU 3+
  • Stan 2-2
  • UCLA 3-0
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5/28/2012 10:36:21 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1463
Neat stuff DM. I might have to crack open my good scotch and a good cigar while I work on my picks.
edited by BeaverBob on 5/28/2012
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5/28/2012 10:44:05 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1463
It would be great to see Kendall and some of the non-Pac 12 folks jump in and play this week.
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5/28/2012 10:49:38 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2424
We have had Dave, our Fullerton fan, play all year. And now he has a vested interest in one of these regionals because the Titans are playing in Eugene. It'll be interesting to see how he picks.
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5/28/2012 11:46:09 PM

MostUnknown
MostUnknown
Posts: 156
I'll probably edit these after thinking a little more:

Ariz 3-0
Ore 3+
OSU 2-2
Stan 3-0
UCLA 3-0

Arizona makes me wonder. Part of me wants to say they'll drop one.
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5/29/2012 11:07:22 AM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 611
as usually tends to happen this time of year, being the most familiar with the pac 12 teams, i tend to over value them a little bit, this year it might not be the case as all except OSU are 1 seed hosts which would IMPLY easy road to the next round, however as we all know that is not always the case (see UCLA last year)

Ariz 3-0 the Cats have been at times inconsistent, but being the conf co-champs and the fact that the #2 seed in thier regional is 20 spots behind in RPI and even further in ISR Zona should have a relatively easy weekend

Ore 3+ I think that the duckies will advance but will lose 1 to Fullerton ( i just dont know which one), who is always a good team and will be motivated to show up for their old coach. Yes they are limping into the post season following the sweep at the hands of the beavs, but that should serve as motivation to prove they deserve their natl ranking (plus they have the standard set by the softball team to live up to as well)

OSU 3+ even as a beaver fan this is the hardest regional to predict, first off which beaver team shows up? the one that swept Ore, and took 2 of 3 from UCLA and Stanford? or the one that lost to USC, and struggled to put away Utah? They have the pitching to match up well against LSU and the bats have been decent as of late, if they can get a good game from Fry on saturday against most likely LSU then i think they win the regional, and pray for an upset in miami so to host a super. This one is going to be interesting.

Stan 3-0 with such a large gap between the cardinal and the rest of the field in RPI and ISR this SHOULD be pretty easy for stanford, but with the struggles down the stretch especially after Cal, do they have enough to get through? I think so

UCLA 3+ Ahh UCLA... frequently get to host, and frequently doesnt make it out alive, this year, UCLA avoids the "regional of death" that has plagued them in recent years, San Diego is a very good club and I think will take one from the bruins, but UCLA puts the past firmly where it belongs and advances to the super regional round

all and all will be a good weekend for the Conference of Champions, all 4 host teams will advance, and with a little luck the Beavs will as well, nothing would please me more than to see all 5 teams hosting a super (wont happen) and make Omaha (also probably wont happen) and best of all a Civil War for the Title (almost certainly wont happen, but hey a guy can dream)

--
GO BEAVS!
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5/29/2012 11:36:18 AM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 218
Ariz 3-0
Ore 3+
OSU 2-2
Stan 3-0
UCLA 3-0
edited by MiamiBaseball on 5/29/2012
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5/29/2012 11:39:47 AM

SouthernBeaver
SouthernBeaver
Posts: 200
Ariz 3-0
Ore 3+
OSU 3+
Stan 3-0
UCLA 3-0


Hoping that either everyone but oregon advances, or that everyone advances until we end up with a CW championship.
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5/29/2012 1:58:23 PM

BeaverQuist
BeaverQuist
Posts: 112
Ariz 3+
The least scarey team is the 2 seed in my opinion in this regional. Arizona better not sleep on Mizzou either, as they just won the Big-12 Tournament to get into the postseason, they'll be riding an emotional high for the weekend. I also think Louisville is one of the more dangerous 3 seeds. I think Arizona will get through, but they'll take a loss from someone.

Ore 3-0
I think Oregon cruises in this regional. CSF can be scary good in the post season, but I think Oregon matches up very well against them.

OSU 3+
I think this regional comes down to LSU and Oregon State. I think OSU will take at least one loss, but also take one against LSU too. So they either advance or bow out in the elimination game.

Stanford 3-0
This team is far too talented to not skate through this regional. Fresno State is a tough 4 seed draw, but Michigan State is a team that has no business in the postseason. I don't see Pepperdine getting the job done either.

UCLA 3-0
This should be easy breezy for the Bruins.
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5/29/2012 6:52:04 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1219
kinda wild, but here goes my picks...

Ariz 3+
Ore 2-2
OSU 3+
Stan 3-0
UCLA 3+
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5/29/2012 7:13:45 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
  • Ariz 1-2
  • Ore 3-0
  • OSU 3+
  • Stan 2-2
  • UCLA 3-0
  • 0 permalink
    5/30/2012 12:41:34 PM

    borgguy
    borgguy
    Posts: 611
    this thread is falling and we only have a few predictions, figure i will try and bump it up a bit

    --
    GO BEAVS!
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    5/30/2012 1:11:44 PM

    WildCard85
    WildCard85
    Posts: 78
    ARIZ 3+
    ORE 3+
    OSU 2-2
    STAN 3-0
    UCLA 3-0

    GO CARDINAL !!
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    5/30/2012 2:59:32 PM

    ConnorOSU
    ConnorOSU
    Posts: 127
    Ariz 3+
    Ore 3+
    OSU 3+
    Stan 3+
    UCLA 3+
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    5/30/2012 3:52:26 PM

    Riverduck
    Riverduck
    Posts: 2290
    Pretty good Q&A session by Fitt @ BA..
    http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/college/chat/2012/2613479.html
    Had good explanation on why Oregon/OSU where in the spot they are in. 9-8 top 25, versus 13-7 for the ducks. He did give kudos to your freshman class... said they should be Omaha bound next year. Wow-
    He also thnks the #4 team could spoil the ducks/fullerton finale.. Two more days!!

    Yeah- Rivals was a place a hung as well. thanks for the link!
    Found a good breakdown of the eugene regional. http://collegebaseball.rivals.com/showmsg.asp?fid=2308&tid=155474524&mid=155474524&sid=1169&style=2
    edited by Riverduck on 5/30/2012
    edited by Riverduck on 5/30/2012
    edited by Riverduck on 5/30/2012
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    5/30/2012 4:26:34 PM

    borgguy
    borgguy
    Posts: 611
    I agree, i do not think that our total body of work (loss against USC and zona, swept by ASU) and struggles against Utah and WSU is strong enough to warrant a regional host...

    i think sweeps of both Utah and WSU while not really great RPI wise would have been enough to make the committe consider the beavs as host, as they would also be pac12 co champs... but since that didnt happen, i agree with being a #2 seed, just wish we were somewhere other than LSU
    edited by borgguy on 5/30/2012

    --
    GO BEAVS!
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    5/30/2012 10:16:26 PM

    OpihiMan
    OpihiMan
    Posts: 1111
    Ariz 3-0
    Ore 2-2
    OSU 3+
    Stan 3-0
    UCLA 3-0
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    5/30/2012 11:27:40 PM

    BeaverBob
    BeaverBob
    Posts: 1463
    Ariz 3+
    Ore 2-2
    OSU 3+
    Stan 3-0
    UCLA 3+
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    5/31/2012 4:39:03 PM

    borgguy
    borgguy
    Posts: 611
    decided to take a look at the full bracket, and if all 5 pac12 teams advance to Omaha one whole side of the CWS bracket would be pac 12 the first round would have UCLA v OSU and Zona v Stan with the Duckies all by themselves on the other side. it would gaurantee a pac 12 a spot in the championship game. just something to think about

    --
    GO BEAVS!
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    5/31/2012 10:54:00 PM

    Dodger Matt
    Dodger Matt
    Posts: 2424
    Seems like a lot of folks have similar picks. I probably should have asked for a tiebreaker of some sort. Oh well. I was going to go one way, then I decided to change one pick so I would not have the same picks as another voter.

    Ariz 3-0
    Ore 3-0
    OSU 3+
    Stan 3-0
    UCLA 3-0

    Honestly, the only one I'm thinking will be tough is OSU over LSU, although there are possibilities for an upset in each of the other four.
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