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5/28/2012 10:31:53 AM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Oregon State is #2 seed at National Seed #7 LSU's regional.

Oregon State will open the regional against No. 3 Belmont (Atlantic Sun Conference) while LSU takes on No. 4 Louisiana-Monroe (Sun Belt Conference).

Oregon State article.
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5/28/2012 10:35:22 AM

BeaverQuist
BeaverQuist
Posts: 112
I don't like that we get shipped every year we don't host to somewhere East, but oh well, what can you do?

We got dealt a tough 1 seed in LSU, but we should be able to take care of business against Belmont or ULM (if neccesary).

I wonder who we'll throw in the first game. Probably Wetzler and then throw Fry against the LSU/ULM winner/loser.

Looking forward to this upcoming weekend already!
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5/28/2012 10:39:04 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Wow- I am blown away- #5 seed, playing fullerton. Looks like the beavos got really screwed on that one. This is a gift from the baseball gods if I ever saw one. The road to a CWS does not get any better than this. Now for us to capitlize, is another story. Horton comes out of that one smelling like roses. I was proud of our coach also giving interviews.. he knew besides getting embarrassed, that home field advantage is what is about. Just look at the beavs.. get them away from their stadium and it is like superman got hit by krypto..
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5/28/2012 10:46:52 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
BeaverQuist wrote:
I don't like that we get shipped every year we don't host to somewhere East, but oh well, what can you do?

We got dealt a tough 1 seed in LSU, but we should be able to take care of business against Belmont or ULM (if neccesary).

I wonder who we'll throw in the first game. Probably Wetzler and then throw Fry against the LSU/ULM winner/loser.

Looking forward to this upcoming weekend already!

I would start Starr- use schultz and child out of the pen. Frye 2nd, Wetzler 3rd.. title game.
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5/28/2012 10:49:25 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
I do hope you guys make it super far- gives validity that your brand of baseball is really solid right now. (which it is) Conforto is shaping up to be a first round pick IMO
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5/28/2012 10:50:26 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Riverduck wrote:
I do hope you guys make it super far- gives validity that your brand of baseball is really solid right now. (which it is) Conforto is shaping up to be a first round pick IMO

Wish he could go pro after this year lol.
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5/28/2012 10:52:10 AM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 611
well the bracket shapes up to allow a civil war battle for the national title, which i think all of us beaver and duck fans would love. so that said Go beavers, go UL Monroe, go Pac12, and go anyone but miami!

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GO BEAVS!
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5/28/2012 10:53:43 AM

ASU74
ASU74
Posts: 1035
Riverduck wrote:
Wow- I am blown away- #5 seed, playing fullerton. Looks like the beavos got really screwed on that one. This is a gift from the baseball gods if I ever saw one. The road to a CWS does not get any better than this. Now for us to capitlize, is another story. Horton comes out of that one smelling like roses. I was proud of our coach also giving interviews.. he knew besides getting embarrassed, that home field advantage is what is about. Just look at the beavs.. get them away from their stadium and it is like superman got hit by krypto..


RD:
Be careful what you wish for. I have never trusted CSF. Regardless of the quality of their team for any given year, they almost always start playing at a much higher level in the post season.

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Go Devils !!
Fork Off
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5/28/2012 10:54:35 AM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 611
BeaverQuist wrote:
I don't like that we get shipped every year we don't host to somewhere East, but oh well, what can you do?

We got dealt a tough 1 seed in LSU, but we should be able to take care of business against Belmont or ULM (if neccesary).

I wonder who we'll throw in the first game. Probably Wetzler and then throw Fry against the LSU/ULM winner/loser.

Looking forward to this upcoming weekend already!


honestly i would hold wetzler for LSU use Fry against Belmont

--
GO BEAVS!
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5/28/2012 11:12:27 AM

BeaverBeliever20
BeaverBeliever20
Posts: 129
borgguy wrote:
BeaverQuist wrote:
I don't like that we get shipped every year we don't host to somewhere East, but oh well, what can you do?

We got dealt a tough 1 seed in LSU, but we should be able to take care of business against Belmont or ULM (if neccesary).

I wonder who we'll throw in the first game. Probably Wetzler and then throw Fry against the LSU/ULM winner/loser.

Looking forward to this upcoming weekend already!


honestly i would hold wetzler for LSU use Fry against Belmont




Wetzler against LSU would not go well. He's had a lot of trouble the last few starts of walking the house. With him having major control issues the last 2 starts, LSU would kill him. Best is Wetzler against Belmont, Fry against LSU-ULM winner. Hopefully the Beavers can go Wetzler-Fry-Child and advance. But I think ultimately the Beavers and LSU will end up playing Monday with the winner advancing to the super regionals. Gonna be a tough regional, should be good.
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5/28/2012 2:12:23 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Some stats from Boyd and Massey.
ISR  ISR#   W   L   PCT   SOS RPI  RPI#   
11 120.4 42 16 0.729 45 8 0.603 Louisiana State
9 120.8 38 18 0.679 14 27 0.577 Oregon State
66 109.4 39 22 0.639 131 63 0.543 Belmont
104 105.0 31 28 0.525 104 118 0.516 Louisiana-Monroe

Massey
Team. . . . Rat. . . . Pwr . . . .Off . . . .Def . . . HFA . . . . Sch
OSU . . . . 8 2.08 . . 8 9.37. . 10 10.22 . .28 4.71 . 176 0.73. . 13 7.44
LSU . . . .10 2.02 . .15 8.96. . 22 .9.75 . .26 4.77 . 393 0.48. . 51 6.54
Belmont . .72 1.46 . .72 6.83. .173 .7.87 . .33 4.52 . .60 0.96. .129 5.21
ULM . . . 112 1.27 . .98 6.20. . 79 .8.74 . 129 3.02 . 694 0.19. . 97 5.70
Notes:
  • From an ISR standpoint, LSU is facing a legitimate #1, and the #4 is one of the few good ones.
  • From the Rat's Patootie side, Oregon State is the only one ranked radically differently from its ISR.
  • According to Massey, LSU has a slightly better defense than OSU (surprise #1) and OSU has an edge in offense (surprise #2).
  • LSU does not get a huge bump from playing at home (surprise #3). I always thought those huge Box crowds were a huge advantage for the Tigers, but if you play the two teams under Massey's matchups comparison, LSU has a 54 to 45% favorability. If the game were played at a neutral site, OSU would be favored 53 to 47%. If the game were played at Oregon State, the Beavers would have a 63 to 37% favorability.
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5/28/2012 2:54:43 PM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 611
Thanks Matt i always enjoy the number crunching you do, one of many reasons i enjoy this site. i do have a question that you may be able to answer, i understand that the RPI and ISR are totally different, and that the RPI aint worth a darn, but what i dont know is what the formulas are for each one and how they arrive at their numbers?

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GO BEAVS!
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5/28/2012 4:13:00 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1216
Riverduck wrote:
Wow- I am blown away- #5 seed, playing fullerton. Looks like the beavos got really screwed on that one. This is a gift from the baseball gods if I ever saw one. The road to a CWS does not get any better than this. Now for us to capitlize, is another story. Horton comes out of that one smelling like roses. I was proud of our coach also giving interviews.. he knew besides getting embarrassed, that home field advantage is what is about. Just look at the beavs.. get them away from their stadium and it is like superman got hit by krypto..


HUH? May I remind you we went 20-7 in the closing weeks, including taking series from Stanford, UCLA, Utah and you, so I don't know where u get this kryptonite crap. Y'all just better hope this last weekend is not where your play is at. Your ace Kruedell and your badass closer both sucked this last weekend.
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5/28/2012 4:29:34 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
They're not totally different. The RPIs just stop after a certain point (opponents and opponents' opponents) and the ISRs keep going. Boyd explains the differences on his FAQ, if you're interested in the details. Massey also uses an iterative system; that's why his numbers are closer to Boyd's than the RPI. And if you've heard of Warren Nolan, who does a pretty good overview of all teams and their strengths and weaknesses in terms of making the postseason (the Nitty Gritty Report), he also uses an RPI-based rating system.
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5/28/2012 5:00:21 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Pitching matchups

Granted, this will not be a three-game series, and we will most likely only match up with LSU on day two (as laid out below) because, regardless of who wins game two, the pitching matchups will be off for one team's third game and the other's fourth (if we meet twice)--but here's how the two teams' three starters compare.

. . . . . . . . ERA. . . W-L . . OBA . . . WHIP
-------------------------------------------------
Wetzler, Ben . . 3.30 . . 6-2 . . 0.245 . . 1.44
Kevin Gausman. . 2.84 . .10-1 . . 0.231 . . 1.10

Fry, Jace. . . . 2.47 . . 5-3 . . 0.211 . . 1.22
Aaron Nola . . . 3.93 . . 6-4 . . 0.253 . . 1.18

Child, Dan . . . 2.80 . . 6-3 . . 0.271 . . 1.32
Ryan Eades . . . 3.36 . . 5-2 . . 0.282 . . 1.53

Whether LSU throws Gausman against Lou-Monroe or holds him for the winner of the OSU-Belmont game is another question. But if Oregon State stays with its Wetzler-Fry-Child rotation, the Beavers will have the pitching advantage (by the numbers) in the critical game two, even if LSU holds Gausman for game two.
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5/28/2012 5:07:39 PM

ConnorOSU
ConnorOSU
Posts: 127
Riverduck wrote:
Wow- I am blown away- #5 seed, playing fullerton. Looks like the beavos got really screwed on that one. This is a gift from the baseball gods if I ever saw one. The road to a CWS does not get any better than this. Now for us to capitlize, is another story. Horton comes out of that one smelling like roses. I was proud of our coach also giving interviews.. he knew besides getting embarrassed, that home field advantage is what is about. Just look at the beavs.. get them away from their stadium and it is like superman got hit by krypto..


Yeah, we really got hit with krypto when we won 7-1 in YOUR park.
-1 permalink
5/28/2012 6:10:09 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Batting comparisons

These look pretty even. If you just grab the top three from each category, you'd have to give the Beavers a slight edge. I'm surprised the small ball Oregon State team has two at the top of the slugging table above the original gorilla ballers.
Batting average
Raph Rhymes . . . . . 0.459
Smith, Tyler. . . . . 0.350
Conforto, Michael . . 0.343
Mason Katz. . . . . . 0.335
Jordy Snikeris. . . . 0.329
Hayes, Danny. . . . . 0.317
Austin Nola . . . . . 0.308
Gorton, Ryan. . . . . 0.306
Ty Ross . . . . . . . 0.305
Dunn, Ryan. . . . . . 0.299
Tyler Hanover . . . . 0.294
Rodriguez, Jake . . . 0.290
Barnes, Ryan. . . . . 0.277
Jackson Slaid . . . . 0.271
Tyler Moore . . . . . 0.270
Gordon, Max . . . . . 0.267

OBP
Raph Rhymes . . . . . 0.513
Hayes, Danny. . . . . 0.474
Smith, Tyler. . . . . 0.440
Conforto, Michael . . 0.435
Gorton, Ryan. . . . . 0.430
Austin Nola . . . . . 0.429
Mason Katz. . . . . . 0.426
Barnes, Ryan. . . . . 0.413
Jordy Snikeris. . . . 0.388
Dunn, Ryan. . . . . . 0.383
Gordon, Max . . . . . 0.383
Tyler Hanover . . . . 0.375
Rodriguez, Jake . . . 0.371
Ty Ross . . . . . . . 0.362
Jackson Slaid . . . . 0.352
Tyler Moore . . . . . 0.336


Slugging
Conforto, Michael . . 0.603
Hayes, Danny. . . . . 0.574
Mason Katz. . . . . . 0.564
Raph Rhymes . . . . . 0.555
Dunn, Ryan. . . . . . 0.488
Jordy Snikeris. . . . 0.487
Austin Nola . . . . . 0.443
Smith, Tyler. . . . . 0.431
Ty Ross . . . . . . . 0.402
Jackson Slaid . . . . 0.396
Tyler Moore . . . . . 0.377
Tyler Hanover . . . . 0.373
Rodriguez, Jake . . . 0.373
Barnes, Ryan. . . . . 0.364
Gorton, Ryan. . . . . 0.342
Gordon, Max . . . . . 0.333
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5/28/2012 9:26:16 PM

beav360
beav360
Posts: 2
Riverduck wrote:
Wow- I am blown away- #5 seed, playing fullerton. Looks like the beavos got really screwed on that one. This is a gift from the baseball gods if I ever saw one. The road to a CWS does not get any better than this. Now for us to capitlize, is another story. Horton comes out of that one smelling like roses. I was proud of our coach also giving interviews.. he knew besides getting embarrassed, that home field advantage is what is about. Just look at the beavs.. get them away from their stadium and it is like superman got hit by krypto..
-1 permalink
5/28/2012 9:32:04 PM

beav360
beav360
Posts: 2
BEAVS @ HOME 18-6/AWAY-15-11/NEUTRAL-5-1
DUCKS @HOME 25-6/AWAY16-11/NEUTRAL 1-0
There doesn't seem to be much difference except the BEAVS traveled a bit more than the Ducks-Krypto is about the same
-1 permalink
5/29/2012 12:17:01 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Florida Beaver wrote:
Riverduck wrote:
Wow- I am blown away- #5 seed, playing fullerton. Looks like the beavos got really screwed on that one. This is a gift from the baseball gods if I ever saw one. The road to a CWS does not get any better than this. Now for us to capitlize, is another story. Horton comes out of that one smelling like roses. I was proud of our coach also giving interviews.. he knew besides getting embarrassed, that home field advantage is what is about. Just look at the beavs.. get them away from their stadium and it is like superman got hit by krypto..


HUH? May I remind you we went 20-7 in the closing weeks, including taking series from Stanford, UCLA, Utah and you, so I don't know where u get this kryptonite crap. Y'all just better hope this last weekend is not where your play is at. Your ace Kruedell and your badass closer both sucked this last weekend.

Yep- and since when do you rate a player off one weekend? Come on FB.. quit talking like an amateur.. Since you guys totally dominated us, and everyone says "best in state" from one weekend.. you guys should have no problem vs belmont. We beat them by nine.. so I expect you should whip them by 18 or more...
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