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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » PG 64: Projecting the NCAA field (5.22)

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5/22/2012 8:18:53 AM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7488
Here are the latest NCAA postseason projections:

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=7049

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/22/2012 5:38:26 PM

rcw1126
rcw1126
Posts: 48
UNC goes 4-0 on the week, is on a 13-game winning streak, and their staff era just keeps falling ...and they fall from a 4 seed to a 7 seed. That makes complete sense.

Oh well, I suppose I need to keep in mind that the only thing that's certain about any of these projections is that they'll be wrong.
edited by rcw1126 on 5/22/2012
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5/22/2012 6:34:39 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2076
UW is one of the next ten in. Can they make it if they sweep Wazzu in the Apple Cup series? Or would they have to do that and hope someone already in falters?
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5/22/2012 7:17:07 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2098
rcw1126 wrote:
UNC goes 4-0 on the week, is on a 13-game winning streak, and their staff era just keeps falling ...and they fall from a 4 seed to a 7 seed. That makes complete sense.

Oh well, I suppose I need to keep in mind that the only thing that's certain about any of these projections is that they'll be wrong.
edited by rcw1126 on 5/22/2012

All I can think of is they're strength of schedule is a 50.. which is the highest from projection 1-12.
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5/22/2012 9:22:13 PM

rcw1126
rcw1126
Posts: 48
What are you talking about?! UNC - Greensboro has an SOS of 51; but that's UNC - Greensboro!

According to warrennolan.com, North Carolina's strength of schedule is 12th (vs. 24th for Oregon). They've played 27 games against Top 50 RPI teams; almost half their schedule (vs. only 20 Top 50 games for Oregon). UNC's RPI rank is 5th (6th on Boyd's World).

You looked at the wrong team.
edited by rcw1126 on 5/22/2012
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5/22/2012 11:34:09 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2076
He's looking at Boyd's ISRs. UNC's SOS = 50; Oregon's = 5
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5/23/2012 12:13:55 AM

rcw1126
rcw1126
Posts: 48
Thanks for pointing me there.

However, if you're trying to replicate what the selection committee is going to come up with; you don't go to Boyd's ISR. You can debate the "correctness" of one algorithm's results versus another's until the cows come home; but, the fact of the matter is that the committee only considers the RPI. Since Boyd's RPI isn't accompanied by an SOS, I turned to the warrennolan; where that algorithm's accompanying SOS is displayed.

None of this, though, addresses the change in the seeding from one week to the next. No matter how you want to calculate any team's SOS as of the end of the season, it's not going to move enough in a single week to serve as the justification of that amount of movement.

What UNC accomplished during most of its ACC schedule without Colin Moran in the lineup is downright extraordinary; and, since his return, they're 12-0. Their current streak of 13 wins is, by far, the longest of any major college team. So, I ask again, what change occurred from last week to take them from a 4 seed to a 7? It had nothing to do with their SOS, regardless of how it's calculated.
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5/23/2012 4:54:43 AM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 106
Dodger Matt wrote:
He's looking at Boyd's ISRs. UNC's SOS = 50; Oregon's = 5




Like rcw said, the guy is starting off on the wrong foot if he is bringing the ISR into a regional projection discussion. It has as much authority as Baseball America does.
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5/24/2012 9:07:49 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2098
I was not trying to be smart.. I think we as fans get caught up in our team, and try to make justifications based on what is in our hearts. I guess I would ask next what is UNC" record versus top 25 teams? Top ten? I looked at your schedule. I know ISR is a moot point when it come to selection monday, but it has some considerations. Just look at all the teams that are going from the Pac12. Their schedule is pretty tough. If you guys win your tournament, then yes- I would say you deserve to be a #2-4 seed. Or maybe #1
edited by Riverduck on 5/24/2012
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5/24/2012 9:43:23 AM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 106
Riverduck wrote:
I know ISR is a moot point when it come to selection monday, but it has some considerations.


Well, it doesn't. Pac-12 teams are going to get in and/or host because they had good seasons. The ISR still has nothing to do with that.
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5/25/2012 12:50:12 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2076
Question on national seeds WRT pac-12 teams:
  • Oregon and UCLA both are listed under the RPI Needs Report as finishing within the top 8 even if both are swept this weekend.
  • Arizona apparently can't make the top 8 cutoff even if they sweep ASU.
  • If the Ducks and perhaps UCLA falter and Arizona manages to take the Pac-12 crown outright, regardless of their RPI, do they get a national seed? What if Oregon is swept and they lose the Pac-12 crown--do they still get a national seed over Arizona in that situation?
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5/25/2012 1:54:13 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2098
Me being positive- not going to matter because the ducks will win the series. I think there is actually more stress on the beavers.. can they hit off the conferences best pitching staff?
I guess we will all wait and see. I wonder what would happen with the beavs crowd if the ducks swept at Goss. Casey would have to come back, although they might win one at a regional (Casey's all time win for a beavs coach)
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5/25/2012 1:55:50 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2098
rcw1126 wrote:
What are you talking about?! UNC - Greensboro has an SOS of 51; but that's UNC - Greensboro!

According to warrennolan.com, North Carolina's strength of schedule is 12th (vs. 24th for Oregon). They've played 27 games against Top 50 RPI teams; almost half their schedule (vs. only 20 Top 50 games for Oregon). UNC's RPI rank is 5th (6th on Boyd's World).
Aw shoot- should not even answer. I have had tunnel vision, focusing on the pac only. My fault.

You looked at the wrong team.
edited by rcw1126 on 5/22/2012
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5/25/2012 1:59:20 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2076
Riverduck wrote:
I think there is actually more stress on the beavers.

Nah. Beavers have nothing to lose. They're in the postseason regardless of this weekend's results, the only difference being whether they get to be a 2 on the road or a 3 on the road. And that distinction often means nothing because they often pick the higher RPI as the 2, meaning the higher ISR team (and often the better team) would be the 3. For the Ducks OTOH, they have the Pac-12 title and a national seed on the line. And they're playing on the road, in a stadium where they are 1-6. Much more stress on them.
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5/25/2012 2:53:47 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2098
Yeah- I understand.. much more on the line, but I think these guys can continue to do what they have been doing. I think their bats are going to be alive, and the pitching and defense solid. How slow is the outfield when it is wet? Do you think that will be a factor? The infield should play similiar to PK, beside the dirt plate area, or is it still dirt?
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5/25/2012 2:55:31 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2098
Also, this is what Horton lives for.. I feel his team will be ready. They have won a ton of games without a huge talent pool. If our pitchers hit their spots, and are on their game.. it should be a fast, close game. One error could be the deciding factor for both teams.
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5/25/2012 4:36:51 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2076
Only dirt left is on the bump.
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