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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » Pac-12 Predictions: Week 5

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3/13/2012 7:34:41 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Week 5

Let me start with a note on how conference play scoring will be handled. Because we have an odd number of teams in the conference now and most weeks will have six series (one a nonconference affair), all weekly scores will be averaged to come out with a six-series average. That means when we have only five series (like this week and a couple others), each series will count 6/5 (or 120%).

First week of conference play features two top-25 matchups and three other series with a ranked team. Stanford does not play this weekend.

This week's games
  • #12 ASU (10-4) at #14 UCLA (12-3)
  • #19 OSU (11-5) at #21 Cal (11-3)
  • #20 Ore (12-3) at UW (10-5)
  • WSU (8-5) at #9 Ariz (13-2)
  • Utah (4-11) at #27 USC (12-3)
Week 5 Series
  • The top series has the 12th ranked Sun Devils visiting UCLA. Both teams are doing well and coming off series wins, but UCLA’s was more impressive: a road sweep of a nationally ranked SEC team. Should be a great series, but you have to give a slight edge to the home team.
  • Another pretty good and even matchup has the Beavers visiting Berkeley. Oregon State is on a mild upswing, having finished with the best record at the Nike College Showcase this weekend with three wins over Oklahoma, Illinois, and West Virginia. OSU has shown some surprisingly good offense coupled with a strengthening starting pitching squad. Cal split 2-2 with a middling Nebraska team, winning one of those two games in extra innings and getting outscored 29-25.
  • Despite losing twice this last weekend, Oregon still has the third best record in the conference. The Ducks travel to Seattle to battle the Huskies, who dropped two to Cal Poly. The Ducks are clear favorites, but don’t misunderestimate [sic] Husky antipathy toward the Mallards. UW plays fellow PNW teams tough, even when they suck, and this year’s UW squad is moving upward from suckiness to not-so-sucky. So if you’re a Ducky it would be unlucky to get stuck by the not-so-sucky Huskies.
  • Wazzu faced an unexpectedly tough opponent in UNLV last week, in which all three games were decided by one run, and the Cougs finished on the losing end of those games twice. They have the misfortune of opening conference play in Tucson against the 9th ranked Wildcats, who are tied with Stanford for the conference’s best record. Granted, Arizona has played an incredibly weak schedule, but they are at home.
  • Utah gets its first taste of Pac-12 play as an official member, and boy will they be happy to make it close in one of those games against the Trojans, who will probably be sitting at the top of the conference standings after this week.
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3/15/2012 10:28:36 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Bob, we need to figure out what you're doing to get that formatting in your posts. Are you copying from a table, or from another program?

Just a note: Because of expected inclement weather, the Golden Beavers will take on Cal at noon Friday, the first official Pac-12 baseball game ever. So if you haven't posted your picks by then, you're outa luck this week.

Here are my picks.
  • UCLA 2-1
  • OSU 2-1
  • Ore 2-1
  • Ariz 2-1
  • USC 3-0
Also, don't be spooked by the low scores this week. (Our scores, not the baseball teams'.) We have half as many series as we did for the the preseason predictions, and conference play usually involves far fewer sweeps. The absolute maximum possible for six series--36 pts.--is going to be awfully hard to come by. Expect prediction scores in the low to mid-20s. I'll probably post pick analyses sometime tomorrow morning.

Also remember that raw scores will be adjusted by 1.2 points this week to account for 5 series instead of 6.

Good luck to all!
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3/16/2012 5:41:25 AM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1216
Thanks DM. We so much appreciate you doing this. I really look forward to this each week.
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