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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » Pac-12 Predictions: Week 5

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3/17/2012 3:47:16 PM

Daweez04
Daweez04
Posts: 44
Dodger Matt wrote:
Daweez04 wrote:

High school friend was on the 2009 team. Then went on to be an assistant for my dad's team (coaches JV girls at my old High School). She is now working for Rueck and the OSU WBB team. Seems everything comes back to being connected between OSU and GF

Kuenzi? Very attractive family.

Championship game between unbeaten George Fox (32-0) and Illinois Wesleyan University (27-5) Saturday at 4pm PT.


Yep! That is her. She was 2 years behind me, her brother was my age. Grew up playing on a lot of the same little league teams.

Glad to see the GF program continue without Rueck. Too bad the game is right before the WNIT game, he probably wont get to watch much of it.

Go Bruins (the GF ones), Go Beavs!
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3/17/2012 7:11:39 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2086
Heartbreak loss by George Fox. Their leading scorer was injured after only two minutes of play, and was out for the rest of the game. They still led as late as with two minutes left, but couldn't hold on in the last 40 seconds. A great season, but it could have been more.
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3/17/2012 9:03:45 PM

Daweez04
Daweez04
Posts: 44
Yep, good season, tough way to end it.

Back to baseball, how bout 'dem Beavs and their starting rotation?

16 IP, 3R, 2 ER from Weztler and Child today in the DH sweep.

Offense is playing small ball to perfection, pretty fun stuff.
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3/17/2012 10:06:04 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2086
Day two
All we had to today were double-headers--three of them.
  • UCLA and Arizona State are rained out. DH Sunday.
    UCLA leads series 1-0.

  • Game one: Washington 5, Oregon 0: The Huskies wasted no time bouncing off yesterday’s win by scoring 4 in the 1st inning on four singles, a walk, and a sacrifice. Tyler Davis pitched 6 innings or the win. Oregon’s Jake Reed pitched the entire game (8.0 IP), recovering quite well after the 1st and allowing only an unearned run in the 5th. UW’s Chase Anselment went 3 for 4, and Jacob Lamb was 2 for 4 with 2 RBIs. JJ Altobelli went 2 for 4 for the losing Ducks.

  • Game two: Oregon 3, Washington 2 (13 innings): The Huskies scored one in the 3rd on a leadoff double, a sac bunt, and a single. The Ducks took a 2-1 lead in the 6th on a 2-run double by Aaron Jones. With a one-run lead in the 9th, Jimmie Sherfy gave up a one-out single, then a two-out pinch-hit single by Ryan Wiggins to send the game into extra innings. In the 13th, Oregon got its leadoff hitter aboard on a walk, then advanced him with a sac bunt. With two outs, JJ Altobelli reached on a fielding error by 2B Joe Meggs and the unearned winning run scored. Reminiscent of the Hawaii game Jimmie Sherfy pitched 6.2 IP for the blown save and win, and the Ducks barely avoid the sweep. UW outhit U of O 10-4.
    Washington wins series 2-1.

  • Game one: Oregon State 9, Cal 2: Ben Wetzler (4-0) allowed 2 earned runs in the 1st on a walk and three singles, then shut down the Bears the rest of the way, limiting them to three hits and no runs over the next 7 innings. Ryan Gorton pitched a perfect 9th to close the deal. Cal JR LHP Justin Jones allowed 5 runs (4 earned) and 7 hits over 5.0 IP in the losing effort. Tyler Smith continues his torrid run at the plate, 3 for 4 with 2 RBIs. Cal played a sloppy game, committing 4 errors. The Beavers had 14 hits, with Conforto, Jake Rodriguez, and Max Gordon rapping two apiece.

  • Game two: Oregon State 4, Cal 1: Cal continued their fielding errors in the nightcap, committing two in the 1st that led to two unearned runs on no hits. Oregon State added a run in the 4th on Ryan Dunn’s solo homer. Cal scored an unearned run in the 5th for the final score. Dan Child (2-1) pitched 8.0 and allowed 5 hits and no earned runs for the win. After surendering a leadoff double in the 9th, he was lifted for tony Bryant, who down the three batters he faced for his fourth save. Ryan Dunn, Jake Rodriguez, and Dylan Davis all had 1 hit and 1 RBI.
    Oregon State leads series 2-0.

  • Game one: Arizona 8, Washington State 7: Like their in-state rivals, Wazzu also unleashed a big first inning a day after a big win over a favored opponent. 4 singles, 2 hit batsmen, and 2 errors. Arizona got three of their own in the bottom of the 1st, then evened the score with single runs in the 2nd and 3rd. The Cougs broke the 5-5 tie in the 5th with another unearned run, but the Cats scored three unearned runs in 7th to take an 8-6 lead. Wazzu got one back in the 8th, but that was all. Both teams finished with 11 hits and 2 errors. Robert Refsnyder was 3 for 3 with 3 RBIs for Arizona; Derek Jones was 2 for 5 with 2 RBIs for Wazzu. Cougar FR Joe Pistorese from Kalispell, Montana pitched one inning and took the loss. Stephen Manthei got the win.

  • Game two: Arizona 12, Washington State 9: Down 3-2 after four and a half, Arizona dropped a 7 on the Cougs in the bottom of the 5th, sending 12 batters to the plate. The Cougs scored 6 in the last three innings, but it was not enough. Arizona had 13 hits to Washington State’s 12.
    Arizona wins series 2-1.

  • USC and Utah played a DH yesterday because of expected rain today. Final game to be played Sunday.
    Utah leads series 2-0.
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3/17/2012 10:08:32 PM

MostUnknown
MostUnknown
Posts: 156
Brutal picks this week.
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3/17/2012 11:27:28 PM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 991
Riverduck...hate to play the "I told you so" card, but you got on my case 2 weeks ago when I noted my opinion in my picks that the Ducks were over-rated and their record and rankings was due to the ease of their schedule...well having picked them right last week (1-2) and this week (1-2) I might just be on to something, num num num crow. Another good weekend by the Beavs by the way having already wrapped up a series win on the road over the ranked Cal Bears.
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3/18/2012 12:35:36 AM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1075
Opihi,

Ah, the ole "I told you so." I, personally, never told RD that. But now? I don't have to because you said it. Except for the Civil War, Arizona and the Stanford series, Oregon is picking up right where they left off last year in conference play. Except they became non-ranked a little earlier last year. Although, to give it where it is due, credit goes to a not totally bad Washington team. Even though the 2 northern teams were THE pit of the P10 last year, but Oregon still stunk like pit juice at the end of the year. Ah well. Our little southern cousins will chase us all year long. Again.
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3/18/2012 1:29:03 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2119
OpihiMan wrote:
Riverduck...hate to play the "I told you so" card, but you got on my case 2 weeks ago when I noted my opinion in my picks that the Ducks were over-rated and their record and rankings was due to the ease of their schedule...well having picked them right last week (1-2) and this week (1-2) I might just be on to something, num num num crow. Another good weekend by the Beavs by the way having already wrapped up a series win on the road over the ranked Cal Bears.

Well, last time I checked we are still 13-5.. not too shabby considering the huskies always take us to the shed. I am just happy that when we blow saves, we actually win them in the end. So big improvement if you ask me. Also our defense left the building for the first time all year, so yeah.. 0-3 was what I was thinking as well. Hey- I picked OSU to win 3 games this week, so back off.
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3/18/2012 2:55:39 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1260
Beavers putting a licking on Cal. 13-4 in the 6th. It would be nice to finish the weekend with a sweep.

Go Beavs
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3/18/2012 4:05:50 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1075
And the P-12 pre-season projected #7 Oregon State sweeps Cal. Nice.
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3/18/2012 4:27:03 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2086
You know, I don't understand why the preseason polls always underestimate the Beavers. Granted this is one weekend. But last year they were projected to be 8th by the coaches and by experts like Sorenson, yet they were 1st up to the last weekend of play. This year, not just preseason polls, but there are people on the Rivals board still dissing OSU by placing them in or around the 8th spot, and here they are on top of the conference.

Either Pat Casey and company are excellent coaches who get more out of less than coaches like Savage, Esquer, or Lopez, or the Beavers are stealthy sandbaggers who mislead folks to lull them into a false sense of superiority then go for the jugular.
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3/18/2012 5:52:57 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1075
Pat Casey put A LOT of freshman and sophmores into the early season pitching rotation to find out who could do what. That translated into the D not looking particularly good when the opposing team bats were hitting the pitches like a batting machine. I think the opinions of the Beavs will be changed, as usual. And it does seem like this is the rule rather than the exception every year. You see talk like "Pat Casey always seems to do better that it seems they should, so this year the Beavers should land in the 7th or 8th or 9th place in the Pac-10/12" at the beginning of the year. Then the experts seem surprised when they do so much better. No figuring (or excuse) for poor "expert" analysis.

IMHO, I do think Casey and Co. are so much better at "upping" their players into a team than any other coach in the P-12 and there is no sandbagging being done.

This is some dam exciting baseball.

GO BEAVS!!!!
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3/18/2012 8:49:03 PM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 991
I don't care about the Ducks inflated record, I don't care about you winning a game after blowing a save. My beef was you calling my pick out 2 weeks ago and you saying very very very prematurely that the Ducks were the best team in the state. I know the season is still young but if you're gunna run your mouth you have to eat some humble pie too No worries, it's all in fun...your quacks will rebound.

Riverduck wrote:
OpihiMan wrote:
Riverduck...hate to play the "I told you so" card, but you got on my case 2 weeks ago when I noted my opinion in my picks that the Ducks were over-rated and their record and rankings was due to the ease of their schedule...well having picked them right last week (1-2) and this week (1-2) I might just be on to something, num num num crow. Another good weekend by the Beavs by the way having already wrapped up a series win on the road over the ranked Cal Bears.

Well, last time I checked we are still 13-5.. not too shabby considering the huskies always take us to the shed. I am just happy that when we blow saves, we actually win them in the end. So big improvement if you ask me. Also our defense left the building for the first time all year, so yeah.. 0-3 was what I was thinking as well. Hey- I picked OSU to win 3 games this week, so back off.
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3/18/2012 11:10:35 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2086
Day three

Day three saw one sweep and one incredible upset sweep narrowly avoided.
  • Game one: ASU 4, UCLA 3: UCLA got a run in the 2nd on Jeff Gelalich’s fifth homer of the season, a solo shot. ASU scored the next four, also on long balls: solos by Joey DiMichele and Abe Ruiz in the 4th and Ruiz’s second homer of the day, a two-run shot, in the 6th. UCLA closed the gap with single runs in the 8th and 9th, and had the tying run at second with one out, but they couldn’t register the key hits with RISP. Even though they outhit the Devils 13-7, they couldn’t overcome the long ball.

  • Game two: UCLA 4, ASU 2: The Bruins knocked out starter Alex Blackford in the 2nd inning, after tattooing him with three runs (two earned). The ASU pen held UCLA in check for most of the rest of the game, and the Devils managed to score two in the 4th to close to within a run. But the Bruins scored an insurance run in the 6th, and that was all they needed, as Grant Watson (5-0) limited the Devils to four hits and 2 runs (earned) over 6.0 innings, and the bullpen kept them hitless for the remaining three innings.
    UCLA wins series 2-1.

  • Oregon State 13, Cal 5: Oregon State had an impressive offensive performance today, as they swept Cal in Berkeley. Not only did they play small ball like traditional Beaver teams of old, they also showed some power hitting, rapping out 17 hits,3 of them doubles. Michael Conforto continued to show his batting prowess, going 3 for 5 with 6 RBIs. Tyler Smith also had 3 hits and 1 RBI, and Kavin Keyes broke out of his slump going 4 for 5 with 3 runs scored. The Beavers got it going in the 1st with an unearned run, then tacked on four in the 2nd on a leadoff double, single, sac fly, HBP, double, and a single. Cal scored three in the bottom frame, but OSU got that three back in the top of the 3rd with two outs. The Beavers had another big inning in the 6th, scoring four and leading Cal 13-4. Neither team scored from the 7th on. Jace Fry, still on a limited pitch count (92 today) after offseason back surgery, went 5.0 IP to earn his first collegiate win.
    Oregon State sweeps series 3-0.

  • Washington wins series 2-1.

  • Arizona wins series 2-1.

  • USC 10, Utah 5: More embarrassing than #20 Oregon narrowly avoiding a sweep at the hands of the Huskies in Seattle, USC was looking at a home sweep at the hands of the hapless Utes, and they had to fight mightily to break 4-4 and 5-5 ties against Utah, finally breaking away in the 6th to make it 7-5. The Trojans tacked on three more in the 7th to pull away. But the damage was already done...Friday. USC had 18 hits to Utah’s 9. USC’s Alex Sherrod (Marietta, GA) was 4 for 5 with 3 RBIS.
    Utah wins series 2-1.
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3/18/2012 11:21:37 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2086
Riverduck wrote:
Hey- I picked OSU to win 3 games this week, so back off.

Only one person this week picked OSU to go 3-0, and that person had top score. I had to recheck your pick to make sure I had not gotten it wrong. You did pick OSU 3-0 last week. If you had done so this week too, guess what? You would have been tied for top score. As a Beaver fan would say: Dam!

Riverduck wrote:
Ucla 2-1
Cal 3-0
Uo 3-0
AZ 2-1
USC 2-1
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3/18/2012 11:33:30 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2086
This week's scores

20.4 BeaverBeliever20
16.8 Dodger Matt
16.8 FullertonBaseballFan
15.6 cswanson2k7
15.6 Florida Beaver
15.6 OpihiMan
14.4 BeaverBob
14.4 borgguy
14.4 ConnorOSU
14.4 Islander
14.4 MostUnknown
14.4 WildCard85
13.2 ASU74
13.2 CaughtBySparky
13.2 RiverDuck

A couple things:

First, these are adjusted scores. The raw scores would have been lower, but we are forcing the data to fit into a 6-series score for every week, so every point was worth 1.2 points. That's why we have decimal scores.

Second, these are ugly low scores for sure. That's in large part due to USC tanking (lowest average score ever, I think), and to a lesser degree Oregon doing so poorly and OSU sweeping. So anyone who missed this week and joins on the second week of conference play will probably have a slight advantage going forward. (You'll be able to skip probably three weeks and still compete for the crown.)
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3/18/2012 11:50:17 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2086
Score analysis

Ugly....
  • Top average score was 3.67 for Ariz 2-1. 10/15 got that right.
  • Second was 3.20 for UCLA 2-1. (9/15 got that.) These are the only two that the voters on average picked correctly.
  • Third was OSU 3-0, average score of 2.60. Only 1/15 picked that, but 10/15 had the next best thing, OSU 2-1.
  • Another awful score was UW 2-1, average of 2.13. 2/15 got that right.
  • But the absolute worst prediction probably ever since I've been doing these was Utah 2-1, which nobody picked and had an average of 1.07.
  • Because 14/15 picked a USC sweep, if they had lost the last game, the average score would have been 0.07.
Not sure how many of you are interested in the score analysis bullets, so let me know....
edited by Dodger Matt on 3/18/2012
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3/19/2012 2:49:42 AM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1075
Way ugly. Outstanding analysis for the weekend DM. Love the openings with the head-to-head match-ups and the ending in the bullets is great. I can see exactly how poorly I sucked or (in the case of the Huskies) how great I did. Looking forward to this weekend against the 'cats who also have a real tough mid week 2 game series against a pretty good NM State in addition to traveling to Corvallis.
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3/19/2012 11:40:45 AM

Daweez04
Daweez04
Posts: 44
Should be interesting this week. Arizona has to leave their home ball park for only the THIRD time this season. They are 1-1 on the road. Here is to some chilly weather
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3/19/2012 11:50:48 AM

paintitblack
paintitblack
Posts: 15
Dodger Matt wrote:
You know, I don't understand why the preseason polls always underestimate the Beavers. Granted this is one weekend. But last year they were projected to be 8th by the coaches and by experts like Sorenson, yet they were 1st up to the last weekend of play. This year, not just preseason polls, but there are people on the Rivals board still dissing OSU by placing them in or around the 8th spot, and here they are on top of the conference.

Either Pat Casey and company are excellent coaches who get more out of less than coaches like Savage, Esquer, or Lopez, or the Beavers are stealthy sandbaggers who mislead folks to lull them into a false sense of superiority then go for the jugular.



You're right, this is only one weekend. Not counting the Rivals "experts" whose opinion and $2.00 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks, almost every pre-season poll (PAC-12 Coaches, Baseball America, USA Today, etc) had Oregon State ahead of California and in most cases around fifth in the conference behind Stanford, the Arizona schools and UCLA. A road sweep is always impressive, but there are still 27 conference games to go.
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