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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » SATURDAY: Who helped/hurt cases (5/29)

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5/28/2011 11:58:24 PM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7538
Here's our latest feature .... enjoy.

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=5737

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/29/2011 7:15:49 AM

weg313
weg313
Posts: 134
Kendall, you've yet to respond to my comment/question below. Once again, in the attached article, you argue that if the Aggies with the Big 12 tourney, they deserve a national seed...but imply Rice (who have now won both the regular season and conference tourney championships of the #5 ranked C-USA) might not have done enough to cop the final national seed. I continue to question this logic, as the Owls and Aggies have virtually the identical overall resume (virtually equivalent record, RPI, SoS, conference standings)-- with the Aggies holding the edge in record vs. Top50/100, but Rice holding the edge in record vs. Top25, road/neutral site record and head-to-head (2-0, and one of those was a Saturday night showcase game of aces). Given this, and the head-to-head (the Aggies have yet to score on the Owls in 18 innings), why in the world woulld the Selection Committee give a second national seed to the Big12 before giving one to C-USA, when the two teams under consideration are so equivalent, but one has the decisive head-to-head advantage? And for that matter, why does everyone have Texas as a lock national seed, when the Aggies and Rice have better RPIs and much superior SoS?

K, you continue to argue that A&M has the slightly better overall resume than Rice, and would consequently earn the final national seed spot if both win tomorrow, and if the Committee decides to give the state of Texas a second national seed. I continue to scratch my head on this logic. First off, I cannot see the Selection Committee doling out a second national seed to a Big 12 team instead of giving the regular season and tourney champ of the #5 ranked conference a national seed; especially since the two resumes are so similar.

Yes, the Aggies have the better record against Top 50/100 teams (with Rice having the better record against the top 25), but that is only because Kansas State is just barely inside the Top 50 and UH is just barely outside the Top 50. KSU and UH are essentially the exact same team. (Note-- KSU's W-L record is padded by scheduliing a whopping 13 games against sub-RPI 200 ranked teams, against whom they are 13-0.) Second, we have virtually the same RPI, SoS, conference record/standings and OOC record (save for the recognition that the Aggies are 7-0 against teams ranked below RPI 200; whereas Rice has yet to play a single game against a sub-RPI 200 opponent. However, Rice blows the Aggies away in road record (13-5 vs. 10-8) and road/neutral site record (18-9 vs.13-10)...and then there's our 2-0 record in head-to-head. So, I ask again, should both the Aggies and Owls win tomorrow night, and one of the two get a national seed, I just cannot see any way they give it to the Aggies (and a second Big 12 team) over the Owls; especially since their resumes are so similar and Rice has a 2-0 edge in head-to-head.

--
In Wayne Graham we trust.
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5/29/2011 9:49:12 AM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7538
weg313 wrote:
Kendall, you've yet to respond to my comment/question below. Once again, in the attached article, you argue that if the Aggies with the Big 12 tourney, they deserve a national seed...but imply Rice (who have now won both the regular season and conference tourney championships of the #5 ranked C-USA) might not have done enough to cop the final national seed. I continue to question this logic, as the Owls and Aggies have virtually the identical overall resume (virtually equivalent record, RPI, SoS, conference standings)-- with the Aggies holding the edge in record vs. Top50/100, but Rice holding the edge in record vs. Top25, road/neutral site record and head-to-head (2-0, and one of those was a Saturday night showcase game of aces). Given this, and the head-to-head (the Aggies have yet to score on the Owls in 18 innings), why in the world woulld the Selection Committee give a second national seed to the Big12 before giving one to C-USA, when the two teams under consideration are so equivalent, but one has the decisive head-to-head advantage? And for that matter, why does everyone have Texas as a lock national seed, when the Aggies and Rice have better RPIs and much superior SoS?

K, you continue to argue that A&M has the slightly better overall resume than Rice, and would consequently earn the final national seed spot if both win tomorrow, and if the Committee decides to give the state of Texas a second national seed. I continue to scratch my head on this logic. First off, I cannot see the Selection Committee doling out a second national seed to a Big 12 team instead of giving the regular season and tourney champ of the #5 ranked conference a national seed; especially since the two resumes are so similar.

Yes, the Aggies have the better record against Top 50/100 teams (with Rice having the better record against the top 25), but that is only because Kansas State is just barely inside the Top 50 and UH is just barely outside the Top 50. KSU and UH are essentially the exact same team. (Note-- KSU's W-L record is padded by scheduliing a whopping 13 games against sub-RPI 200 ranked teams, against whom they are 13-0.) Second, we have virtually the same RPI, SoS, conference record/standings and OOC record (save for the recognition that the Aggies are 7-0 against teams ranked below RPI 200; whereas Rice has yet to play a single game against a sub-RPI 200 opponent. However, Rice blows the Aggies away in road record (13-5 vs. 10-8) and road/neutral site record (18-9 vs.13-10)...and then there's our 2-0 record in head-to-head. So, I ask again, should both the Aggies and Owls win tomorrow night, and one of the two get a national seed, I just cannot see any way they give it to the Aggies (and a second Big 12 team) over the Owls; especially since their resumes are so similar and Rice has a 2-0 edge in head-to-head.


Walt,
I haven't seen your question on this board. I've been a tad bit busy this week, so sorry about that.

Anyway, let's break this down. And I've never said A&M has a clear advantage. Just said I would give a slight edge. For starters, remember something, Big 12 associate commish Tim Weiser is the committee chairman. Remember a couple of years ago when Oklahoma got a national seed when all of us (including myself) were scratching our heads as to how in the world the Sooners got a national seed? Yeah, exactly. I'm not going to say Weiser will once again flex his muscles with the Aggies, but I'd be surprised if he didn't IF A&M wins the Big 12 tourney. In that scenario, you'd have a team that essentially is even with Texas (one team won the reg season, one team won the tourney and both won the regular season title), plus the two are very similar in the RPI. With Weiser on the staff, I don't see them snubbing one of the Big 12 teams when the two have identical bullet points in their direction. The good news for Rice fans is that Gary Overton, the former East Carolina AD is on the committee, so that might help even things out.

As for the two teams, let's break the two down right now. And as Ive stated all along, I have no problem with either Rice or A&M getting a national seed. Both teams deserve it, and one team doesn't deserve it over the other IMO. The big key here is I think if A&M is a national seed, TCU goes to College Station and Rice goes to Texas for obvious reasons (Rice and UT have a spat, the two haven't played this season).

Rice: 9-6 vs. RPI Top 25, 13-9 vs. RPI Top 50, 29-17 vs. RPI Top 100
SOS: 14, RPI: 11, Road record: 13-5, Head-to-head: 2-0

Texas A&M: 6-6 vs. RPI Top 25, 20-10 vs. RPI Top 50, 32-17 vs. RPI Top 100
SOS: 11, RPI: 9, Road record: 10-8, Head-to-head: 0-2

So, under those criteria:

RPI TOP 25: Solid advantage Rice
RPI TOP 50: Huge advantage A&M
RPI TOP 100: Slight advantage A&M
SOS: Slight advantage A&M
RPI: Slight advantage A&M
Road record: Slight advantage Rice
Head-to-head: Decisive advantage Rice

So, out of all the criteria that would matter, A&M bests Rice, and was the co-champion in a better conference. Still, I wouldn't have an issue at all with the Owls getting one over the Aggies.

The big caveat here is Texas. The Longhorns still have a solid resume, but consider the fact the UT has a SOS of 43, which is significantly lower than Rice and A&M. Could the committee decide to send UT on the road for a national seed in response to a weaker than usual SOS? It's an option.

Going further:

Texas: 6-3 vs. RPI Top 25, 16-7 vs. RPI Top 50, 30-13 vs. RPI Top 100
SOS: 43, RPI: 12, Road record: 10-6, Head-to-head: 2-1 vs. A&M, 0-0 vs. Rice

In these cases, my order:

1. Texas
2. Texas A&M
3. Rice

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/29/2011 1:18:57 PM

weg313
weg313
Posts: 134
K, stop saying RPI, SoS and overall record are slight advantages to the Aggies; in reality, they are virtually identical. As for the "huge" edge the Aggies have in record against Top 50, that entire edge is due to the fact that KSU happens to fall just inside the Top 50 and UH falls just outside the Top 50...when, in reality, the two have similar resumes (with KSU's vastly superior W-L record due to their scheduling a whopping 13 games against sub-RPI 200 teams). And, again, you totally dismiss the issue of giving the Big12 a second national seed before giving C-USA one, despite C-USA having 4 teams in the Top 27 (more than the Big 12). Given the identical resumes, you would think head-to-head comes into play. No? BTW, road record is not "slight advantage" to Rice; it's a humongous edge for Rice (13-5 vs. 10-8).

--
In Wayne Graham we trust.
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5/29/2011 2:06:36 PM

weg313
weg313
Posts: 134
BTW, Kendall-- thanks for taking the time to prepare the analysis and breakdown. Much appreciated!

--
In Wayne Graham we trust.
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