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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » PG 64: Latest NCAA Projections (HAVE Q'S?) -- 5/24

Want to make your opinion heard or just chat about college baseball? This is your place.
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5/24/2011 11:46:04 PM

GT_Matt
GT_Matt
Posts: 3
Kendall, first time poster, thanks for what you do!

Under the following scenario, who gets the final 2 national seeds?

1)Georgia Tech advances to play Sunday for the ACC Title but loses
2) Rice advances to play USM for the C-USA Title but loses
3) Oregon State sweeps Oregon to move back up in the RPI
4) Arizona State takes two of 3 from UCLA
5) Texas A&M wins the Big 12 Title

Also, when in the heck will college baseball start seeding 1-16 and be fair and not just regionally pairing the Super matchups? NCAA Baseball is big enough now for this to be an excellent and by my estimation a way to continue growing the sport nationally, rather than just worrying about weekend turnout!
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5/25/2011 7:57:38 AM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 218
Dodger Matt wrote:
Stats below, sorted by record versus top 100 RPI, are grabbed from Nolan’s Nitty Gritty Report, and since half the work was already done, I stuck with his Rat’s Patooties. Using Kendall’s “versus top 25, versus top 50, versus top 100” breakdown, the Beavers currently have the seventh-best record against top 100 RPI teams. And the BEST versus top 25 and top 50.

RPI Team Div I OOC SOS 1 – 25..... 1 – 50..... 1 – 100....
4 Vanderbilt 44-9 22-1 32 11-7 0.611 19-8 0.704 23-8 0.742
2 Virginia 45-9 23-1 26 9-6 0.600 15-8 0.652 21-8 0.724
1 North Carolina 44-12 24-2 3 11-5 0.688 15-8 0.652 31-12 0.721
9 Arizona State 38-14 22-6 27 3-4 0.429 14-7 0.667 25-10 0.714
11 Texas 40-13 21-5 45 4-2 0.667 16-7 0.696 27-11 0.711
6 South Carolina 44-12 22-4 31 12-6 0.667 18-9 0.667 24-10 0.706
21 Oregon State 38-14 21-7 75 6-0 1.000 13-5 0.722 23-11 0.676
3 Florida 41-15 19-7 2 15-12 0.556 22-13 0.629 29-14 0.674
14 CS Fullerton 37-14 20-10 44 3-7 0.300 6-8 0.429 18-9 0.667
15 Southern Miss 38-15 22-7 48 4-4 0.500 11-8 0.579 26-14 0.650
19 Stetson 40-16 17-9 59 4-3 0.571 8-6 0.571 16-9 0.640
5 Florida State 39-15 20-4 4 12-11 0.522 17-12 0.586 24-14 0.632
13 Arkansas 36-18 21-3 21 10-8 0.556 15-13 0.536 22-13 0.629
12 Rice 38-18 22-10 15 5-3 0.625 12-9 0.571 28-17 0.622
10 Texas A&M 38-18 19-10 10 4-6 0.400 16-10 0.615 28-17 0.622
7 Georgia Tech 39-17 17-9 7 9-6 0.600 12-7 0.632 24-15 0.615
8 Clemson 39-17 22-4 8 7-10 0.412 12-12 0.500 20-14 0.588
17 Oklahoma 38-15 24-4 55 3-6 0.333 12-12 0.500 18-14 0.563
16 Miami 33-20 14-10 14 5-11 0.313 9-13 0.409 17-15 0.531
18 UCF 36-20 24-8 28 6-7 0.462 10-11 0.476 19-17 0.528
20 LSU 36-20 23-3 30 6-12 0.333 12-17 0.414 18-18 0.500

As for getting some help this weekend, I don’t see how we get any of that, the way the Rat’s Patootie is skewed. So I’m resigned to just being a #1 seed and (hopefully) traveling to a super.

Oregon State: #9 ISR, #7 Massey, #1 record versus top 25 and top 50 RPI, and soon-to-be Pac-10 champs, but still not worthy of a national seed. So, as stupid as it sounds, that sounds about right to me.

To get the "coded" table to fit correctly, this post was repeatedly...

edited by Dodger Matt on 5/24/2011


This is typcial of someone who can only view statistics in a way that is most favorable to his team. Example: Florida has played more games against teams in the top 25 than Oregon State has played against the top 100, but he somehow has Oregon State ahead of Florida.

One would think that it would be a hint when the west-coast-heavy ISR doesn't even have Oregon State in the top 8 (you know, the number of national seeds). If you want to be a national seed, don't schedule Hartford, and don't lose three of your last four conference games to bad teams.
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5/25/2011 10:28:07 AM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7536
BeaverBob wrote:
Kendall wrote:
BeaverBob wrote:
Kendall, it's interesting that you have ASU as the number 8 seed ahead of Oregon State. The Beavers swept ASU, are currently ahead of ASU in your own poll: 8 to 13, and are close to being crowned the Pac 10 champs.
Is your decision soley based on RPI?


Has nothing to do with me thinking Arizona State is a better team. I think Oregon State clearly is better. However, the NCAA is not going to give a team with an RPI of 27 a national seed, as stupid as it sounds. Not going to happen. Oregon State needs to take care of Oregon this weekend and hope the rest of it takes care of itself.


Kendall, I love your honest explanation. Can I assume that your Field of 64 are not what you think "should be", but what you think "will be?"


You just drove the nail through the wall on that one, Bob. Nice job.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/25/2011 1:01:26 PM

Eater Nation
Eater Nation
Posts: 3
Wow, if UCLA and CSUF are paired again that will make for quite a pitching showcase. Neither one of those teams can hit, but their 1-4 pitchers are probably best in nation. CSUF probably hits a tiny bit better, but UCLA has fielding edge.

--
Rip 'em Eaters!
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5/25/2011 1:10:24 PM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7536
GT_Matt wrote:
Kendall, first time poster, thanks for what you do!

Under the following scenario, who gets the final 2 national seeds?

1)Georgia Tech advances to play Sunday for the ACC Title but loses
2) Rice advances to play USM for the C-USA Title but loses
3) Oregon State sweeps Oregon to move back up in the RPI
4) Arizona State takes two of 3 from UCLA
5) Texas A&M wins the Big 12 Title

Also, when in the heck will college baseball start seeding 1-16 and be fair and not just regionally pairing the Super matchups? NCAA Baseball is big enough now for this to be an excellent and by my estimation a way to continue growing the sport nationally, rather than just worrying about weekend turnout!


I'd say Rice and Oregon State/Arizona State in that crop of scenarios (brain teaser, BTW!). As for the 1-16, I think we'd all like to see it but until college baseball gets much bigger, it'll stay that way, IMO.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/25/2011 6:34:45 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
LHS-Stalker wrote:
This is typcial of someone who can only view statistics in a way that is most favorable to his team. Example: Florida has played more games against teams in the top 25 than Oregon State has played against the top 100, but he somehow has Oregon State ahead of Florida.

"He somehow has Oregon State ahead of Florida"? Look in the first sentence of my post, genius. That's how the data is sorted.

And your arrogance must have temporarily tweaked your arithmetic skills. Florida is 15-12 vs RPI top 25; that's 27 games. OSU is 23-11 vs RPI top 100; that's 34 games. Not that this point is very relevant, but you brought it up.

BTW, I'm not pimping the Rat's Patootie; I'm just trying to use this inferior tool the way many patootie-kissers do. If I sort by record against RPI 25, 50, or 100. OSU ends up in the top eight. Should I try to please you and show the data some other way? Your narcissism is typical of someone who only views other people's opinions as a vehicle to prove your alleged superiority.
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5/25/2011 7:14:03 PM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 218
Dodger Matt wrote:
LHS-Stalker wrote:
This is typcial of someone who can only view statistics in a way that is most favorable to his team. Example: Florida has played more games against teams in the top 25 than Oregon State has played against the top 100, but he somehow has Oregon State ahead of Florida.

"He somehow has Oregon State ahead of Florida"? Look in the first sentence of my post, genius. That's how the data is sorted.

And your arrogance must have temporarily tweaked your arithmetic skills. Florida is 15-12 vs RPI top 25; that's 27 games. OSU is 23-11 vs RPI top 100; that's 34 games. Not that this point is very relevant, but you brought it up.

BTW, I'm not pimping the Rat's Patootie; I'm just trying to use this inferior tool the way many patootie-kissers do. If I sort by record against RPI 25, 50, or 100. OSU ends up in the top eight. Should I try to please you and show the data some other way? Your narcissism is typical of someone who only views other people's opinions as a vehicle to prove your alleged superiority.


You are correct. I inadvertently looked under the 1-50 column. My mistake.

No, I don't want you to try to please me. I want you to become a smarter college baseball fan. It becomes tiresome when the same people make the same mistakes every year when trying to analyze this stuff. We get it, you hate the RPI. No one thinks it's perfect, and no one is a "patootie-kisser". But it is what the committe uses, so we use it.

And you can think that you are looking at the records the way the committee is, but I promise you that 15-12 and 12-6 against the top 25 carries more weight than 6-0 does. Just going by winning percentage is a mistake. Playing literally half your schedule against the top 25 is 10x more impressive than fitting in two series. And I'm guessing that you are praying that Fresno State and Arizona don't sneak into the top 25 this week.
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5/25/2011 7:21:19 PM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 218
Oh, and the stalker thing was pretty mature. I rip your posts up one side and down the other, but I haven't gone that route. If I wanted to be like you, I would just remind you that you are the guy who didn't know how signals were sent in from the bench to the catcher. Oh, to have an archive on that site.
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5/25/2011 8:15:41 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
MiamiBaseball wrote:
If I wanted to be like you, I would just remind you that you are the guy who didn't know how signals were sent in from the bench to the catcher.

Yes, and I suppose you would never stoop to making negative comments about the lousy officiating. Sorry, your self-importance is Obamaesque. Please continue in your self-appointed duty to rid the world of incorrect thinking, and continue to never employ apophasis or other rhetorical devices to show how much above the fray you are.
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