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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » PG 64: Latest NCAA Projections (HAVE Q'S?) -- 5/12

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5/13/2011 6:19:27 AM

bsbjunkie
bsbjunkie
Posts: 4
I don't get your love for Baylor. You talk about needing a big series win with these little mid majors but where is Baylor's. They have lost every BigXII series except Nebraska and KState. They are 10-11 against top 50 and 15-19 against top 100. Baylor is barely a .500 team and they aren't even one of your last teams in. I just don't get your love for them.
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5/13/2011 6:33:45 AM

It's The Talons
It's The Talons
Posts: 50
OpihiMan wrote:
It's The Talons wrote:
shoelessT wrote:
A troll? Ha nice try. I am just wondering why Southern Miss fans freak out over little stuff like that.



I wouldn't call it "freaking out" but if we are in the mix for a national seed why would we be matched up with the overall #1. A match up with UNC or Vanderbilt would make more sense geographically.


The NCAA does not recognize 9-16 teams...past the top 8 national seeds the number 9 is the same as number 16.

Another thing that goes into consideration is avoiding pairing up regional hosts from the same conference in the supers...meaning FSU and GT wouldn't be sent to Virginia for supers. Fullerton wouldn't be sent to Virg. due to geographical, Stetson is a no brainer for Florida...as is Texas-Rice (or TCU instead of Rice...doesn't matter either way).
That only leaves A&M and TCU (I doubt the committee would send a Texas team North...but those would be the only 2, based on Kendall's projections, that would go to Virginia)

In my opinion this seems to be the most complete projections to date...I wouldn't (or couldn't justify) make any changes.


Very nicely done Kendall.
edited by OpihiMan on 5/12/2011



I'm curious and also ignorant on the subject, why don't they recognize 9-16 seeds? If they don't recognize 9-16 do they not seed 17-64 according to some sort of ranking formula?
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5/13/2011 6:59:21 AM

hogfan4life
hogfan4life
Posts: 305
Yeah, last year I remember Arkansas was one of the better 1 seeds (9-16) and we got shipped out to #1 overall Arizona State. That's just part of it. This is the first projections that has had the Hogs in the Southern Miss region. I know we would bringa lot of fans to Hattiesburg! Hopefully we will have our own host though!
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5/13/2011 7:06:56 AM

hogfan4life
hogfan4life
Posts: 305
And Southern Miss fans, if the script was reverse and this was the Fayetteville region, I would be more worried about having likely the best 2 seed in the tournament in your region. Arkansas is still in the mix for a regional host and we are th 2 seed in your region. As I said if I was being talked about for a national seed and then got stuck with a 2 seed in the mix for a regional host. That's what I would be worried about not who I would play in Supers! Anyways, you would have to beat Virginia at some point anyways, why not knock them out before you get to Omaha.
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5/13/2011 8:55:59 AM

EaglehasLanded
EaglehasLanded
Posts: 43
Hogfan, you are right in that sense too. The past few weeks we have been stuck with the #1 national seed for a Super-Regional pairing and have had 2 of the best #2 seeds, Clemson and Arkansas, placed in our regional.
I don't think we (Southern Miss) fans are "freaking out" as much as we feel a bit disrespected, but that has been the case most of the year with the ranking also.
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5/13/2011 9:32:19 AM

FullertonBaseballFan
FullertonBaseballFan
Posts: 146
"I'm curious and also ignorant on the subject, why don't they recognize 9-16 seeds? If they don't recognize 9-16 do they not seed 17-64 according to some sort of ranking formula?"


The NCAA selection committee chooses to keep the baseball tournament as regionalized as possible. Obviously, in some instances, it is unavoidable but they want as little travel as possible. That's why the NCAA doesn't seed 9-16 (only assigning them 1 seeds in their regionals) and don't seed 17-32 (only giving them 2's), 33-48 (only giving them 3's) or 49-64 (only giving them 4's).

Fullerton has played UCLA in three of the last four years (and it wouldn't be much of a surprise if they played again this year) and before that ASU in four out of five years from '01-'05. Same thing goes for the TX schools like Texas-TCU in '09-'10 supers and Rice-A&M in '07-'08 supers, the FSU-UF-Miami triumverate in FL, etc.

Some schools have to travel due being geographically isolated, like Hawaii (duh) or Oregon State (when they aren't hosting). Everybody else is much more likely to play in a regional in their own area unless there isn't enough room (like LSU last year going to UCLA) and regional hosts are much more likely to be paired up with other regional hosts in their geographic area.
edited by FullertonBaseballFan on 5/13/2011
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5/13/2011 11:05:26 AM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7538
KillerEagle wrote:
Looking at UNC as the 8 national seed and their remaining schedule, do you think they could be in potential trouble? They have 3 games @ GT and 3 games vs Virginia. If they lost those 2 series their record vs Top 50 RPI teams would go from 11-6 to 13-10 (or even 12-11 if they lost 2 at GT and Virginia swept).

In addition, for the season UNC has lost 3 series already. Wake Forest, NSCT, and Miami. If they dropped 2 more series how do make a national seed out of a team that lost 5 out of 12 series?


Don't see North Carolina, at all, being a national seed if it loses its last two series, no matter how well it does in the upcoming ACC tournament.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/13/2011 11:06:14 AM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7538
MoreCowbell23 wrote:
I see that you have Mississippi State as a 2 seed while every other projection I've seen has us as 3 seed. While I'd love to be a 2, what is your logic for having us there? And what would it take for MSU to be a lock as a 2 seed? 2/3 from UM and LSU and then not going 0-2 in Hoover?


Taking the series against Ole Miss this weekend and also taking care of business at home against LSU next weekend would probably lock State into a No. 2 seed ... at least in my eyes.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/13/2011 11:09:03 AM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7538
bsbjunkie wrote:
I don't get your love for Baylor. You talk about needing a big series win with these little mid majors but where is Baylor's. They have lost every BigXII series except Nebraska and KState. They are 10-11 against top 50 and 15-19 against top 100. Baylor is barely a .500 team and they aren't even one of your last teams in. I just don't get your love for them.


RPI, SOS and # of wins vs. RPI Top 50 and RPI Top 100 is what is holding up Baylor right now. Baylor is a perfect example of how weak the Field of 64 is so far this season. It would be on the extreme bubble in most years, and likely on the bad side of it. With that said, BU could be in trouble. I think it loses that series at Oklahoma State this weekend, thus further complicating its situation.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/13/2011 12:48:58 PM

EaglehasLanded
EaglehasLanded
Posts: 43
What about these Super Pairings:
UVA - Stetson
Vandy - Texas A&M
Arizona St. - TCU
Florida - Florida St.
Rice - Texas
South Carolina - Georgia Tech
North Carolina - Southern Miss
Oregon St. - Cal St.- Fullerton

Kendall, I know you said the NCAA wouldn't pair UF and FSU, but I don't see the difference in that and Rice and Texas being paired together. If we are being impartial and paring based on geography this makes as much sense as any other pairings.
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5/13/2011 2:23:45 PM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 1111
Again Florida - Florida State will attempt to be avoided and Stetson won't be sent to Virginia...especially with a natural host in Florida right there. Sorry but Kendall's pairings just make sense, easiest way for Southern to avoid possibly playing Virginia is clinching a national seed...don't get ahead of yourselves either, remember you have to win your regional.
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5/13/2011 7:06:22 PM

hogfan4life
hogfan4life
Posts: 305
It could also still change with changes in host. Kendall could you give us a scenario where say Stetson doesn't get a host and say maybe Arkansas does, or anybody else does that is close to being a host. How would that, if at all, change the matches? What about Clemson? Could they possibly host and throw everything for a loop? I would be interested to hear what you think?
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5/14/2011 7:12:19 AM

EaglehasLanded
EaglehasLanded
Posts: 43
OpihiMan wrote:
Again Florida - Florida State will attempt to be avoided and Stetson won't be sent to Virginia...especially with a natural host in Florida right there. Sorry but Kendall's pairings just make sense, easiest way for Southern to avoid possibly playing Virginia is clinching a national seed...don't get ahead of yourselves either, remember you have to win your regional.


Trust me, I'm not taking anything for granted. This is all just for fun. Although I don't understand why FSU and UF should be given preferential treatment. But, I also think FSU will end up as a national seed, so it won't matter.
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5/14/2011 7:15:10 AM

EaglehasLanded
EaglehasLanded
Posts: 43
hogfan4life wrote:
It could also still change with changes in host. Kendall could you give us a scenario where say Stetson doesn't get a host and say maybe Arkansas does, or anybody else does that is close to being a host. How would that, if at all, change the matches? What about Clemson? Could they possibly host and throw everything for a loop? I would be interested to hear what you think?


Hogfan, the way things are going now, I don't think we are going to have worry about y'all in our regional. It looks like you will get one of your own, especially if you take the series from South Carolina this weekend.
Also, at the 2009 CWS we had some Arkansas fans sitting behind us when we played Texas and they were cheering hard for the Golden Eagles. They were almost as disappointed as we were when our pitching staff decided to walk in the winning run. But a good time was had by all!
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5/14/2011 10:55:05 AM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7538
EaglehasLanded wrote:
What about these Super Pairings:
UVA - Stetson
Vandy - Texas A&M
Arizona St. - TCU
Florida - Florida St.
Rice - Texas
South Carolina - Georgia Tech
North Carolina - Southern Miss
Oregon St. - Cal St.- Fullerton

Kendall, I know you said the NCAA wouldn't pair UF and FSU, but I don't see the difference in that and Rice and Texas being paired together. If we are being impartial and paring based on geography this makes as much sense as any other pairings.


Actually, it's vastly different. Florida and Florida State have played several times this season. Rice and Texas HAVE NOT played this season. That's a big, big difference.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/14/2011 10:56:10 AM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7538
hogfan4life wrote:
It could also still change with changes in host. Kendall could you give us a scenario where say Stetson doesn't get a host and say maybe Arkansas does, or anybody else does that is close to being a host. How would that, if at all, change the matches? What about Clemson? Could they possibly host and throw everything for a loop? I would be interested to hear what you think?


I think someone like Arkansas takes over if Stetson slips up, which is entirely possible. Don't think Clemson has the resume to sneak in there this late in the game. The Tigers would need to get a lot of help. I could see Miami perhaps moving in there if it wins another game this weekend, wins its final weekend series and plays well in the ACC tournament.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/14/2011 1:43:23 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Kendall....

Seconding the borg's comments and augmenting with a similar query vis-a-vis the WAC teams. You have both Fresno State and Hawaii with autobid asterisks after their names. I assume you expect Hawaii to win the autobid and Fresno to get an atlarge? And would the committee be so cruel as to pair the only two teams from a conference like that? I can understand doing it to the Pac-10...happens all the time. But the WAC? I don't see Rice paired with ECU or Fullerton with Irvine.
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