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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » PG 64: Latest NCAA Projections (HAVE Q'S?) -- 5/12

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5/12/2011 1:26:50 AM

Kendall
Kendall
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Posts: 7495
Here's our latest projections .... let the questions flow and I'll get to them later this morning. Thanks!

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=5628

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/12/2011 5:13:05 AM

NolesFanJosh
NolesFanJosh
Posts: 127
So the winner of UNC/Ga Tech this weekend will further have 'inside track' on FSU for National Seed? Would a potential matchup between that winner and FSU in ACC Tournament (presuming FSU wins Atlantic and winner of GT/UNC series finishes 3rd in ACC overall) have any bearing come Seeding time?
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5/12/2011 6:44:53 AM

GTbaseball
GTbaseball
Posts: 103
Explain to me how a team like UGA has a #2 seed. It makes absolutely NO sense at all. I just dont buy the whole "schedule" thing. They are barely over .500.

You can play all the good teams you want, but if you lose to all of them, its still a LOSS.

What say ye?
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5/12/2011 8:18:31 AM

EaglehasLanded
EaglehasLanded
Posts: 43
GTbaseball wrote:
Explain to me how a team like UGA has a #2 seed. It makes absolutely NO sense at all. I just dont buy the whole "schedule" thing. They are barely over .500.

You can play all the good teams you want, but if you lose to all of them, its still a LOSS.

What say ye?


I agree. Playing a bunch of good teams is one thing, beating them is another. I don't think we should reward people for making a hard schedule and then barely getting above .500. I'm not saying they shouldn't be in the tournament at this point, but they should be a 3 seed based on the mere fact that another loss would knock them out of contention for a regional bid.
edited by EaglehasLanded on 5/12/2011
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5/12/2011 8:28:03 AM

EaglehasLanded
EaglehasLanded
Posts: 43
Kendall, A few questionis:
1) Why is Southern Miss paired with UVA?
2) Some interesting movement last night in the rpi, Texas is now only 4-2 vs. Top 25 and Southern Miss is now 3-0 vs. Top 25 (3-2 according to Warren Nolan). I realize this will change over the next 2 weeks with Texas playing Texas A&M and Southern Miss playing Rice.
Also Texas has OSU sitting right outside the Top 25 (but they went 1-2 in that series) and Southern Mis has East Carolina and Bama sitting around 30 right now (in which we went 3-2 against; even with the MSU and LSU losses that would be 6-4).
Would those updates have changed your national seeds? Also, after looking at the rpi breakdown, it would seem Florida St. has a better resume than Texas.
3) Do you think Oregon St. will maintain a National Seed even if they lose a game or 2 over the next 2 weeks, which according to Boyd's RPI Needs report would drop them out of the Top 16 rpi?
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5/12/2011 8:53:30 AM

eagleboy415
eagleboy415
Posts: 61
Why is Southern Miss paired with the #1 seed in almost every projection? Why can't we be paired with a higher national seed like the 7 seed if we're supposedly "in the mix" for a national seed ourselves?
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5/12/2011 9:40:24 AM

shoelessT
shoelessT
Posts: 118
Southern Miss matched up with Virginia makes sense for Supers. Why do Southern Miss fans freak out over everything on the board?

Kendall, do you think Gainesville and Deland regionals are pretty obvious to be paired with one another?
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5/12/2011 9:42:27 AM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 547
have one like and one dislike, i like that we get Fresno state in our regional a chance to show that the two losses in the beginnning of the season were flukes

the thing i dont like and this is more the NCAA than it is you guys is that even though 6 pac 10 teams woudl be in the tourney no more than 3 would be able to reach the CWS due to the super regional matchups
oregon st could potentially play UCLA and arizona state could potentially play stanford, the only one who doesnt have a pac10 team in the coresponding super regional is CAL

--
GO BEAVS!
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5/12/2011 9:51:24 AM

Kendall
Kendall
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Posts: 7495
NolesFanJosh wrote:
So the winner of UNC/Ga Tech this weekend will further have 'inside track' on FSU for National Seed? Would a potential matchup between that winner and FSU in ACC Tournament (presuming FSU wins Atlantic and winner of GT/UNC series finishes 3rd in ACC overall) have any bearing come Seeding time?


Florida State playing exceptionally well in the ACC tournament definitely can have a bearing, but it doesn't quite have the resume of the Tar Heels and Yellow Jackets, and it lost a head-to-head home series against North Carolina at home. If Florida State had the better resume it might not matter as much. FSU is very much within striking distance, just needs to finish strong and let the chips fall where they may.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/12/2011 9:53:14 AM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7495
GTbaseball wrote:
Explain to me how a team like UGA has a #2 seed. It makes absolutely NO sense at all. I just dont buy the whole "schedule" thing. They are barely over .500.

You can play all the good teams you want, but if you lose to all of them, its still a LOSS.

What say ye?


Georgia still has one of the better records in the top power conference, has played the 1 or 2 toughest schedule in the country, and has an incredibly high RPI. As long as the Bulldogs stay a couple of games above .500, they'll be in the field, and probably as a No. 2 seed. It's strange to be in a situation where you're probably either a No. 2 seed or not in the field at all. But that's the situation Perno's club is in right now.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/12/2011 9:54:47 AM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7495
borgguy wrote:
have one like and one dislike, i like that we get Fresno state in our regional a chance to show that the two losses in the beginnning of the season were flukes

the thing i dont like and this is more the NCAA than it is you guys is that even though 6 pac 10 teams woudl be in the tourney no more than 3 would be able to reach the CWS due to the super regional matchups
oregon st could potentially play UCLA and arizona state could potentially play stanford, the only one who doesnt have a pac10 team in the coresponding super regional is CAL


Yeah, I'm not a fan of doing that with my pairings, but the NCAA loves "regionalizing" the West Coast and other areas, so don't be surprised if that's the reality of the situation here in a month.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/12/2011 9:56:14 AM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7495
eagleboy415 wrote:
Why is Southern Miss paired with the #1 seed in almost every projection? Why can't we be paired with a higher national seed like the 7 seed if we're supposedly "in the mix" for a national seed ourselves?


Just the way the chips fall. The NCAA isn't going to send Stetson on a plane to Virginia when it can send the Hatters an hour up the road for an NCAA Super Regional. Also, the NCAA is not going to pair up Florida and Florida State in an NCAA Super Regional ...... Virginia is the most logical place for USM right now. I could also see A&M going to UVA and USM going to North Carolina.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/12/2011 10:02:41 AM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7495
EaglehasLanded wrote:
Kendall, A few questionis:
1) Why is Southern Miss paired with UVA? Just the way the pairings fall. You could send the Eagles to Chapel Hill as well, but Stetson is going to be paired with Florida barring a huge surprise. An hour away as opposed to the NCAA paying to put them on a plan to Virginia or anywhere else.
2) Some interesting movement last night in the rpi, Texas is now only 4-2 vs. Top 25 and Southern Miss is now 3-0 vs. Top 25 (3-2 according to Warren Nolan). I realize this will change over the next 2 weeks with Texas playing Texas A&M and Southern Miss playing Rice. Will be an interesting finish. I said this the other day, but USM definitely still has a legitimate shot to earn a national seed. The fight will be the Big 12 vs. C-USA and who has more clout with this year's selection committee.
Also Texas has OSU sitting right outside the Top 25 (but they went 1-2 in that series) and Southern Mis has East Carolina and Bama sitting around 30 right now (in which we went 3-2 against; even with the MSU and LSU losses that would be 6-4).
Would those updates have changed your national seeds? Also, after looking at the rpi breakdown, it would seem Florida St. has a better resume than Texas. I don't think FSU does. My #'s so UT at 5-4 vs. RPI Top 25 and FSU at 10-8 vs. RPI Top 25 (advantage FSU), Texas 14-6 vs. RPI Top 50 and FSU at 14-9 vs. RPI Top 50 (advantage UT) and Texas at 28-11 vs. RPI Top 100 and FSU at 23-12 in RPI Top 100 (advantage UT). FSU does have a higher RPI. However, the Big 12 is getting a national seed if it has a team within striking distance over a third ACC team.
3) Do you think Oregon St. will maintain a National Seed even if they lose a game or 2 over the next 2 weeks, which according to Boyd's RPI Needs report would drop them out of the Top 16 rpi?
Only way I think Oregon State is in trouble is if it loses one of those series. Let's say they sweep USC at home, and then take two of three from Washington and Oregon on the road. Don't care what the RPI is, that's a very very deserving national seed. OSU has an easy national seed resume right now, IMO.


Good questions!


--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/12/2011 11:41:47 AM

KillerEagle
KillerEagle
Posts: 1
Looking at UNC as the 8 national seed and their remaining schedule, do you think they could be in potential trouble? They have 3 games @ GT and 3 games vs Virginia. If they lost those 2 series their record vs Top 50 RPI teams would go from 11-6 to 13-10 (or even 12-11 if they lost 2 at GT and Virginia swept).

In addition, for the season UNC has lost 3 series already. Wake Forest, NSCT, and Miami. If they dropped 2 more series how do make a national seed out of a team that lost 5 out of 12 series?
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5/12/2011 11:48:54 AM

EaglehasLanded
EaglehasLanded
Posts: 43
shoelessT wrote:
Southern Miss matched up with Virginia makes sense for Supers. Why do Southern Miss fans freak out over everything on the board?

Kendall, do you think Gainesville and Deland regionals are pretty obvious to be paired with one another?


Why do you have to be such a troll?
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5/12/2011 12:29:08 PM

shoelessT
shoelessT
Posts: 118
A troll? Ha nice try. I am just wondering why Southern Miss fans freak out over little stuff like that.
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5/12/2011 1:23:08 PM

MoreCowbell23
MoreCowbell23
Posts: 19
I see that you have Mississippi State as a 2 seed while every other projection I've seen has us as 3 seed. While I'd love to be a 2, what is your logic for having us there? And what would it take for MSU to be a lock as a 2 seed? 2/3 from UM and LSU and then not going 0-2 in Hoover?
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5/12/2011 3:31:21 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2098
Kendall wrote:
borgguy wrote:
have one like and one dislike, i like that we get Fresno state in our regional a chance to show that the two losses in the beginnning of the season were flukes

the thing i dont like and this is more the NCAA than it is you guys is that even though 6 pac 10 teams woudl be in the tourney no more than 3 would be able to reach the CWS due to the super regional matchups
oregon st could potentially play UCLA and arizona state could potentially play stanford, the only one who doesnt have a pac10 team in the coresponding super regional is CAL


Yeah, I'm not a fan of doing that with my pairings, but the NCAA loves "regionalizing" the West Coast and other areas, so don't be surprised if that's the reality of the situation here in a month.


Seconding the borg's comments and augmenting with a similar query vis-a-vis the WAC teams. You have both Fresno State and Hawaii with autobid asterisks after their names. I assume you expect Hawaii to win the autobid and Fresno to get an atlarge? And would the committee be so cruel as to pair the only two teams from a conference like that? I can understand doing it to the Pac-10...happens all the time. But the WAC? I don't see Rice paired with ECU or Fullerton with Irvine.
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5/12/2011 9:49:59 PM

It's The Talons
It's The Talons
Posts: 50
shoelessT wrote:
A troll? Ha nice try. I am just wondering why Southern Miss fans freak out over little stuff like that.



I wouldn't call it "freaking out" but if we are in the mix for a national seed why would we be matched up with the overall #1. A match up with UNC or Vanderbilt would make more sense geographically.
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5/12/2011 10:54:15 PM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 999
It's The Talons wrote:
shoelessT wrote:
A troll? Ha nice try. I am just wondering why Southern Miss fans freak out over little stuff like that.



I wouldn't call it "freaking out" but if we are in the mix for a national seed why would we be matched up with the overall #1. A match up with UNC or Vanderbilt would make more sense geographically.


The NCAA does not recognize 9-16 teams...past the top 8 national seeds the number 9 is the same as number 16.

Another thing that goes into consideration is avoiding pairing up regional hosts from the same conference in the supers...meaning FSU and GT wouldn't be sent to Virginia for supers. Fullerton wouldn't be sent to Virg. due to geographical, Stetson is a no brainer for Florida...as is Texas-Rice (or TCU instead of Rice...doesn't matter either way).
That only leaves A&M and TCU (I doubt the committee would send a Texas team North...but those would be the only 2, based on Kendall's projections, that would go to Virginia)

In my opinion this seems to be the most complete projections to date...I wouldn't (or couldn't justify) make any changes.


Very nicely done Kendall.
edited by OpihiMan on 5/12/2011
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