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5/15/2011 4:41:05 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2424
Florida Beaver wrote:
Easy DM, easy. It all come down to left coast, right coast. There always has been, but maybe not always will be, right coast bias. Football and baseball (thaks to UCLA, basketball includes left coast). The big difference? Time. TV will not cover games out here that run until 11 p.m. because most folk will go to sleep and not watch. There is very little cross coast watching going here, but ESPN other carriers of college sports will carry 85% right coast and leave left coast out in the cold. And since TV runs the media perceptions, the right coast is considered the "stronger" coast. Not true, but that's how the perceptions run. I say screw 'em. We know the truth of it.

I get that. Been living that for some time. My beef is the retarded metric that the NCAA baseball committee uses to select and seed teams. The conventional wisdom is that Oregon State will be a national seed. If we win the next two series--don't even have to sweep--we will be among the top eight seeds in the nation. But our RPI will be in the 20s. Kendall Rogers disparages the ISR and says "we don't use it" because the NCAA doesn't use it; they use the RPI. And yet he says OSU is a lock for the top eight. What does this say other than the RPI is useless? The ISR has OSU in the top eight. Doesn't that give you a hint that the ISR may be better at ranking teams if it more accurately approximates your personal assessment of who are the top ranked teams in the nation? And if we can all look at the Rat's Patootie Index and say, "yup...it sucks...not worth a duckturd," then why do people still use it like this: "Team X is 3-1 vs. RPI 25, 6-4 vs. RPI 50, and 12-6 vs. RPI 100"? The whole analysis of teams' performance versus other teams using the RPI becomes meaningless.

Flush the RPI. Loo Flush
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5/15/2011 5:08:42 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Madison went from starter to closing out 3 games. Got two of em. Way to go Ducks
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5/15/2011 5:15:00 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1218
Wow. USC takes 2 from ASU and the Ducks actualy show signs of a pulse and take the series from Stanford. My finishing score is gonna look really bad with those 2 wrong picks and the Beavs not sweeping. Arizina was supposed to be my other sweep pick and that didn't happen either.

And DM? I think NCAA will change from the RPI when they get rid of the BCS (which is probably never)
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5/15/2011 5:55:04 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1463
Riverduck, congrats on your Duck's series win over Stanford. I think there were just a few of us who got this pick right. I can't say I am proud of picking the Ducks to win the series as I really can't root for the Ducks. I'm convinced that Eugene and Hell are one in the same Your Ducks do concern me over the next couple of series, especially against my Beavs.
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5/15/2011 5:58:09 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1463
Dodger Matt wrote:
Florida Beaver wrote:
Easy DM, easy. It all come down to left coast, right coast. There always has been, but maybe not always will be, right coast bias. Football and baseball (thaks to UCLA, basketball includes left coast). The big difference? Time. TV will not cover games out here that run until 11 p.m. because most folk will go to sleep and not watch. There is very little cross coast watching going here, but ESPN other carriers of college sports will carry 85% right coast and leave left coast out in the cold. And since TV runs the media perceptions, the right coast is considered the "stronger" coast. Not true, but that's how the perceptions run. I say screw 'em. We know the truth of it.

I get that. Been living that for some time. My beef is the retarded metric that the NCAA baseball committee uses to select and seed teams. The conventional wisdom is that Oregon State will be a national seed. If we win the next two series--don't even have to sweep--we will be among the top eight seeds in the nation. But our RPI will be in the 20s. Kendall Rogers disparages the ISR and says "we don't use it" because the NCAA doesn't use it; they use the RPI. And yet he says OSU is a lock for the top eight. What does this say other than the RPI is useless? The ISR has OSU in the top eight. Doesn't that give you a hint that the ISR may be better at ranking teams if it more accurately approximates your personal assessment of who are the top ranked teams in the nation? And if we can all look at the Rat's Patootie Index and say, "yup...it sucks...not worth a duckturd," then why do people still use it like this: "Team X is 3-1 vs. RPI 25, 6-4 vs. RPI 50, and 12-6 vs. RPI 100"? The whole analysis of teams' performance versus other teams using the RPI becomes meaningless.

Flush the RPI. Loo Flush


DM, how do we get you on the selection committee?
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5/15/2011 6:27:15 PM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 611
BeaverBeliever20 wrote:
USC beats ASU 6-2. Beavers stay two games up on the Sun Devils. Great news for the Beavers.



thank goodness!!! of course now that has me worried about next week when we play said trojans.

just gotta remember that our magic number to clinch a tie for the pac 10 is 3, if we sweep USC it doesnt matter what ASU does and we get at least a share of the conference.

--
GO BEAVS!
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5/15/2011 6:53:06 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Like I said- I would be perfectly fine with the Beavers getting first place in the Pac. Only if we sweep them to possibly make it to a regional. And for that to happen we would have to be on like a 9 game winning streak with teams with way higher RPI's. I think that would be a story. Beavs have a better chance making it to the CWS than us to a regional. Sad but true.
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5/15/2011 6:53:59 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1463
borgguy wrote:
BeaverBeliever20 wrote:
USC beats ASU 6-2. Beavers stay two games up on the Sun Devils. Great news for the Beavers.



thank goodness!!! of course now that has me worried about next week when we play said trojans.

just gotta remember that our magic number to clinch a tie for the pac 10 is 3, if we sweep USC it doesnt matter what ASU does and we get at least a share of the conference.


I hear Trojans aren't very reliable, have a high error rate, and also have a tendancy to have holes in their defense.
ed
edited by BeaverBob on 5/15/2011
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5/15/2011 6:57:48 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1463
Riverduck wrote:
Like I said- I would be perfectly fine with the Beavers getting first place in the Pac. Only if we sweep them to possibly make it to a regional. And for that to happen we would have to be on like a 9 game winning streak with teams with way higher RPI's. I think that would be a story. Beavs have a better chance making it to the CWS than us to a regional. Sad but true.


Riverduck, you are a great sport. My Duck buddy has invited me to catch the Friday game of the series in Eugene. Should be a good series.
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5/15/2011 7:36:47 PM

rec1347
rec1347
Posts: 48
Dodger Matt wrote:
BeaverBob wrote:
I was looking at RPI in Boyd's World today. Beavers lose 1 game to UW and fall to 20th, down 9 spots.
edited by BeaverBob on 5/15/2011



If you look at the more accurate ISRs, OSU is at #8.

Check out our RPI needs now. No way for us to finish in the top 16. Why doesn't the NCAA just admit the Rat's Patootie Index ain't worth a duckturd and scrap it for something better, like the ISR?
edited by Dodger Matt on 5/15/2011


I wish they would use the ISR also. With Fresno State being #10, they would be in line to host a regional.
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5/15/2011 8:06:32 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2424
Day three

Arizona 8, Washington State 1: Wazzu avoided being shut out in their last time up when Tommy Richards led off with a triple, and Trace Tam Sing grounded out to knock him in. Alex Mejia finished 3 for 4 with 2 RBIs for the Cats. Kyle Simon (9-3) pitched a complete game six-hitter for the win, striking out five and walking none. Chad Arnold (2-4), who allowed all 8 Arizona runs (7 earned), took the loss. Rubber game Monday.

Series tied, 1-1.

Oregon 6, Stanford 5: The score rocked back and forth several times, with each team leading or tying at least twice. Stanford’s Tyler Gaffney manufactured his own run in the 5th, tying the game at 4-4. He singled with two outs, stole second, then took both third and home on a two-base wild pitch that Oregon catcher Paul Eshleman couldn’t find. Stanford again tied it in the 7th, when a wild pitch by Scott “Gas Can” McGough made it 5-5. Stanford tried to tie it one last time in the 8th. With the Ducks ahead 6-5, the Cardinal had runners on first and second after Gas Can had issued a two-out walk and surrendered a single. Kenny Diekroeger then singled through the right side, and Dave Giulani got the green light to score from second. Right fielder Aaron Jones threw to catcher Brett Hambright, who held onto the ball and delivered the tag on Giulani in a collision at the plate. The play kept the game-tying run off the board, and allowed Boer to shut out Stanford the rest of the way. McGough (2-6), picked up the win, tossing 1.2 shutout innings of relief on three hits and one walk while fanning two. Brett Thomas finished 2 for 4 with 3 RBIs for the Ducks. The Ducks earned their second Pac-10 series victory of the year and just missed sweeping the Cardinal because of a late-inning collapse yesterday.

Oregon wins series, 2-1.

USC 6, Arizona State 2: Big upset series win for the Trojans solidifies Oregon State’s grasp of the conference championship. The teams traded runs in the 3rd. ASU added a second in the 4th, and USC plated two on Brandon Garcia’s second homer in as many days to take a 3-2 lead. USC’s Alex Sherrod added his own 2 RBI homer in the 7th to increase the Trojan lead to 5-2. USC added a final run in the 8th. USC’s Logan Odom of Central Point, Oregon pitched a complete game for the win. ASU’s Jake Barrett (3.2 IP) took the loss. USC has won four of their seven Pac-10 series.

USC wins series, 2-1.

UCLA 3, CS Bakersfield 2: UCLA comes back from an opening game loss to win the series. Dean Espy led the Bruins at the plate, going 2 for 4 with 2 RBIs and a home run. Adam Plutko (5-3) went 8.0 IP, 12 Ks, 1+1 W+HBP, 4 hits, and 2 runs (both earned). Jonathan Montoya pitched the full 8 for the Roadrunners and did nearly as well as Plutko: 10 Ks 2 BBs, 8 hits, and 3 runs (all earned).

UCLA wins series, 2-1.
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5/15/2011 8:20:22 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1463
Dodger Matt wrote:
Day three

Arizona 8, Washington State 1: Wazzu avoided being shut out in their last time up when Tommy Richards led off with a triple, and Trace Tam Sing grounded out to knock him in. Alex Mejia finished 3 for 4 with 2 RBIs for the Cats. Kyle Simon (9-3) pitched a complete game six-hitter for the win, striking out five and walking none. Chad Arnold (2-4), who allowed all 8 Arizona runs (7 earned), took the loss. Rubber game Monday.

Series tied, 1-1.

Oregon 6, Stanford 5: The score rocked back and forth several times, with each team leading or tying at least twice. Stanford’s Tyler Gaffney manufactured his own run in the 5th, tying the game at 4-4. He singled with two outs, stole second, then took both third and home on a two-base wild pitch that Oregon catcher Paul Eshleman couldn’t find. Stanford again tied it in the 7th, when a wild pitch by Scott “Gas Can” McGough made it 5-5. Stanford tried to tie it one last time in the 8th. With the Ducks ahead 6-5, the Cardinal had runners on first and second after Gas Can had issued a two-out walk and surrendered a single. Kenny Diekroeger then singled through the right side, and Dave Giulani got the green light to score from second. Right fielder Aaron Jones threw to catcher Brett Hambright, who held onto the ball and delivered the tag on Giulani in a collision at the plate. The play kept the game-tying run off the board, and allowed Boer to shut out Stanford the rest of the way. McGough (2-6), picked up the win, tossing 1.2 shutout innings of relief on three hits and one walk while fanning two. Brett Thomas finished 2 for 4 with 3 RBIs for the Ducks. The Ducks earned their second Pac-10 series victory of the year and just missed sweeping the Cardinal because of a late-inning collapse yesterday.

Oregon wins series, 2-1.

USC 6, Arizona State 2: Big upset series win for the Trojans solidifies Oregon State’s grasp of the conference championship. The teams traded runs in the 3rd. ASU added a second in the 4th, and USC plated two on Brandon Garcia’s second homer in as many days to take a 3-2 lead. USC’s Alex Sherrod added his own 2 RBI homer in the 7th to increase the Trojan lead to 5-2. USC added a final run in the 8th. USC’s Logan Odom of Central Point, Oregon pitched a complete game for the win. ASU’s Jake Barrett (3.2 IP) took the loss. USC has won four of their seven Pac-10 series.

USC wins series, 2-1.

UCLA 3, CS Bakersfield 2: UCLA comes back from an opening game loss to win the series. Dean Espy led the Bruins at the plate, going 2 for 4 with 2 RBIs and a home run. Adam Plutko (5-3) went 8.0 IP, 12 Ks, 1+1 W+HBP, 4 hits, and 2 runs (both earned). Jonathan Montoya pitched the full 8 for the Roadrunners and did nearly as well as Plutko: 10 Ks 2 BBs, 8 hits, and 3 runs (all earned).

UCLA wins series, 2-1.


DM, as always, thanks for the excellent summary. I think you and Kendall should partner in in this forum. I can't think of a better way to make a living. BTW, do you know why the WSU series runs Sat-Monday? It seems like they have also done this in previous years.
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5/15/2011 8:21:45 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2424
No score update until tomorrow, when the AZ/Wazzu series ends, but I can tell you already this will be the second lowest high score all year (if Arizona wins) or the lowest (if Wazzu wins).

I can also say, with only two weeks left, that it's getting to crunch time for a few players. I will post a new thread on this probably tomorrow on your scores and some advice on how to go about the final two weeks. But in a nutshell, there are about four people in the 17.x range, four in the 16.x range, and the remainder below 16. For someone in the 16.x range to overcome the leader (assuming he maintains and does not fall below his current level), that person would have to score 20 to 24 on the next two weekends. Not impossible, but you have to pick very carefully and the teams might have to accommodate you with a sweep or two.

Bob, what you say about the Trojans is probably true, but remember, a man wearing a Trojan cap on his head is also more likely to score than a man who is not wearing Trojan gear.
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5/15/2011 8:30:51 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1463
Bob, what you say about the Trojans is probably true, but remember, a man wearing a Trojan cap on his head is also more likely to score than a man who is not wearing Trojan gear.

Can't disagree DM, especially when a Beaver is invovled
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5/16/2011 4:18:02 AM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1218
BeaverBob wrote:
Bob, what you say about the Trojans is probably true, but remember, a man wearing a Trojan cap on his head is also more likely to score than a man who is not wearing Trojan gear.


Can't disagree DM, especially when a Beaver is invovled

You guys crack me up!!!! Throw riverduck in with you two and and y'all can go duck yourselves,,,,,,,,,,,,3 Stooges
edited by Florida Beaver on 5/16/2011
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5/16/2011 10:15:19 AM

ASU74
ASU74
Posts: 1045
Dodger Matt wrote:
No score update until tomorrow, when the AZ/Wazzu series ends, but I can tell you already this will be the second lowest high score all year (if Arizona wins) or the lowest (if Wazzu wins).

I can also say, with only two weeks left, that it's getting to crunch time for a few players. I will post a new thread on this probably tomorrow on your scores and some advice on how to go about the final two weeks. But in a nutshell, there are about four people in the 17.x range, four in the 16.x range, and the remainder below 16. For someone in the 16.x range to overcome the leader (assuming he maintains and does not fall below his current level), that person would have to score 20 to 24 on the next two weekends. Not impossible, but you have to pick very carefully and the teams might have to accommodate you with a sweep or two.

Bob, what you say about the Trojans is probably true, but remember, a man wearing a Trojan cap on his head is also more likely to score than a man who is not wearing Trojan gear.


Going into this weekend I really thought the out comes were no brainers & we would have a couple of people (hopefully myself included) post some perfect scores. But noooo. We all got doggy style It is a good thing we pick for Glory & not Greenbacks.

--
Go Devils !!
Fork Off
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5/16/2011 9:39:17 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2424
Day four

Arizona 6, Washington State 4: Wazzu owned this game for the first six innings, leading the Wildcats by a score of 4-0. But Arizona burst forth with five hits and five unanswered runs (all earned) against starter James Wise in the 7th, highlighted by Johnny Field’s two-out triple. Taylor Ard (2 for 4, 2 RBIs, 1 HR) led the Cougars; Field (1 for 4, 2 RBIs) and Bryce Ortega (3 for 4, 1 RBI) led the Cats. UA’s Bryce Bandilla went 3.1 IP for the win. Wise took the loss.

Arizona wins series, 2-1.
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5/16/2011 9:50:50 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2424
Scores:
  • 16 opihi man
  • 15 BeaverBob
  • 15 MostUnknown
  • 14 ASU74
  • 14 BeaverBeliever20
  • 14 borgguy
  • 14 Dodger Matt
  • 14 Florida Beaver
  • 14 SouthCoastStu
  • 14 YellowlabOSU
  • 13 BballJones
  • 13 cas77
  • 13 CaughtBySparky
  • 13 CdinSV
  • 13 OregonStateChris
  • 12 rec1347
  • 12 SouthernBeaver
  • 12 WildCard85
Score analysis:
  • The winner this week (opihi man) only got two series right.
  • Tied for second, MostUnknown go three series right (most).
  • Highest average score: Ariz over WSU: 3.67. 14/18 got that one right.
  • Next highest, 9/18 correctly picked UCLA 2-1.
  • Lowest average: USC over ASU 1.33. Nobody got that right; only 6/18 got within one of getting that right.
  • Also low in average score, Ore over Stan: 1.94. 2/18 got that right.
  • Only 3/18 picked OSU 2-1.
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5/16/2011 10:05:10 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2424
Total average for the season

Here are the running totals. That is weeks you've participated, total points, average, your name, and your team (AFAIK). The split is between those with 5 or more weeks and those in the 3 to 4 range. To compete for the full glory, you will need at least 60%, so those of you with 4 weeks cannot miss the last two.

wks ttl avg name team
5 87.7 17.53 BeaverBeliever20 OSU
5 87.5 17.50 MostUnknown UCLA
5 86.5 17.30 SouthCoastStu OSU
6 102.5 17.08 SouthernBeaver OSU
7 118.0 16.86 BeaverBob OSU
6 100.8 16.81 opihi man OSU
6 16.4 16.42 OregonStateChris OSU
8 130.9 16.36 Dodger Matt OSU
8 128.0 15.99 Florida Beaver OSU
6 95.5 15.92 CaughtBySparky ASU
8 126.8 15.85 ASU74 ASU
8 126.5 15.82 cas77 ASU
5 75.3 15.07 2Bulldogs NA
7 98.0 14.00 WildCard85 Stan

4 70.7 17.67 rec1347 NA
3 51.7 17.22 YellowlabOSU OSU
4 64.2 16.04 borgguy OSU
3 48.0 16.00 BballJones OSU
4 55.0 13.75 CdinSV NA
3 34.8 11.61 RiverDuck Ore
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5/17/2011 12:11:37 AM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 1111
Dodger Matt wrote:
Scores:

  • The winner this week (opihi man) only got two series right.
  • Tied for second, MostUnknown go three series right (most).
  • Highest average score: Ariz over WSU: 3.67. 14/18 got that one right.
  • Next highest, 9/18 correctly picked UCLA 2-1.
  • Lowest average: USC over ASU 1.33. Nobody got that right; only 6/18 got within one of getting that right.
  • Also low in average score, Ore over Stan: 1.94. 2/18 got that right.
  • Only 3/18 picked OSU 2-1.

A win is a win...I'll take it, I'm surprised I'm even in contention considering this is my first win of the season. My victory was similar to the Beav's against UW. It wasn't pretty and I was outhit but I walked away with the series.
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