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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » PG 64: Latest NCAA Projections (ASK Q'S) -- 5/4

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5/4/2011 3:52:10 PM

Kendall
Kendall
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Here are the latest NCAA projections ... let the questions fly.

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=5585
edited by Kendall on 5/4/2011

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Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
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5/4/2011 4:10:01 PM

lsuchamps11
lsuchamps11
Posts: 11
Kendall, what does LSU have to do down the stretch to make the tournament. Seems to me the RPI(21) is good enought to make the big dance, but in your opinion do they have to win their remaining series to get in.
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5/4/2011 4:20:14 PM

CDinSV
CDinSV
Posts: 27
Um, Kendall....how can the WAC get 2 auto bids? You have Fresno & Hawai'i both getting auto bids from the WAC, does the Regular season & Tournament champs each get a bid, if so, that is mighty unfair.
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5/4/2011 4:22:25 PM

Kendall
Kendall
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CDinSV wrote:
Um, Kendall....how can the WAC get 2 auto bids? You have Fresno & Hawai'i both getting auto bids from the WAC, does the Regular season & Tournament champs each get a bid, if so, that is mighty unfair.


Hawaii was the auto bid. Accidentally put a star next to Fresno State. Sorry about that.

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Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
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5/4/2011 4:25:15 PM

Kendall
Kendall
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lsuchamps11 wrote:
Kendall, what does LSU have to do down the stretch to make the tournament. Seems to me the RPI(21) is good enought to make the big dance, but in your opinion do they have to win their remaining series to get in.


LSU,
As shown by your post count, one post, just let me say welcome to the site. With that said, as you notice in the projections, we have the Tigers the last team out of the postseason. LSU, typically, wouldn't even be close to the mix with such a poor conference record/standing, but it's a poor year for bubble teams. The Tigers aren't far off, they just need something to go their way in the next week. With that said, looking forward, it's my take the Tigers HAVE to win two of their next three series vs. Alabama, Tennessee and Mississippi State to make the field of 64. That's to even have a chance. Right now, Tennessee at home obviously is expected to be a series win. Alabama, in an emotional series this weekend will be difficult, and State could be playing for its life at home the final weekend. Right now, though, as I said, I think it's win two more series and you're in (with plenty of controversy from other teams).

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Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
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5/4/2011 5:18:06 PM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 990
After an impressive road win against UCLA just wondering why the Beavers dropped from the #4 National Seed to #6...after you moved them up in the polls too?

Just curious, thanks Kendall
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5/4/2011 6:49:41 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1072
I noticed that too. I also believe he still does not truly believe in his heart of hearts that Oregon State is as good as they look. I can realistically see UF ranked above Oregon State, but I can see the Beavs ranked above them too. But below Texas? Big emphatic NOT. I keep seeing the "Beavers continue to astound" comments from Kendall but it has taken a tooth pulling for him to rank them as high as they are. I remember 4 or 5 weeks ago, Stanford was his P10 darling and look where they are in P10 rankings. So while Kendall is nearly always spot on, NEARLY I say, he does not get it right all the time. But really? It's okay. Post season will tell all in Omaha. One question because I don't know. When was the last time a P10 team won every conference series they played in a year, who was it and what was their ranking? (mostly referring to right coast bias RPI I guess)
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5/4/2011 7:44:54 PM

Kendall
Kendall
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Florida Beaver wrote:
I noticed that too. I also believe he still does not truly believe in his heart of hearts that Oregon State is as good as they look. I can realistically see UF ranked above Oregon State, but I can see the Beavs ranked above them too. But below Texas? Big emphatic NOT. I keep seeing the "Beavers continue to astound" comments from Kendall but it has taken a tooth pulling for him to rank them as high as they are. I remember 4 or 5 weeks ago, Stanford was his P10 darling and look where they are in P10 rankings. So while Kendall is nearly always spot on, NEARLY I say, he does not get it right all the time. But really? It's okay. Post season will tell all in Omaha. One question because I don't know. When was the last time a P10 team won every conference series they played in a year, who was it and what was their ranking? (mostly referring to right coast bias RPI I guess)


I have an unbelievable amount of respect for the job that Coach Casey has done this year, and not only have I done a story just for those guys, I talk to Coach Case about once every week and a half or so. So, hear me out that it's not a respect issue. Just because I don't have Oregon State top five doesn't mean I don't respect the heck out of the job it has done this season.

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Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
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5/4/2011 7:47:53 PM

Kendall
Kendall
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OpihiMan wrote:
After an impressive road win against UCLA just wondering why the Beavers dropped from the #4 National Seed to #6...after you moved them up in the polls too?

Just curious, thanks Kendall


Vanderbilt, Virginia and South Carolina easily have the best three resumes, so that leaves you with Florida and Oregon State. Florida is in a three-way tie for first in the SEC, is 10-6 vs. RPI Top 25, 19-9 vs. RPI Top 50 and 32-10 vs. RPI Top 100. By comparison, Oregon State, whose RPI actually somehow dropped in the last few days, is 6-2 vs. RPI Top 25, 12-5 vs. RPI Top 50 and 19-6 vs. RPI Top 100. UF gets the advantage. Now, compare that to the Longhorns. UT is 5-4 vs. RPI Top 25 (advantage OSU), 14-6 vs. RPI Top 50 (advantage UT) and 22-9 vs. RPI Top 100 (advantage UT). Hope that sheds some light for you.

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Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
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5/4/2011 8:28:44 PM

SC Tiger
SC Tiger
Posts: 6
Clemson as a 2-seed to Vandy despite a Top 10 RPI? Seems a little unfair don't you think?
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5/4/2011 9:02:05 PM

Kendall
Kendall
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SC Tiger wrote:
Clemson as a 2-seed to Vandy despite a Top 10 RPI? Seems a little unfair don't you think?


Clemson may have a high RPI, but it's not an incredibly strong resume "yet". Remember, the Tigers are 5-9 vs. RPI Top 25, 9-11 vs. RPI Top 50 and 17-13 vs. RPI Top 100. That doesn't really scream difficult in the eyes of the committee regardless of how good you or I think the Tigers are or can be...... they're only going to look at those raw numbers and pretty much nothing else.

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Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/5/2011 7:58:50 AM

somissbacker
somissbacker
Posts: 1
If Southern Miss wins the final 3 series on the schedule (UAB, Houston, Rice) does that put them on the cusp of a national seed? (assuming their RPI gets up to around 12) Thanks.
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5/5/2011 9:20:14 AM

tater head
tater head
Posts: 26
I'd be amazed if the Southland is a 3 bid league. I expect SFA to fall back with the remainder of their SLC schedule against SHSU, Lamar and SELA. Think it's optimistic for the SLC to get two teams in.
See you fell back in love with Baylor after they finally snapped their 4 series losing streak in the Big 12 and have them in. Wouldn't have thought a series win against the bottom of the Big 12 Nebraska would carry so much weight. At 9-12 in the Big 12, Baylor is on the bubble to make their own conference tourney.
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5/5/2011 10:03:47 AM

Kendall
Kendall
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Posts: 7491
tater head wrote:
I'd be amazed if the Southland is a 3 bid league. I expect SFA to fall back with the remainder of their SLC schedule against SHSU, Lamar and SELA. Think it's optimistic for the SLC to get two teams in.
See you fell back in love with Baylor after they finally snapped their 4 series losing streak in the Big 12 and have them in. Wouldn't have thought a series win against the bottom of the Big 12 Nebraska would carry so much weight. At 9-12 in the Big 12, Baylor is on the bubble to make their own conference tourney.


It'll be interesting to see what happens with SFA the next few weeks. It's bid depends on winning the conference tournament anyway. With that said, go look at all the other resumes (actually I'm about to release a bubble watch), and Baylor deserves to be in over some of the other terrible resumes out there. Mississippi State, for instance, has a resume similar to Baylor's and it isn't in. Tough day when you "love" a team that barely made it in the field of 64. I get the feeling you're a Texas or A&M fan.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/5/2011 10:06:07 AM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7491
somissbacker wrote:
If Southern Miss wins the final 3 series on the schedule (UAB, Houston, Rice) does that put them on the cusp of a national seed? (assuming their RPI gets up to around 12) Thanks.


Definitely would put them in the mix for a national seed, but it also would require going very deep in the Conference USA tournament. Biggest issue that USM has right now is that it is only 0-1 vs. RPI Top 25 teams. In other words, it really hasn't played a series against an "elite" RPI team, and that'll hurt. Fortunately for the Golden Eagles, they still have Rice to play this season. USM is 9-6 vs. RPI Top 50 and 19-10 vs. RPI Top 100. Again, last two figures aren't bad, but not national seed worthy for now .... that could change.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/6/2011 12:49:00 PM

tater head
tater head
Posts: 26
Kendall wrote:
tater head wrote:
I'd be amazed if the Southland is a 3 bid league. I expect SFA to fall back with the remainder of their SLC schedule against SHSU, Lamar and SELA. Think it's optimistic for the SLC to get two teams in.
See you fell back in love with Baylor after they finally snapped their 4 series losing streak in the Big 12 and have them in. Wouldn't have thought a series win against the bottom of the Big 12 Nebraska would carry so much weight. At 9-12 in the Big 12, Baylor is on the bubble to make their own conference tourney.


It'll be interesting to see what happens with SFA the next few weeks. It's bid depends on winning the conference tournament anyway. With that said, go look at all the other resumes (actually I'm about to release a bubble watch), and Baylor deserves to be in over some of the other terrible resumes out there. Mississippi State, for instance, has a resume similar to Baylor's and it isn't in. Tough day when you "love" a team that barely made it in the field of 64. I get the feeling you're a Texas or A&M fan.


Am a Texas fan but have a SLC connection. Texas State has the regular season tiebreaker over SFA by virtue of their series win v. the Jacks. I think the only way SFA gets in is via the tourney. If that's the case I don't see both Texas State and SELA getting invites so still think the best the SLC can hope for is two bids.

Now back to Baylor. If you gave them a #3 seed then aren't you saying they are at least more deserving than 16 others you have given at-large bids to? I'd rather see that bid go to a SFA or other mid major who should be rewarded for playing above average baseball and not reward mediocrity by giving a bid to a team that underachieved and finished at the bottom half of their conference. Personally, I don't care what your RPI is, if you can't at least finish in the top half of your conference then you don't deserve to dance. Baylor has had some ugly losses. For crying out loud, they're 4-4 against the SLC!!
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