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4/26/2011 10:10:00 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2424
I know Kendall says Oregon State is nearly a lock for a national seed at this point, provided there is no meltdown, but we are not within the magic eightball of Rat's Patootie Index elitism yet (we're #10), and a quick glance at Boyd's RPI Needs chart says we don't have a shot right now even if we run the table and go 18-0.

I think it highly unlikely that we wouldn't make it with that record, but then again, I don't think it likely that we do go 18-0 the rest of the Pac-10 season. So what's left?

Root for the enemies of our enemies! Here's a quick hit list of the teams most likely to fall out of contention with a few losses and allow OSU to inch upward. (This all presumes a good weekend against UCLA. And Cal. And USC....)
Team to beat              RPI  Record to stay within RPI-8
Arizona State               3  14-4
North Carolina 6 8-6
Georgia Tech 7 12-3
Florida State 8 9-5
Texas A&M 9 14-2
Top one's easy, even though they have the top RPI in this list. If OSU wins the Pac-10, and we don't make the RPI-8 list, the committee will have a hard time giving ASU a national seed with our head-to-head sweep. Nonetheless, a little distance between us and them in the Pac-10 standings will make it easier for the Beav to get the lone Pac-10 national seed.

UNC is gonna be tough, especially since two of the others on the list are in the same conference, and SOMEBODY has to win those games. Best hope: Losses to ECU, Maryland (3), and a sweep by UVA (a virtual lock anyway).

Georgia Tech only needs to lose four, so we're hoping for at least nine: A rare upset sweep by Illinois-Chicago (yeah, I can dream), a sweep by Clemson, and a season-ending sweep by Virginia Tech.

Florida State is probably the easiest of the ACC teams to peel off this list. They have three at Miami, three with Central Florida, three at NC State (who took two of three from UNC), and three with Clemson. Sayonara, Seminoles.

aTm lost tonight in 12 innings to Sam Houston State, so we only need a couple more losses, but we are shooting for at least six. Unfortunately, their schedule doesn't look that tough except for Texas the last weekend of the season. Perhaps, if we're wishing, we can wish for Dallas Baptist (3) and Missouri (3) to deal the death blow before the Aggies roll into Austin.
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