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4/19/2011 4:55:26 PM

prongATO
prongATO
Posts: 13
How are the initial RPI values calculated for a season?

Luckily my Alma Mater, Oklahoma State plays in a "power conference" but the big 12 still pales in comparison to the SEC. The latest projections have the SEC getting 10 bids to the NCAA tournament. That's ridiculous.. Basically if you have a team and step on the field in the SEC you get a super-high RPI every year?

Could someone clarify this for me? or are the odds really stacked in the SEC's favor year after year after year after...
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4/19/2011 7:05:54 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Yes, the SEC benefits from the inaccuracies of the Rat's Patootie Index hugely every year. Since the RPI is not as good as the ISR (see Boyd's World for ISRs and pseudo-RPIs), Western fans (from Texas to the Pacific and beyond) typically use the ISRs instead. The RPI is really only good to see how the selection committee will likely place seeds. Then when they get to the bubble teams, it becomes only one of the factors, and not as heavily relied on as it was, say five years ago, the way I understand it.

I do not think the SEC will get ten teams in the tournament.
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4/19/2011 7:41:53 PM

prongATO
prongATO
Posts: 13
It just gets frustrating looking at Boyd's RPI needs and seeing that Oklahoma State needs to finish pretty strong to attain a top 16 RPI yet some of the SEC teams only need an approximate .500 record for the rest of the season (and currently HAVE a .500 record).
edited by prongATO on 4/19/2011
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4/20/2011 12:21:36 AM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Tell me about it. It's allegedly because their competition is so much better than yours. Take a look at the other OSU two lines below yours. We have a better RPI (10 to your 23), yet we supposedly have no chance of reaching that magical national seed octet. And it's all because of that number on the far right....
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4/20/2011 12:17:50 PM

prongATO
prongATO
Posts: 13
Well here's to OSU.. both of them! Let's keep all keep up the winning ways!
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4/21/2011 10:05:03 AM

Out of Conference
Out of Conference
Posts: 25
Dodger Matt wrote:
I do not think the SEC will get ten teams in the tournament.


I'm an admitted SEC homer, but I agree in that I don't know how we get 10. Let's say SC, Vandy, FL, Arky, and UGA are givens, OK then pick 5 more from UK, UT, Bama, Ole Miss, MSU, LSU, Auburn. Scratch UK, UT- those are easy to scratch since they likely do not have the ability to turn things around or win the SECT. That leaves Bama, Ole Miss, MSU, LSU, Auburn to pick 5 more from. LSU has ability, but won't go unless they make a move ASAP or win the SECT- which they may not even make it to. So someone from LSU, UT, or UK has to be picked for the conference to get 10 to the regionals - I don't see it happening at the rate things are going.
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4/21/2011 1:27:08 PM

theeguy
theeguy
Posts: 6
Out of Conference wrote:
I'm an admitted SEC homer, but I agree in that I don't know how we get 10. Let's say SC, Vandy, FL, Arky, and UGA are givens, OK then pick 5 more from UK, UT, Bama, Ole Miss, MSU, LSU, Auburn. Scratch UK, UT- those are easy to scratch since they likely do not have the ability to turn things around or win the SECT. That leaves Bama, Ole Miss, MSU, LSU, Auburn to pick 5 more from. LSU has ability, but won't go unless they make a move ASAP or win the SECT- which they may not even make it to. So someone from LSU, UT, or UK has to be picked for the conference to get 10 to the regionals - I don't see it happening at the rate things are going.


I'm not so sure UGa is a lock either. They still have to make it over .500 by the end of the year.
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4/23/2011 11:21:04 PM

Carolina Mike
Carolina Mike
Posts: 51
I am also a SEC fan, but absolutely hate the RPI system. The ISR's in my opinion are much more accurate in the long run and are much more rewarding for inter sectional play.While I am a Gamecock and SEC fan, I think the conference would be very lucky to get 8 teams to the show.7 would be more realistic. As long as you are in the top 40 "RPI", you usually have a great shot for the tourney.The rest gets filled in with the conference champs.

--
Baseball is like church....many attend but few understand.
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4/24/2011 10:37:10 AM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Here's another anomaly: Washington State, with a record of 15-19, now apparently has the #1 SOS according to Boyd. They have a 44 ISR and a 33 RPI. Now their record is not an accurate indicator of how good they are because they have lost to some very good teams. But a west coast team is not usually ranked higher in the RPI than in the ISR, and that 11-point difference is not insignificant. My only guess is that the RPI rewards a team too much for its opponents' records.
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5/2/2011 9:10:28 AM

The Ghost of Dan Canevari
The Ghost of Dan Canevari
Posts: 29
Kendall, i know Boyd's isnt the official NCAA RPI, but its usually pretty similar... How does the RPI system have Miami at #11, but Texas A&M at #16?
Just because A&M had one bad weekend against Missouri and Miami had one decent weekend against a struggling UNC (where they had just jumped into the top 25) and then follow it up by losing 2 of 3 to FSU... A&M definitely has a much more solid resume' then UM. UM is currently 1-8 vs top 10 teams (rankings, not rpi).
I dont think they deserve to be ahead of teams like Stetson, Texas, Southern Miss, OU, Cal St Fullerton, Arkansas, TCU, etc either... If you look at the RPI of teams they have most of their wins against, they are up there. Can you tell me how this works/happens?
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5/2/2011 3:59:09 PM

The Ghost of Dan Canevari
The Ghost of Dan Canevari
Posts: 29
If not Kendall, anyone willing to take a stab and explain how this happens?
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5/3/2011 9:25:23 AM

FullertonBaseballFan
FullertonBaseballFan
Posts: 146
Rankings are irrelevant in both the RPI and in how the selection process works. 50% of the RPI formula is your opponents win %. Miami has already played series against Florida, Georgia Tech, North Carolina and FSU, all of whom are in the discussion for national seeds and regional hosting with RPI's in the top ten. A&M's best RPI series thus far are against OU and OSU (18 and 24) with the next two best RPI series against K State and Baylor (28 and 38) with Texas coming up later in May.
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5/3/2011 10:36:06 AM

The Ghost of Dan Canevari
The Ghost of Dan Canevari
Posts: 29
Yes, but Miami got swept by both UF and GT, lost 2/3 to FSU, and won series 2/3 against the lowest ranked team of all those, UNC.


A&M has played Gonzaga (who some have in top 25), Rice, Cal St Fullerton, FIU, OU, Baylor, TCU, and Ok St... and they are def not 3-9 vs those teams
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5/3/2011 10:50:07 AM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 1111
Which is why the RPI is really stupid, it puts too high an emphasis on SOS, which is also why it is heavily biased to anything east of Arizona.

A prime example is how Oregon State gets punished for sweeping a very bad Hartford team, even though the Beavers have a rediculous campaign going (with a top 3 resume) they get punished for playing that series.

The RPI is not indicative of a teams talent, ability, or results. It mostly shows who made the toughest schedule, who plays in the SEC, and who's opponents of opponents have a tough schedule and are winning.
edited by OpihiMan on 5/3/2011
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5/3/2011 12:50:50 PM

FullertonBaseballFan
FullertonBaseballFan
Posts: 146
You asked an RPI specific question. The RPI doesn't care that Gonzaga is ranked in the polls so it doesn't do any good to bring that up, all the RPI notices is a team in the mid 50's.

A&M played one game against Fullerton, one game against TCU and two games against Rice. It helps when you mention the number of games a team played against somebody when you list their opponents. Once again, Miami has played twelve games against the RPI top ten. A&M hasn't played any.

OpihiMan nailed it in his last paragraph.
edited by FullertonBaseballFan on 5/3/2011
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5/3/2011 1:31:10 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
As Opihi Man states, the Rat's Patootie Index overranks southeastern teams. This is why the SEC primarily but also other southeastern conferences favor its continued usage. Boyd' ISRs are more accurate because they don't stop at Opponents' Opponents and factor in all games and opponents. Not perfect, but better. This is why experts and pundits who use the RPI solely for their assessments are usually a bit off. Looking at the two teams you are questioning, check out the ISRs versus the RPIs:

ISR:
15 118.6 28 15 29 15 13 Miami, Florida
16 118.4 30 14 30 14 40 Texas A&M

RPI:
11 0.598 28 15 29 15 Miami, Florida
16 0.594 30 14 30 14 Texas A&M

Opihi Man says anyone east of Arizona gets penalized in the RPI, but from my experience, teams in Texas are usually in the "just right" zone--almost equal in both--and this example shows it for aTm. But Miami is four slots higher in the RPI.
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5/3/2011 2:27:05 PM


Guest
I too see an exaggerated RPI for certain SEC or ACC teams with a history of success. And i hate to bash on Miami, but like i said before, they shouldnt be ahead of those teams i listed earlier in RPI.
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