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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » Pac-12 predictions: 2013 Week 14 (RIVALRY WEEK)

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5/14/2013 8:50:50 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Week 14 (Rivalry Week)

The most anticipated week of the regular season is here. As always, even when the rivalry matchups are not meaningful in terms of conference or postseason standings, they still provide some very good series from top to bottom. Fortunately, this year we also do have some very meaningful pairings. Two weeks left to the regular season!

This week’s games
#3 OSU at #6 Ore
Ariz at #14 ASU
#11 UCLA at USC
Stan at Cal
UW at WSU
XKan (Kansas) at Utah (starts Saturday)

An example ballot would look like this:
OSU 3-0
Ariz 2-1
USC 2-1
Stan 3-0
WSU 3-0
XKan 2-1


Rivalry Week Series

  • #3 Oregon State at #6 Oregon. This is not only the top Pac-12 series of the week (and of the year), it is easily the top Civil War series ever played between these two clubs. Never have the two faced each other in a three-game series ranked in the top ten nationally, and the conference championship and potential national seeds for the postseason are both on the line. Both teams are locks to host regionals, regardless of the outcome of this series, and Kendall Rogers believes they are both safe bets for national seeds, but one of the two may be knocked out of consideration if swept. In ny case, any matchup between top ten teams is sure to be good, and close. And give Oregon a slight HFA, which might tip some items in the Ducks’ favor. But here is a collection of stats that the casual Beaver or Duck fan might want to have at his fingertips, to impress the Civil War watchers around him this weekend.... (Hope this doesn’t bore you non-Beaver-Duck fans.)

    OSU is ISR 3; Oregon 6.

    Ken Massey ranks Oregon State #1 in the nation in “defense” (which includes pitching) and Oregon #2. Offense is OSU #30 to Oregon #39. So these teams appear to be even in Massey’s reckoning. OSU’s run differential is higher: 16th in the nation with a +2.9. Oregon’s is +2.0 (I don’t know for certain, but I think puts them in the 30 to 40 range nationally).

    Offensively, OSU’s BA is .284; Oregon’s is .265. OBP for OSU is .377 (#56); for Oregon, .350. (#182). Slugging for OSU is .377 (#122); for Oregon .369 (#149). The Ducks get one offensive stat over the Beavers: Stolen bases per game 1.35 (#72) to OSU’s 0.92 (#183).

    On the pitching/defense side of the ball: OSU’s 2.12 team ERA is second in the nation (behind Arkansas’s 1.87); Oregon is #10 at 2.62. Hits allowed per 9 innings: OSU 6.74 (#4); Oregon 7.61 (#15). WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) has OSU #3 in the nation at 1.05; Oregon is #20 at 1.19. Double plays turned per game: OSU #13 with 1.06; Oregon #179 with 0.73. Okay, I’ll give the Ducks one defensive stat: Fielding percentage is #5 in the nation (.980) compared to OSU’s #47 (.973).

    So how much is that home field advantage worth? Massey’s predictions (which are suspect, but add some fun to the speculative game) say Oregon will win the first two games 2-1, and OSU will win the third 3-2. I guess when you’re dealing with such dominant pitching from both teams, runs will be at a premium this weekend.
  • Arizona (ISR 58) at Arizona State (ISR 12) in the Territorial Cup. The Wildcats took themselves out of postseason consideration by getting swept last week in ugly fashion by UCLA. And even if they sweep the Sun Devils and the Trojans, it will be too little too late for them. So they’re playing for state pride. Sad that they don’t even get a chance to defend their national title. Beaver fans remember that.
  • USC (ISR 96) has suffered yet another disappointing year in the (so far) seven-year struggle to rebuild after Mike Gillespie’s premature firing in 2006 after 20 years coaching the Trojans, with another interim coach dismissed in disgrace and another lackluster season. UCLA (ISR 10) was a preseason favorite, and though clearly not as good as Perfect Game has consistently ranked them, still a very good top 20 team. I expect the Trojans will do their best to spoil UCLA’s hopes of hosting with a major upset, and it wouldn’t take a severe meltdown for UCLA to fail. According to Boyd, UCLA needs to win 6 of its last 8 games to finish in the sweet 16 (and hope to be a regional host). With games @Fullerton (1), @USC (3), vs. UCSB, and @Stanford (3), wining six of those does not look automatic.
  • Stanford (ISR 42) and Cal (ISR 81) are in the same boat...and it’s not a happy boat. Both are out of the postseason discussion and are merely playing for pride now. How much difference would AJ Vanegas have made for Stanford had he not been injured? Enough to get the few key wins the Cardinal needed to make the cut? Despite some impressive talent, Stanford has not lived up to its potential.
  • The Washington schools are part of the same unhappy flotilla the Bay Area boats are in, but UW (ISR 98) and Wazzu (ISR 104) have no paddles. I’m not sure what the name of the creek is they’re in, but this Apple Cup is a sour cider series. Most fans expected UW to continue its improvement and thought Wazzu could be in a breakout year, only to see them both clean floors in the basement for much of the season. That aside, these two teams are closely matched, and if anything can salve a wounded ego after a poor season, it would be a season-ending (or near to it) rivalry victory. Both teams have decent pitching, and Wazzu some good batting too. But neither could pull it all together over the season. Wazzu’s high water mark was the first week, when they took two from the Devils on the road; UW’s when they beat the Beavers twice in a day in rain-soaked Seattle. May they both see better days next year.
  • Utah (ISR 127), our “orphan” as ASU74 calls them, has no rival and plays its nonconference series this weekend. Kansas (ISR 76) is not a baseball powerhouse, but this year, with the Big XII looking really weak, the Jayhawks are relatively decent, and come into SLC with a better ISR and RPI than Utah. It’ll be interesting to see how the Utes, especially with their pitching, fare against a Big XII opponent. It’s only a matter of time, playing in the Pac-12 and against some of the best teams in the nation, that Utah turns the corner and starts competing in baseball.
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5/14/2013 9:05:04 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1216
You know what? Since I have taken RD's bottom spot, I am going whole hog, so to speak. Nothing to lose.....everything to gain.
OSU 3-0
ASU 3-0
UCLA 3-0
Stan 3-0
WSU 3-0
Utah 3-0
edited by Florida Beaver on 5/15/2013
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5/14/2013 9:13:15 PM

SouthernBeaver
SouthernBeaver
Posts: 200
OSU 2-1
ASU 3-0
UCLA 3-0
Stan 2-1
UW 2-1
XKan 2-1
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5/14/2013 9:46:41 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Florida Beaver wrote:
OSU 3-0
ASU 2-1
UCLA 3-0
Stan 2-1
WSU 3-0
Utah 2-1

You know the last time they played the beavs at home who did not even make the playoffs.. they got broom action. After that last game.. I would be thinking you are a bit arrogant. But hey your a beav.. so touche.
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5/14/2013 10:18:22 PM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 611
OSU 2-1 It kills me to give the duckies a game, and I will gladly lose a point for a beaver sweep. But I am thinking beyond just the rivalry, I want both teams to get a national seed, and the best way for that to happen is for the ducks to avoid a sweep, so beavs win 2-1 take a 2 (basically 2.5) game lead into the final weekend, and only need to take 1 from wsu to wrap up the title

ASU 2-1 The last two weeks I have predicted this the Devils 3-0 and they have sorely dissapointed, but its for pride, and I think ASU74 could use some good wins going down the stretch

UCLA 3-0 UCLA is getting hot down the stretch and hopes to keep their slim conference title hopes alive

Stan 2-1 with how up and down stanford has been playing I just dont see a sweep here

WSU 2-1 because it is in Pullman

XKan 2-1 Utah takes one and continues its improvement over last year but it will be long slow going for the Utes

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GO BEAVS!
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5/14/2013 10:22:01 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1458
Pac 12 teams not having a good night against ooc teams. All teams that are playing tonight are behind or have lost and the Duckies are tied.
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5/14/2013 10:29:29 PM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 1111
OSU 2-1
ASU 3-0
UCLA 2-1
Stan 2-1
UW 2-1
XKan 2-1
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5/15/2013 12:12:42 AM

beaverstate69
beaverstate69
Posts: 23
OSU 2-1
ASU 2-1
UCLA 2-1
Cal 2-1
WSU 2-1
Utah 2-1
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5/15/2013 7:20:50 AM

ASU74
ASU74
Posts: 1035
Ore 2-1
ASU 2-1
UCLA 2-1
Stan 2-1
UW 2-1
XKan 2-1
FB
I like your style.
F

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Go Devils !!
Fork Off
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5/15/2013 10:12:26 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Florida Beaver wrote:
You know what? Since I have taken RD's bottom spot, I am going whole hog, so to speak. Nothing to lose.....everything to gain.
OSU 3-0
ASU 3-0
UCLA 3-0
Stan 3-0
WSU 3-0
Utah 3-0
edited by Florida Beaver on 5/15/2013

Remember that little bet? I would hate for you to ride the bottom, and wear green and yellow, and have a crummy disclaimer showing your love for the ducks. Oh well, anything to spice things up. We only live once I guess.
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5/15/2013 10:17:27 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Well, if we beat gonzaga tonight, we could technially lose 3 out of 4 versus the beavs and still get a national seed if we sweep utah...
Ore 2-1
ASU 3-0
UCLA 2-1
Stan 2-1
UW 2-1
XKan 2-1
Picking the stanford or wsu game was tough. Pretty much flip of the coin.
with eight games remaining. Healy is out with a back injury.. He could play on friday.
edited by Riverduck on 5/15/2013
edited by Riverduck on 5/15/2013
edited by Riverduck on 5/15/2013
edited by Riverduck on 5/15/2013
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5/15/2013 12:49:30 PM

JCR
JCR
Posts: 12
ORE 2-1
ASU 2-1
UCLA 3-0
Stan 2-1
WSU 2-1
Utah 2-1
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5/15/2013 6:26:41 PM

WildCard85
WildCard85
Posts: 78
OSU 2-1
ASU 2-1
UCLA 2-1
Stan 2-1
WSU 2-1
Utah 2-1

GO CARDINAL !
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5/15/2013 6:39:05 PM

hogfan4life
hogfan4life
Posts: 305
Ore 2-1
ASU 2-1
UCLA 2-1
Stan 2-1
WSU 2-1
Utah 2-1
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5/15/2013 7:13:59 PM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 611
one question though, why did they move the rivaly games up a week?

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GO BEAVS!
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5/15/2013 7:37:15 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Wow, have some support for a Oregon win. Awesome. Fowl territory is calling
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5/15/2013 7:44:44 PM

YellowlabOSU
YellowlabOSU
Posts: 34
OSU 3-0
ASU 2-1
UCLA 3-0
Stan 2-1
WSU 2-1
XKan 2-1
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5/15/2013 9:15:44 PM

ASU74
ASU74
Posts: 1035
borgguy wrote:
one question though, why did they move the rivaly games up a week?


I don't ever remember have all the rivalries the same weekend, but i like it....next year they will have to get Utah & BYU in the lineup.....I like it better than the last weekend of the season....whatcha think?Educated

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Go Devils !!
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5/15/2013 11:23:48 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
They did last year. And I like it the penultimate week. Last year it was the last weekend, and it just gets lost with all the stupid conference tournaments and the committee selection shenanigans. I think the rivalry week games are too important to take a back seat to all that nonsense.

In football however, I hate seeing Oregon or Oregon State play some other team after the Civil War. That should be the finale before the bowl games.
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5/16/2013 1:05:02 AM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Not feeling very adventurous this week. No sweeps for me.

OSU 2-1
ASU 2-1
UCLA 2-1
Stan 2-1
WSU 2-1
XKan 2-1
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