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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » Pac-12 predictions: 2013 Week 13

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5/8/2013 8:28:09 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Looking ahead to the last three weeks of Pac-12 play. Here are the standings and the schedules for the next three weeks:
.1 OSU . . 17 . 4 . 0.810 . @Stan, @Ore, WSU
.2 Ore . . 19 . 5 . 0.792 . bye, OSU, @Utah
.3 UCLA. . 14 . 7 . 0.667 . Ariz, @USC, @Stan
.4 ASU . . 12 . 9 . 0.571 . @Cal, Ariz, @UW
.5 Stan. . 11 .10 . 0.524 . OSU, @Cal, UCLA
.6 Ariz. . 10 .11 . 0.476 . @UCLA, @ASU, USC
.7 UW. . . .8 .13 . 0.381 . Utah, @WSU, ASU
.8 Cal . . .9 .15 . 0.375 . ASU, Stan, bye
.9 USC . . .8 .13 . 0.381 . WSU, UCLA, @Ariz
10 WSU . . .7 .14 . 0.333 . @USC, UW, @OSU
11 Utah. . .5 .19 . 0.208 . @UW, bye, Ore
Although UCLA still has an outside chance, and even ASU and Stanford are not mathematically eliminated from winning the conference, the fact is this is a race between Oregon and Oregon State. Looking at the remaining games, you have to say that the team with the easiest path to the championship is.....Oregon. They play a nonconference foe (another OSU) and come home to prepare for Oregon State in the Civil War at home. Now that might not end up being much of a home field advantage, but with their last tough opponent visiting their ballpark and finishing on the road against the league’s last place team, Oregon’s chances appear much better than the Beavs’.

Oregon State travels to Stanford next week, where Mark Appel awaits them on Friday. Matt Boyd has been hurling as well as Appel, arguably better, when you compare head-to-head stats. But the Cardinal just took two of three on the road from ASU and may be on another upswing in their seesaw season. That will not be an easy road win for OSU. Then they take on Oregon. Nuff said. In their final week--if they emerge from the previous two series victorious, even with 2-1 tallies in both--they will still probabbly need to sweep Wazzu to win the title outright (not counting tiebreakers). With the way the Cougars have been playing, that might not be as hard as sweeping Utah on the road, but things don’t always work out in real life the way they should on paper.

UCLA is the only other team with a slim chance of winning the crown. But let’s say they sweep their remaining 9 games and end up 23-7. For the Bruins to win, OSU would have to finish no better than 5-4 and Oregon no better than 3-3. One scenario that would work for this to happen is if OSU were to sweep the Ducks but lose their other two series. There are others, but the likelihood of both Beaver State teams doing that poorly coupled with a three-weekend sweep from UCLA is not very high. In fact, the likelihood of UCLA even getting to second place is not that high right now. It’s Beavers versus Ducks.

This week’s games
OSU at Stan
Ariz at UCLA
ASU at Cal
WSU at USC
Utah at UW
Ore at XOS (Ohio State)

An example ballot would look like this:
OSU 2-1
Ariz 2-1
Cal 2-1
WSU 3-0
Utah 3-0
XOS 2-1


Week 12 Series

  • Last week it looked like most people were beginning to believe that Stanford was overrated the whole season, but they managed to best ASU 2 of 3 in Tempe and now bring some momentum home with a few weeks to salvage their postseason hopes. They face the red-hot Beavers, coming off their 8th consecutive conference win. Statistically, the Beavers are better than Stanford in every major category: Batting (4th vs. 6th), pitching (1st vs. 4th), and fielding (7th vs. 8th). Looking closer at the pitching, OSU’s three starters (not to mention the entire staff) are all under 2.00 ERA and all three are in the top six in the conference. Friday night’s matchup features #4 Mark Appel vs. #6 Matt Boyd.
  • Arizona’s embarrassment last week at the hands of the Huskies just highlights how hot and cold this team is. Their hopes of playing in the postseason require a good showing against their last three opponents. Against UCLA, ti will be a classic case of good hitting facing good pitching. The Wildcats are still tops in the BA, with a team average .305. UCLA is next to last with .249. The teams are almost the exact opposite in ERA: UCLA’s 2.72 (2nd) to Arizona’s 4.24 (9th).
  • Arizona State did not fare well against Stanford last week, but they expect a better result against the Cardinal’s Bay Area rival in Berkeley. ASU is better in batting (2nd) and pitching (6th) than Cal (9th and 10th).
  • The only reason Wazzu vs. USC is not the last series this week is my contention that these two teams are not as bad as they really are. Okay, they really are...but they’re not really that bad. And they’re really close in their badness and either team could look really good in this series. And it should be close. Got it? Both teams are in the upper half in batting and lower half in pitching. With a lot of offense, anything can happen.
  • Earlier in the year, this would have been easily the least compelling matchup, a series between the last-place and next-to-last place teams. But UW has shown some moxie in their sucky season, and Utah does have some good wins on their resume, in addition to some underappreciated players. Will anyone be surprised by a victory, even a convincing sweep, from either team? Probably not, and that’s a shame. UW has the edge over Utah in all three major categories, but the gap is not great in any of them. The Huskies have to get another bonus from playing in Seattle, where they are 8-8 overall and 5-4 in conference.
  • The Ducks fly eastward to take on another OSU in this week’s noncon series. Ohio State is a pretty good Big Ten team. At 33-15 and in second play in conference, Ohio State has a surprisingly decent ISR of 61 and an even better RPI of 51. The Buckeyes are 15-5 at home, but Oregon is 18-6 on the road. Statistically, tOSU has a .270 team batting average compared to Oregon’s .268, so a virtual tie. If the Buckeyes were in the Pac-12, their team ERA of 3.21 would be 4th best in the conference, compared to number 3 Oregon’s 2.78. This series looks like it could be pretty good. Expect the Big Ten team, hungry for some respect and not able to count on a second-place finish in conference as enough to make the postseason, to fight really hard against a highly ranked Pac-12 team for the RPI boost that would give them.

edited by Dodger Matt on 5/9/2013
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5/8/2013 9:42:38 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Thanks for working that out for us. All about getting as far as you can go in the post season. Pac crown would be oh so sweet, but all about jockeying for the best possible matchups. That happens by winning games. Go Ducks!
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5/8/2013 9:44:55 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1217
Wow...couple of tough games to call. The WSU/USC and Utah/UW games could really go either way. Well, since I am sitting near the bottom in the rankings (anything under RD HAS to be near the bottom) I'm going to take some chances this week.

OSU 3-0 The Beavs are hitting their stride.
UCLA 2-1 Arizona has imploded at the wrong time
ASU 3-0 Cal has nothing left in the bag
WSU 2-1 Toss up here
UW 3-0 UW takes all 3 at home
ZOS 2-1 The other OSU is going to give the uglies fits all weekend.
edited by Florida Beaver on 5/8/2013
edited by Florida Beaver on 5/8/2013
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5/8/2013 10:14:51 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Florida Beaver wrote:
Wow...couple of tough games to call. The WSU/USC and Utah/UW games could really go either way. Well, since I am sitting near the bottom in the rankings (anything under RD HAS to be near the bottom) I'm going to take some chances this week.

OSU 3-0 The Beavs are hitting their stride.
UCLA 2-1 Arizona has imploded at the wrong time
ASU 3-0 Cal has nothing left in the bag
WSU 2-1 Toss up here
UW 3-0 UW takes all 3 at home
ZOS 2-1 The other OSU is going to give the uglies fits all weekend.
edited by Florida Beaver on 5/8/2013
edited by Florida Beaver on 5/8/2013

Hey- I resent that. My crafty picks have resulted in bottom feeder to middle of the pack. Don't get desperate. Voting for the ducks will reward you.
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5/8/2013 10:17:22 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Riverduck wrote:
Florida Beaver wrote:
Wow...couple of tough games to call. The WSU/USC and Utah/UW games could really go either way. Well, since I am sitting near the bottom in the rankings (anything under RD HAS to be near the bottom) I'm going to take some chances this week.

OSU 3-0 The Beavs are hitting their stride.
UCLA 2-1 Arizona has imploded at the wrong time
ASU 3-0 Cal has nothing left in the bag
WSU 2-1 Toss up here
UW 3-0 UW takes all 3 at home
ZOS 2-1 The other OSU is going to give the uglies fits all weekend.
edited by Florida Beaver on 5/8/2013
edited by Florida Beaver on 5/8/2013

Hey- I resent that. My crafty picks have resulted in bottom feeder to middle of the pack. Don't get desperate. Voting for the ducks will reward you.

Has Ohio State played vandy, or CSF, or swept any team in in their conference, let alone 5.. read it 5 like the ducks? Heck the beavs have not even swept five this year. Sticking with the ducks. 3-0.. And picking Stanford 2-1
edited by Riverduck on 5/8/2013
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5/8/2013 10:33:40 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1217
Riverduck wrote:
Riverduck wrote:
Florida Beaver wrote:
Wow...couple of tough games to call. The WSU/USC and Utah/UW games could really go either way. Well, since I am sitting near the bottom in the rankings (anything under RD HAS to be near the bottom) I'm going to take some chances this week.

OSU 3-0 The Beavs are hitting their stride.
UCLA 2-1 Arizona has imploded at the wrong time
ASU 3-0 Cal has nothing left in the bag
WSU 2-1 Toss up here
UW 3-0 UW takes all 3 at home
ZOS 2-1 The other OSU is going to give the uglies fits all weekend.
edited by Florida Beaver on 5/8/2013
edited by Florida Beaver on 5/8/2013

Hey- I resent that. My crafty picks have resulted in bottom feeder to middle of the pack. Don't get desperate. Voting for the ducks will reward you.

Has Ohio State played vandy, or CSF, or swept any team in in their conference, let alone 5.. read it 5 like the ducks? Heck the beavs have not even swept five this year. Sticking with the ducks. 3-0.. And picking Stanford 2-1
edited by Riverduck on 5/8/2013



Yeah. just keep right on sitting on your laurels.
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5/8/2013 10:37:37 PM

hogfan4life
hogfan4life
Posts: 305
OSU 2-1
UCLA 2-1
ASU 3-0
USC 2-1
UW 2-1
Ore 2-1
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5/8/2013 11:24:13 PM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 611
OSU 2-1 Boyd and Appel will have a pitchers duel for the ages but the cards come out on top friday, then Moore and Wetzler shut them down sat and sunday to take the series.
UCLA 2-1 Arizona just doesnt have the pitching to keep up with UCLA: good pitching beats good hitting 9 times out of 10

ASU 3-0 Devils are PISSED and Cal is giving up, hard to believe they were in Omaha just 2 years ago

USC 2-1 in a tossup slight edge to home team, in Pullman would go other way

Utah 2-1 yes I know its in Husky ballpark, and the Huskies have won series' against both the beavs and zona, but this is a hunch, the huskies are too inconsistent IMO and drop one this week

Ore 2-1 I said in a previous post that I think the Ducks could take 2 of 3 from Tosu and I stick with that, Duckies will represent the pac well.

also BTW who was the official winner from last week? during all the bruhaha with the site being down if that ever got posted it got lost?

--
GO BEAVS!
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5/9/2013 12:14:53 AM

beaverstate69
beaverstate69
Posts: 23
OSU 2-1
UCLA 2-1
ASU 3-0
WSU 2-1
UW 2-1
Ore 2-1
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5/9/2013 9:21:48 AM

YellowlabOSU
YellowlabOSU
Posts: 34
OSU 2-1
UCLA 2-1
ASU 2-1
WSU 2-1
UW 2-1
Ore 3-0

Boring picks, I know :\
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5/9/2013 11:05:01 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Stan 2-1
Ucla 2-1
Asu 2-1
Wsu 2-1
Uw-2-1
Ore 3-0
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5/9/2013 11:15:11 AM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 1111
OSU 3-0
UCLA 2-1
ASU 2-1
USC 2-1
UW 2-1
ZOS 2-1
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5/9/2013 11:36:08 AM

JCR
JCR
Posts: 12
OSU 2-1
UCLA 3-0
ASU 3-0
USC 2-1
UTAH 2-1
ORE 3-0
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5/9/2013 4:34:41 PM

WildCard85
WildCard85
Posts: 78
Stan 2-1
UCLA 2-1
ASU 2-1
USC 2-1
UW 2-1
Ore 2-1

GO CARDINAL !!
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5/9/2013 5:26:26 PM

OregonG20
OregonG20
Posts: 32
OSU 2-1
UCLA 2-1
ASU 3-0
WSU 2-1
UW 2-1
UO 2-1
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5/9/2013 5:33:40 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1217
OpihiMan wrote:
OSU 3-0
UCLA 2-1
ASU 2-1
USC 2-1
UW 2-1
ZOS 2-1


I see you picked the same 2 OSUs to win I did. Smart man! I knew I liked you for some reason.
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5/9/2013 5:57:50 PM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 1111
It could just be that we both LOVE Beaver(s)



Florida Beaver wrote:
OpihiMan wrote:
OSU 3-0
UCLA 2-1
ASU 2-1
USC 2-1
UW 2-1
ZOS 2-1


I see you picked the same 2 OSUs to win I did. Smart man! I knew I liked you for some reason.
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5/9/2013 6:25:35 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
WildCard85 wrote:
Stan 2-1
UCLA 2-1
ASU 2-1
USC 2-1
UW 2-1
Ore 2-1

GO CARDINAL !!

Great Picks WildCard..
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5/9/2013 7:55:30 PM

UOsportsguy
UOsportsguy
Posts: 16
OSU 2-1
UCLA 3-0
ASU 3-0
USC 2-1
UW 2-1
ORE 3-0
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5/9/2013 8:18:55 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
This could be glory or disaster for me. Here are my picks:
OSU 3-0
UCLA 2-1
ASU 3-0
USC 2-1
UW 2-1
Ore 3-0
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