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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » Pac-12 predictions: 2013 Week 10

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4/16/2013 10:48:04 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
We’re officially at the halfway mark in conference play. Six teams have played 15 games; the other five have played 12. We should probably pause and take a “where we at” introspective after this weekend.

This week’s games (ISR/RPI)
  • 3rd UCLA (12/23) at 2nd Ore (6/5)
  • 6th Ariz (35/72) at 4th Stan (53/120)
  • 7th WSU (85/106) at 9th Cal (86/89)
  • 8th USC (110/124) at 10th Utah (105/104)
  • 1st OSU (2/1) at 11th UW (152/142)
  • XV [Valparaiso] (221/236) at 5th ASU (10/9)
An example ballot would look like this:

Ore 2-1
Stan 2-1
WSU 2-1
Utah 3-0
OSU 3-0
XV 2-1


Week 10 Series
  • UCLA visits Eugene to take on the red-hot Ducks in the top series this week, a contest between the #3 and #2 teams. The Ducks are just percentage points behind the Beavers and even bested them in Corvallis last week in a nonconference game. They are doing it with the usual pitching and defense, but their offense has come alive recently, especially the bat of Scott Heineman. In conference-only games, the Ducks are second in batting average at .308, one point behind Stanford, and tops in runs scored. At number two in team ERA, just behind, UCLA has a pretty good one-two punch with Adam Plutko and Nick Vander Tuig on the mound, 14/100s of a run better than 3rd place Oregon. So the Ducks hold the advantage or are tied in most categories, plus they are playing at home.
  • The second best series this week has two teams that are playing well—#5t Arizona at #4 Stanford—but neither has played as well as preseason expectations. Arizona started out horribly, suffering two sweeps at the hands of the Beaver State schools, but they have righted the ship and are now tied with ASU for 5th in the conference with an 8-7 record. Stanford is a half-game ahead at 7-5, and sitting atop the conference-only batting averages. UA is third. In conference-only pitching, Arizona has a slight edge: 5th place at 3.92 vs. 6th place at 4.04.
  • Looking at the ISRs, Wazzu at Cal appears to be much closer match than the RPI suggests. My gut tells me (again) that the ISR is more accurate, as I have a hard time believing Cal is better than Wazzu. In conference-only hitting, Cal is two points higher (.265 to .263). I pitching, Wazzu’s conference ERA is better (4.54 to Cal’s conference-worst 5.68.) I’m not sure Cal even gets an edge for playing at home. In conference home games they are 1-5; Wazzu is 3-3 on the road.
  • The pairing of 8th place USC and 10th place Utah probably doesn’t get a lot of baseball fans excited, but this should be a decent series. Utah has been swept three times so far, by Arizona and OSU, and by Cal at home. But they won their other two series—on the road at Stanford and at home against Wazzu. USC has only won one series, against Cal at home, but they have not been swept yet. USC has an edge in batting, but the two teams’ pitching is even.
  • OSU visiting UW should be the blowout special but for two reasons: UW always plays the Beavers tough, no matter how bad they suck, and this year they’ve shown grittiness dwelling in the cellar. And the other reason is ASU is playing the last-place team in the Horizon League team. This is only the Huskies’ second home conference series. The first one they won, beating USC 2-1. Because OSU has played some of the better-pitching schools early, their conference batting average is not very high: 9th at .256 compared to UW’s 10th place .241. But the Beavers’ pitching is excellent: tops with a 1.68 ERA, versus UW’s 4th place 3.90.
  • It’s a wonder the Horizon League, down to five schools and as sucky a D1 conference as there is, still gets an autobid to the postseason. Valpo is last with a 13-20 overall and 4-8 conference record. (Okay, Boyd has them as #22 out of 32 conferences, so there are ten worse, but that is still pretty bad.) This should be an easy sweep, but really bad teams have come into the Copper State in the last couple years and taken one or two from the two Arizona schools the last couple years. To quote George Carlin: Hey! This could happen!
Interesting note: I unintentionally used a capital “S” instead of a capital “D” in that first sentence in the series breakdowns. Those letters are right next to each, after all. Just noticed it in time. Big Grin
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4/17/2013 12:08:47 AM

beaverstate69
beaverstate69
Posts: 23
Ore 2-1
Stan 2-1
WSU 2-1
Utah 2-1
OSU 2-1
ASU 3-0



Hate picking OSU to lose a game in this series but like you said, Huskies are a tough out.
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4/17/2013 1:46:57 AM

SouthernBeaver
SouthernBeaver
Posts: 200
Ore 2-1
Ariz 2-1
WSU 2-1
Utah 2-1
OSU 3-0
ASU 3-0
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4/17/2013 2:37:30 AM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1216
Ore 2-1 (gotta beavlieve UCLA will take at least 1 game)
Stan 2-1 Home field has the advantage here.
WSU 3-0 Not even close. Cal has just gone south for the year
Utah 3-0 USC will not get it done this week. They beat Cal which says a lot about Cal's chance this week.
OSU 3-0 UW doesn't have anyone's number this year except USC's. And definitely not the Beavs
ASU 3-0 No brainer (or as it is more commonly referred to in the Northwest, a No ducker)
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4/17/2013 6:59:52 AM

OregonStHomer
OregonStHomer
Posts: 53
Ore 2-1
Ariz 2-1
WSU 2-1
USC 2-1
OSU 3-0
ASU 3-0

Utah always does me wrong, well see if that stays true, also I feel OSU has another sweep in em this week.
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4/17/2013 8:08:37 AM

YellowlabOSU
YellowlabOSU
Posts: 34
UCLA 2-1
Arizona 2-1
WSU 2-1
USC 2-1
OSU 3-0
ASU 3-0
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4/17/2013 9:18:54 AM

WildCard85
WildCard85
Posts: 78
Ore 2-1
Stan 3-0 (ok, may be wishful thinking ?)
WSU 2-1
Utah 2-1
OSU 2-1
ASU 3-0

GO CARDINAL !
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4/17/2013 11:15:12 AM

OregonG20
OregonG20
Posts: 32
Ore 2-1
Stan 2-1
Cal 2-1
Utah 2-1
OSU 3-0
ASU 3-0
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4/17/2013 11:24:12 AM

hogfan4life
hogfan4life
Posts: 305
Ore 2-1
Ariz 2-1
Cal 2-1
USC 2-1
OSU 3-0
ASU 2-1
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4/17/2013 9:02:01 PM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 1111
UCLA 2-1
Ariz 2-1
Cal 2-1
Utah 2-1
OSU 3-0
ASU 3-0
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4/17/2013 9:10:07 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1458
Call me stupid, but here I go. Fred, do you have the ____ to join me in my quest for self destruction? Perhaps you could run the 3-0 trend, but wiht different teams. Come on. St. Pauli is on the line I can have a six-pack delivered on ice.

UCLA 3-0
Ariz 3-0
Cal 3-0
Utah 3-0
OSU 3-0
ASU 3-0
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4/18/2013 7:08:12 AM

ASU74
ASU74
Posts: 1037
BeaverBob wrote:
Call me stupid, but here I go. Fred, do you have the ____ to join me in my quest for self destruction? Perhaps you could run the 3-0 trend, but wiht different teams. Come on. St. Pauli is on the line I can have a six-pack delivered on ice.

UCLA 3-0
Ariz 3-0
Cal 3-0
Utah 3-0
OSU 3-0
ASU 3-0


BB
I'd like to be your wing man on this one, but I've got to fly in a different direction. Ya know it has to hurt cause not takin' ya up on St Pauli delivered at my door...on ice no less...well it is just against my nature.

Ore 2-1
Ariz 2-1
WSU 2-1
Utah 2-1
OSU 3-0
ASU 3-0

Any one who REALLY wants to win this week....the formula is easy......whatever I picked, pick the opposite.
Educated

--
Go Devils !!
Fork Off
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4/18/2013 7:30:06 AM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 611
Ore 2-1 Duckies and Beavs are proving they are the class of the pac right now, but UCLA will not go quietly into that good night.

Stan 2-1 Would be other way if at arizona, but giving home team slight edge

WSU 2-1 both wazzou and cal are giving us fits, winning games they shouldnt win, and losing games they should cougs win a wild wacky weekend

Utah 2-1 Utah has not swept a series yet in all their losses have been swept. USC has not been swept this season despite several series loss's that trend continues this week

OSU 3-0 I feel much better about a sweep after taking care of business against Utah and Portland, also it would be nice to be totally ahead of the duckies in the standings and not just on percentage points.

ASU 3-0 mmmm cupcakes......

--
GO BEAVS!
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4/18/2013 10:13:06 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Ore 2-1
Ariz 2-1
WSU 2-1
USC 2-1
OSU 2-1
ASU 3-0
edited by Riverduck on 4/18/2013
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4/18/2013 10:39:32 AM

UOsportsguy
UOsportsguy
Posts: 16
Ore 2-1
Ariz 2-1
Cal 2-1
Utah 2-1
Osu 3-0
Asu 3-0
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4/18/2013 1:53:20 PM

Rowdy
Rowdy
Posts: 87
Ucla 2-1
Ariz 2-1
WSU 3-0
Utah 2-1
OSU 3-0
ASU 3-0
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4/18/2013 3:57:36 PM

JCR
JCR
Posts: 12
ORE 2-1
ARIZ 2-1
WSU 2-1
UTAH 2-1
OSU 3-0
ASU 3-0
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4/18/2013 9:02:03 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Ore 2-1
Ariz 2-1
WSU 2-1
USC 2-1
OSU 3-0
ASU 3-0

Same picks as OregonStateHomer, and same reservation about USC over Utah. I think the Trojans take games 1 and 3, but if they lose game 1 (and they very well could), then Utah takes 2 games.
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4/18/2013 11:48:28 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Pick analysis
  • We have two unanimous picks: ASU 17-0 (16 sweeps) over Valpo, and OSU 17-0 (14 sweeps) over UW.
  • Oregon is a 13-4 favorite over UCLA, but UCLA has one sweep vote among their 4.
  • The remaining three series are all 12-5 picks:
  • Utah 12-5 (2 sweeps) over USC; Wazzu is 12-5 (2 sweeps) over Cal, but Cal gets one sweep.
  • The tightest series is Arizona 12-5 over Stanford, with each team getting one sweep vote.
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4/19/2013 1:23:20 AM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1216
We're getting a fairly consistent group every week. Nice! Must be the great work of DM and borgguy
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