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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » Pac-12 predictions: 2013 Week 9

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4/10/2013 12:55:16 AM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
This is what I call a somewhat down week, as four of the six series appear (on paper) to be mismatches. But that could provide for some higher scores, for those willing to take chances.

This week’s games (ISRs)
  • 53 Ariz at 78 WSU
  • 9 Ore at 76 Cal
  • 12 ASU at 117 USC
  • 101 Utah at 1 OSU
  • 162 UW at 49 Stan
  • 52 XLM (Loyola Marymount) at 16 UCLA
An example ballot would look like this:

Ariz 2-1
Ore 2-1
USC 2-1
OSU 3-0
Stan 3-0
XLM 2-1


Week 9 Series
  • The top series features two of the conference’s least predictable clubs, the 5th place feast-or-famine Wildcats and the 7th place beat-the-tough-team, lose-to-the-easy-team Cougars. Both of these clubs have good bats (#2 and #1 in batting average respectively) and middling arms (5th and 7th). Wazzu did not fare well against a Utah team that has some reasonably good pitching (6th). Arizona’s pitching is slightly better than the Utes’ in team ERA. Arizona is rated higher in ISR than Wazzu, but the gap in their ISRs is the smallest of any series this week, and Wazzu is at home, which makes this the closest series. At the exact middle of the Pac-12 standings, this series could be a springboard or a postseason death knell for either team.
  • The next closest series, and it’s not that close, has Oregon traveling to Berkeley to take on the tanking Cal Bears. Cal started conference play at 4-0, then lost 4 straight conference games and 7 of their last 8. The Ducks, at 9-3, are second only to the Beavers in conference winning percentage. Both teams are in the lower middle of the pack in batting, but Oregon has a decided advantage over Cal in terms of pitching and defense.
  • Despite the disparity in ISRs, the Sun Devils are only a game ahead of the Trojans in the standings, and USC has not been swept yet, despite losing three series so far. They’ve taken solo games from Stanford and Oregon, and they’re playing at home. The teams are relatively close offensively, although ASU has the edge i batting and slugging. Both teams have struggled in terms of pitching, but ASU again gets the edge with couple of pretty good arms Friday and Saturday, and USC is at the bottom of the league in team ERA with a 4.93.
  • After getting swept by Cal to open league play then again by Arizona two weeks later, Utah has surprised a number of fans recently by also taking series from Stanford (on the road) and Wazzu last week at home. Oregon State’s pitching is better than anything Utah has faced this season, and Utah’s batting is in a dead last tie with the Huskies, so they better hope for pitching and fielding mistakes from the Beavers if they expect any chance of turning that trick this weekend. Oregon State will probably not let the Utes sneak up on them.
  • At 2-7 in conference and 8-22 overall, last place Washington is barely over the Mendoza line as a team in winning percentage. But they played well on the road against Pepperdine last week, winning the first game and losing the second in 11 innings. And Stanford lost at home to Utah a couple weeks back, so anything is possible. That said, this is about as unequal a match as the Utah/OSU series.
  • The nonconference series looks like the second closest matchup in terms of ISR spreads. Loyola Marymount is 17-15 overall and in third place in the WCC. They’ve beaten Utah (2 of 3), Oregon (1 of 3), Oklahoma State (1 of 3, though the two losses were one-run games), Fullerton (1 of 1), San Diego (2 of 3), and Gonzaga (2 of 3). So they have a number of quality wins. Coming off back-to-back series losses to ASU and OSU, UCLA is 3-5 over its last 8 games and looking for a rebound.
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4/12/2013 6:45:45 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
I was tricked, sitting 25 rows up 3rd base line. Dodgers.. Wow
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4/12/2013 7:35:05 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Kershaw.. Wow
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4/13/2013 10:20:05 AM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 611
Standings after Day 1: both Beaver Bob and ASU74 are going for broke and for today lead the pack with 33 possible points still, but i full expect those scores to come crashing back to earth. with several people making the same picks there is a lot of bunching together. Hogfan4life who is playing it safe takes up the cellar but has the highest level of fewest points possible so i fully expect him to climb back up the standings. There is some slight skewing in the scores due to Ariz/WSU not being done yet.


T1)Asu74 33 4

BeaverBob 33 4

3)UOsportsguy 30 7

T4)WildCard85 29 6

SouthernBeaver 29 6

6)OpihiMan 29 5

T7)Beaverstate69 28 8

Rowdy 28 8

YellowlabOSU 28 8

DodgerMatt 28 8

T11)Florida Beaver 27 7

Borgguy 27 7

T13)OregonG20 26 9

Riverduck 26 9

JCR 26 9

16)OregonStHomer 25 8

17)Hogfan4life 24 10

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GO BEAVS!
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4/14/2013 10:47:21 AM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 611
For ASU and BB to win they need all the favorites to win their games today, UOsports guy needs all the favorites to win, but UCLA to lose in order to win. in fact after crunching the numbers the most important game standings wise today is the UCLA game. as 14 people need the bruins to LOSE in order to get a max score. 10 people need the Duckies to lose (including RD and OregonG20). Beaverstate69 is the only person who wants WSU to win today

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GO BEAVS!
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4/14/2013 11:31:34 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1216
Riverduck wrote:
Oregon should get a PAC player of the week.



Why? I think a second 2 hit complete game shutout for a 7-1 Matt Boyd and the hitting of a 6 for 7 run for Beau Day calls for both pitcher and player for Oregon State. What is your case for PAC player, RD?
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4/16/2013 3:22:23 PM

SouthernBeaver
SouthernBeaver
Posts: 200
lol funny... kind of like saying, going into the CWS "We've got a few games coming up. If we win those, everyone else is forgotten." That is usually the case when your team defies the odds and sweeps everyone...
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