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College  | Story  | 6/17/2016

2016 College World Series Preview

Patrick Ebert      Mike Rooney     
Photo: OSU Athletics




Perfect Game College Baseball on SiriusXM

SiriusXM’s Braden Gall and Perfect Game’s Mike Rooney will be in Omaha, Neb., for the first four days of the 2016 College World Series. There will be several programs broadcast during this time, including the day before to preview the event, all of which can be access by tuning in to SiriusXM College Sports, channel 84.

Here’s the schedule of the programming (all times Central):

Friday, June 17: 6:00-9:00 p.m.
Saturday, June 18: 11:00 a.m. - 1:40 p.m. and 5:00-6:40 p.m.
Sunday, June 19: 11:00 a.m. - 1:40 p.m. and 5:00-6:40 p.m.
Monday, June 20: 11:00 a.m. - 12:40 p.m. and 5:00-5:40 p.m.
Tuesday, June 21: 2:00-3:40 p.m.


Bracket 1

Oklahoma State vs. UC Santa Barbara
Saturday, June 18, 2:00 p.m. CT

Miami vs. Arizona
Saturday, June 18, 7:00 p.m. CT

• The winners of the two games will play on Monday, June 20 at 6:00 p.m. CT.
• The losers of the two games will play in an elimination game on Monday, June 20 at 1:00 p.m. CT.

Preseason/Pre-Postseason rank in parenthesis


Oklahoma State – 41-20 (7/16)

Preseason Prognostication:
Although there may not be an offensive explosion like the ones Pete Incaviglia and Robin Ventura provided in the mid-1980s, the Oklahoma State offense should have no problem scoring runs. The core of the offense that includes outfielders Garrett McCain and Ryan Sluder, first baseman Dustin Williams, designated hitter Conor Costello as well as senior shortstop Donnie Walton all return, and will be reinforced by junior college transfers Collin Theroux and Garrett Benge.
Garrett Williams (OSU Athletics)
How They Got To Omaha:
Won Clemson Regional (3-0)
Won Columbia Super Regional (2-0)

Why They Got To Omaha:
This was the preseason No. 7 ranked team and this group faced a bunch of adversity during the season. The Cowboys suffered four straight walkoff losses in February and then had a four-game home losing streak around the midpoint of the season. Everything started to click in Clemson though and Oklahoma State's pitching has carried the day. The rotation of Thomas Hatch, one-time closer Tyler Buffett and freshman Jensen Elliott has been outstanding.

Who's Hot:
Thomas Hatch and Tyler Buffett have each turned in two excellent starts so far in the postseason. Oft-injured Conor Costello has been the x-factor and he has lengthened what had been a relatively short lineup. Jon Littell also caught fire in the Regional and the bottom of this order has big upside with Ryan Sluder and Dustin Williams also down there.

Concerns:
Oklahoma State will go as far as this offense will take them. The Cowboys have pitched and defended with great proficiency all year but the offense has come and gone. Donnie Walton has cooled off in the NCAA Tournament and he will need to get going again if this group is going to make a deep run.

Marquee Matchup:
Thomas Hatch's high-velocity sinker is a good matchup for anyone but volatile lefthander Garrett Williams is an interesting piece for Josh Holliday. Williams could neutralize slugger Austin Bush but he is very walk-prone which is key to the Gauchos offense. The Cowboys excellent defense, led by a veteran middle infield, could serve to stymie the UCSB "little game." The key to this series appears to be the Cowboys lineup's ability to score versus a UCSB team that pitches really well and defends at an extremely high level.

Draft Impact:
Players taken in the 2016 MLB Draft (round, team)

• Thomas Hatch (3, Cubs)
• Donnie Walton (5, Mariners)
• Remey Reed (6, Marlins)
• Garrett Williams (7, Giants)
• Tyler Buffet (7, Astros)
• Trey Cobb (12, Cubs)
• J.R. Davis (15, Cardinals)
• Collin Theroux (32, Athletics)
• Conor Costello (32, Dodgers)
• Dustin Williams (36, Pirates)


UC Santa Barbara – 42-18-1 (NR/NR)

Preseason Prognostication:
Pitching will again be the calling card for the Gauchos and junior ace Shane Bieber is one of the better strike throwers in the country … Keep an eye on freshman Noah Davis who pairs a low-90s fastball with two wipeout secondaries and he can be dominant when throwing consistent strikes.
Shane Bieber (UCSB Athletics)
How They Got To Omaha: 
Won Nashville Regional (3-0)
Won Louisville Super Regional (2-0)

Why They Got To Omaha:
The Gauchos are a vintage "West Coast" team with a 6-foot-6, 265-pound wrinkle named Austin Bush thrown in. This team pitches at a high level and defends at an even higher level. Shortstop Clay Fisher is probably the best defensive shortstop in America that you've not heard of yet. This opportunistic offense screams west coast as well with a pedestrian team batting average of .262 that is augmented by more than 91 hit-by-pitches, good for eighth in the country. UCSB hit a rough patch in the middle of the season as injuries to Noah Davis and Ryan Clark had a big impact. These Argentine Cowboys get better each day as the health of Davis, Clark – and arms like James Carter and Justin Kelly – continues to improve as we move further into June.

Who's Hot:
Shane Bieber threw a gem against a very intimidating Louisville lineup and Kyle Nelson continues to be dominant out of the bullpen. Fifth-year senior lefthander Justin Kelly was a candidate for Regional MVP and his innings have created critical depth for this staff. Behemoth first baseman Austin Bush hit a home run in each of the Gauchos' first four NCAA Tournament games and he is this team's main power threat.

Concerns:
The Gauchos offense is the main concern. USCB really needs you to help them with free passes as they struggle to create opportunities on their own. Additionally, they have struggled versus lefties since lefthanded hitters Andrew Calica, J.J. Muno and Austin Bush are the most critical bats in this lineup.

Marquee Matchup:
Shane Bieber appears to be a good matchup against a very righthanded Cowboy lineup.  On the flip side, Oklahoma State's pitching staff is extremely righthanded so that should play well for the Gauchos' critical lefthanded trio of Calica, Muno and Bush. One concern is that Oklahoma State plays a west coast style as well and they are an excellent run prevention outfit, similar to many of the Big West teams. UCSB finished just 13-11 in the Big West and here is the question: was that a style of play issue or the result of several key injuries during conference play?

Draft Impact:
Players taken in the 2016 MLB Draft (round, team)

• Shane Bieber (4, Indians)
• Andrew Calica (11, Indians)
• James Carter (21, Dodgers)
• Trevor Bettencourt (25, Phillies)
• Justin Kelly (33, Angels)


Miami – 50-12 (11/3)

Preseason Prognostication:
The Hurricanes had no problem scoring runs last spring, and while David Thompson and his 17 home runs won’t be returning to Coral Cables, Zack Collins will be and is one of the most dangerous hitters in college baseball.
Willie Abreu (Richard Lewis/Miami Athletics)
How They Got To Omaha:
Won Coral Gables Regional (3-0)
Won Coral Gables Super Regional (2-1)

Why They Got To Omaha:
The Hurricanes took care of business at home, sweeping their three Regional opponents and taking two of three from Boston College in the Super Regional round to advance. When one of their bigger bats isn’t getting the job done in any certain game another seems to step up to provide the much-needed big hit.

Who’s Hot:
Miami pounded out 11, 11 and 14 base hits in their three games against Boston College, and Edgar Michelangeli had nine RBI in those three games, with seven of them coming in a huge 3-for-3 performance in the third and deciding game in which he blasted a three-run shot and a grand slam. Zack Collins hit a pair of home runs and reached base six other times via a free pass. Willie Abreu had a pair of three-hit games during Super Regionals and both Brandon Lopez and Johnny Ruiz enjoyed three-hit performances as well.

Concerns:
Pitching is what ultimately ended Miami’s time in Omaha a year ago and continues to be a weakness. Head Coach Jim Morris has done a really good job managing the arms he does have at his disposal, but finding a reliable starter past Danny Garcia and Michael Mediavilla – not to mention a reliever past proven closer Bryan Garcia – is going to be key to how far they advance this year.

Marquee Matchup:
Arizona could prove to be a fortuitous opening game draw for the Hurricanes, although Miami needs to make sure not to look past the Wildcats who are arguably the most opportunistic team among the eight programs in Omaha. Should Miami advance winning their second game would be a huge boon, getting a few days off as a result which would allow them to re-load their pitching staff. However, that will no easy task against whoever they would play between either Oklahoma State or UC Santa Barbara, a pair of staffs that have shut down Clemson and South Carolina (Oklahoma State) as well as the No. 2 overall seed in Louisville (UCSB) on the road.

Draft Impact:
Players taken in the 2016 MLB Draft (round, team)

• Zack Collins (1, White Sox)
• Willie Abreu (6, Rockies)
• Bryan Garcia (6, Tigers)
• Brandon Lopez (10, Twins)
• Danny Garcia (15, Mariners)
• Jacob Heyward (18, Giants)
• Johnny Ruiz (28, Astros)


Arizona – 44-21 (NR/NR)

Preseason Prognostication:
Jay Johnson takes over in Tucson and he and his hard-working coaching staff are already making an impact on the recruiting trail … (Bobby) Dalbec, who features a low-90s sinker, will pitch significant innings but mostly in a high leverage relief role when possible.
Bobby Dalbec (Arizona Athletics)
How They Got To Omaha:
Won Lafayette Regional (4-1)
Won Starkville Super Regional (2-0)

Why They Got To Omaha:
Arizona is led by four key seniors and this seemingly under-talented team has a knack for winning. Cody Ramer and Ryan Aguilar are seniors who made the unusual transition from outfield to infield and that has propelled the Wildcats to become one of the best defensive teams left in the field. Zach Gibbons is a hit machine and his batting average is above .300 for the fourth straight year. Nathan Bannister has emerged out of nowhere in his final season and his two starts in the Regional round saved the season. Finally, Bobby Dalbec has been able to compartmentalize a very rough offensive season in his draft year and he has been a rock on the mound.

Who's Hot:
Freshmen Alfonso Rivas and Cesar Salazar have been big offensive contributors down the stretch. Zach Gibbons seemingly never stops hitting and Ryan Aguilar has a flair for the dramatic. Nathan Bannister has three strong starts to his credit in the NCAA Tournament thus far. Bobby Dalbec has been a star on the mound and his offense has ticked up recently. Cameron Ming appears to be on a roll at the back of the bullpen.

Concerns:
This team seems to lack thunder in the middle of the order since Dalbec has had a down year and Aguilar lacks the physicality to provide consistent power. Jay Johnson offsets that by running a high-octane, high-pressure offense that this roster executes beautifully. Arizona has spent most of the year piecing together a very thin pitching staff yet things seem to be coming together at just the right time. Kevin Ginkel provided depth in the Regional round and he is the best pure arm on the staff.

Marquee Matchup:
Whereas Miami is a momentum offense, Arizona tends to prefer a one-at-a-time west coast style. The Wildcats offer a diverse offense though and it is more complex than your standard sacrifice bunt based strategy. When Arizona gets a quality start, they usually win. While the Wildcats' front-end pitching has been much improved down the stretch, Miami is the most dynamic offense they will have faced this year outside of Mississippi State.

Draft Impact:
Players taken in the 2016 MLB Draft (round, team)

• Bobby Dalbec (4, Red Sox)
• Zach Gibbons (17, Angels)
• Cody Ramer (19, Angels)
• Kevin Ginkel (22, Diamondbacks)
• Trey Griffey (24, Mariners)
• Nathan Bannister (28, Mariners)
• Ryan Aguilar (31, Brewers)



Bracket 2

Texas Tech vs. Texas Christian
Sunday, June 19, 2:00 p.m. CT

Florida vs. Coastal Carolina
Sunday, June 19, 7:00 p.m. CT

• The winners of the two games will play on Tuesday, June 21 at 8:00 p.m. CT.
• The losers of the two games will play in an elimination game on Tuesday, June 21 at 4:00 p.m. CT.

Preseason/Pre-Postseason rank in parenthesis


Texas Tech – 46-18 (25/9)

Preseason Prognostication:
Big things were expected out of first baseman Eric Gutierrez and outfielder Tyler Neslony for the 2015 season, which was a big reason Texas Tech opened last year as Perfect Game’s 12th-ranked team. Throw in the return of another senior, Corey Raley, as well as sophomore outfielder Tanner Gardner, who enjoyed a big summer, and you have reason to believe Texas Tech may pick up where they left off after their 45-21 2014 season.
Tyler Neslony (Texas Tech))
How They Got To Omaha:
Won Lubbock Regional (3-1)
Won Lubbock Super Regional (2-1)

Why They Got To Omaha:
The Red Raiders feature an experienced position player group, several of whom were part of the 2014 CWS team, and this may be the longest lineup in College Baseball. While the Red Raiders' pitching staff is both young and still a little unsettled, there is talent on the mound here. Most importantly, this team plays with the confidence and toughness of their head coach Tim Tadlock. Watching their Super Regional it felt as if senior first baseman Eric Gutierrez just wasn't going to let this team lose.

Who's Hot:
Erikson Lanning, Hayden Howard and Robert Duggar have been outstanding on the mound over the last two weekends and that was imperative as the rest of the pitching staff has wobbled. Tanner Gardner leads the team with 12 hits and a .444 batting average in tournament play. Tyler Neslony caught fire in the Super Regional and he leads the Red Raiders with both 21 doubles and 58 RBI.

Concerns:
The two main concerns for Texas Tech are that the pitching staff continues to be unsettled and the Red Raiders were pushed right to the brink of elimination in both the Regional and Super Regional rounds.  Three different freshmen pitchers have started a game in the NCAA Tournament and rookie Davis Martin took his first loss of the season against East Carolina. Despite their explosive lineup, the Red Raiders couldn't shake the competition in either round of this tournament and they needed nine lives to escape East Carolina in game two of the Super Regional with the season on the line.

Marquee Matchup:
The Red Raiders won the season series over TCU two games to one in a weekend slate that was played in Fort Worth. The pitching matchup figures to be Jared Janczak versus Davis Martin. Janczak was outstanding in three innings of relief against the Red Raiders while Martin pitched well in winning game one of the series. These are two of the more athletic and explosive offenses in the CWS field.

Draft Impact:
Players taken in the 2016 MLB Draft (round, team)

• Ryan Moseley (8, Orioles)
• Tyler Neslony (9, Braves)
• Stephen Smith (10, Diamondbacks)
• Hayden Howard (12, Nationals)
• Ty Damron (15, Athletics)
• Robert Dugger (18, Mariners)
• Eric Gutierrez (20, Marlins)
• Chandler Eden (25, Dodgers)
• Dalton Brown (30, Brewers)
• Zach Davis (32, Cubs)


Texas Christian – 47-16 (18/11)

Preseason Prognostication:
Already a favorite for the Big 12 Freshman of the Year honors, and possibly the top freshman in the nation, Baker could make an immediate impact on both sides of the ball thanks to his power arm/bat profile. A PG All-American during the summer of 2014, Baker was determined to honor his commitment to TCU and could become one of the bigger stars at the college level over the next 3-4 years.
Durbin Feltman (TCU Athletics)
How They Got To Omaha:
Won Fort Worth Regional (3-0)
Won College Station Super Regional (2-1)

Why They Got To Omaha:
TCU made quick work of their three Regional opponents at home and then had two convincing wins against Texas A&M, in College Station, to advance past the Aggies in Super Regional play for the second year in a row. Starters Jared Janczak and Brian Howard did an excellent job keeping the mighty A&M lineup at bay in the first and third games, while the offense also did their job to produce key runs at opportune moments.

Who’s Hot:
For as good as Brian Howard has been in on the mound during the postseason and how huge of a presence Luken Baker provides in the middle of the lineup, the emergence of freshman Durbin Feltman as a late-inning option for coach Schlossnagle has been huge. Feltman picked up the win in TCU’s Big 12 Championship clincher against West Virginia (providing three scoreless frames to move to 3-0 on the year) and also picked up saves (7 and 8 on the season) against Gonzaga in Regional play and against Texas A&M in their Super Regional clinching victory with two scorless innings in each of those games.

Concerns:
In what is a consistent theme for any and all teams in Omaha, finding a reliable third starting option is such a crucial component for any team looking to survive the double elimination format. TCU may have that option in Mitchell Traver, but he has to pitch more like he did against Oral Roberts in Regional play (five scoreless innings) than he did against Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship and Texas A&M a week ago.

Marquee Matchup:
TCU’s opening matchup in Omaha comes against a familiar foe, Big 12 rival Texas Tech. The Red Raiders took their regular season in late April two games to one as the two teams are extremely evenly matched. Both pitching staffs will be challenged to keep the opposing offenses in check, as this game could easily turn into a slug-fest. As noted above, Janczak has since been re-assigned as a starter since that series and it may fall on his shoulders to pitch well enough for TCU to walk away with a  game one win.

Draft Impact:
Players taken in the 2016 MLB Draft (round, team)

• Brian Trieglaff (13, Yankees)
• Mitchell Traver (17, Reds)
• Brian Howard (17, Astros)
• Rex Hill (27, Royals)
• Elliott Barzilli (29, Astros)
• Preston Guillory (31, Marlins)


Florida – 52-14 (1/2)

Preseason Prognostication:
Florida has two starting rotations deep that gives them an incredible number of power arms to turn to out of the bullpen and even during their mid-week contests. Logan Shore and A.J. Puk will be tough to beat on Friday and Saturdays, while Alex Faedo and Dane Dunning – or whoever they choose to turn to – won't make it any easier.
Logan Shore (Tim Casey)
How They Got To Omaha:
Won Gainesville Regional (3-0)
Won Gainesville Super Regional (2-1)

Why They Got To Omaha:
After the Gators had three fairly convincing wins over each of their three Regional guests Florida State made them sweat a little, taking the first game and losing the second to force a third, deciding game, one that Florida was able to relax a little after J.J. Schwarz’s fifth-inning grand slam. Florida entered the season as the nation’s No. 1 team and spent almost the entire year in the pole position. They have the best collection of talent of any of the eight teams in Omaha and that talent has fulfilled their lofty promise so far.

Who’s Hot:
Pete Alonso has served as the heart and soul of the Gators’ lineup all season long and has been on a torrid pace during the offseason. Schwarz of course had the huge game on Monday, and Dalton Guthrie is getting on base at a terrific clip at the top of the order. Logan Shore is as steady as they come serving as the team ace, and the same can be said for their closer, Shaun Anderson. Dane Dunning provided 4 1/3 amazing innings of relief on Monday to earn the much deserving win as he could be the true wild card for Florida in the CWS.

Concerns:
At this point the biggest concern is that every other team is going to bring their A game when facing the Gators as the projected team to beat all season long. Their No. 2 starter, A.J. Puk, will need to exhibit much better command than he did on Monday after walking six in 3 2/3 innings.

Marquee Matchup:
Shore, the SEC Pitcher of the Year who is now 12-0 on the season, is going to have his work cut out for him facing an upstart Coastal Carolina offense on Sunday. The Chanticleers work the count and have four hitters in their lineup with at least 15 home runs. However, Shore’s changeup and overall command could go a long way to neutralize that power.

Draft Impact:
Players taken in the 2016 MLB Draft (round, team)

• A.J. Puk (1, Athletics)
• Dane Dunning (1, Nationals)
• Logan Shore (2, Athletics)
• Buddy Reed (2, Padres)
• Pete Alonso (2, Mets)
• Shaun Anderson (3, Red Sox)
• Scott Moss (4, Reds)
• Kirby Snead (10, Blue Jays)


Coastal Carolina – 49-16 (21/15)

The Chants are seemingly a threat to leave the yard and put up a crooked number regardless of where they are in their lineup as Paez and Owings are two of five returning players with at least six home runs last season. Opposing pitchers beware.
Zach Remillard (Coastal Carolina)
How They Got To Omaha:
Won Raleigh Regional (3-1)
Won Baton Rouge Super Regional (2-0)

Why They Got To Omaha:
All Coastal Carolina did was storm through both Raleigh and Baton Rouge, taking two games against both NC State and LSU in significant upsets. They were on the brink of elimination in their deciding contest against the Wolfpack, and also scratched and clawed their way back in their deciding game against the Tigers, as this team has the will and determination to bring their best against the best.

Who’s Hot:
Several Chants have taken their turns being the hero offensively, as Zach Remillard in particular had a few huge games over both NC State and LSU that helped propel Coastal to Omaha. However, losing Lancaster to a knee injury was a huge blow as few were as locked in as he was, going 8-for-16 in five postseason games before missing the Super Regional clincher against LSU.

Concerns:
This team has relied heavily on their two proven starters, Andrew Beckwith and Alex Cunningham, as well as their two best relievers, Mike Morrison and Bobby Holmes. Although Oregon State for the most part rode a small handful arms to a championship back in 2006, the Chants will need to identify more pitchers they feel confident turning to in high pressure situations.

Marquee Matchup:
While the lineup will certainly have their hands full against Florida ace Logan Shore in game one, Chants ace Andrew Beckwith will have to contend with a deep and lethal Gators offense as well. The one thing the slinging righthander has going for him is the fact that Florida is very righthanded heavy, which will help his command-oriented approach from a lower arm slot play up.

Draft Impact:
Players taken in the 2016 MLB Draft (round, team)

• Michael Paez (4, Mets)
• Zach Remillard (10, White Sox)
• Mike Morrison (27, White Sox)
• Alex Cunningham (28, Tigers)
• G.K. Young (31, Padres)
• Connor Owings (34, Diamondbacks)



2016 College World Series Prediction

Last year we picked Florida beating Vanderbilt in the CWS finals, which of course wasn’t an accurate prediction, but did speak to just how dominant both clubs were heading into Omaha.

This year the teams that appear to be riding the most momentum, with the talent to match, are Oklahoma State and Florida.

Oklahoma State cruised through both the Regional and Super Regional rounds, knocking off a pair of Regional hosts in Clemson and South Carolina, two clubs that spent the majority of the year ranked within the Top 25. Oklahoma State endured their ups and downs, but they righted the ship at the perfect time and are playing like the team we thought they would be as they entered the season ranked seventh in our preseason Top 25.

Florida was an easy pick for the top team heading into the 2016 season, especially given how dominant they were to close out the 2015 season, winning the SEC Tournament, advancing past Regional and Super Regional play fairly easily before seeing their season come to an end in an elimination game at the hands of the eventual National Champion Virginia Cavaliers, one game away from the predicted CWS Finals matchup against Vanderbilt.

Florida has now reached the College World Series five times in the last seven years, finishing as the runner-up in 2011, while Oklahoma State makes their first appearance since 1999. The Cowboys have one National Championship on their resume (1959) while the Gators are still looking for their first.

In the end, while we agree these two teams will face each other in the finals, the panel (Mike Rooney and Patrick Ebert) is split on the results.

Mike Rooney’s pick: Oklahoma State
Patrick Ebert’s pick: Florida


The full 2016 College World Series bracket can be viewed here.
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