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Minors  | General  | 11/10/2014

BP Top Prospects: Atlanta Braves

Chris Mellen      Baseball Prospectus     
Photo: Perfect Game

To view the full feature, including reports on the Atlanta Braves top 10 prospects, please visit this link.


Last year's Braves list

The Top Ten

  1. RHP Lucas Sims
  2. 2B Jose Peraza
  3. Christian Bethancourt
  4. OF/1B Braxton Davidson
  5. RHP Garrett Fulenchek
  6. SS Ozhaino Albies
  7. RHP Alec Grosser
  8. 3B Kyle Kubitza
  9. RHP J.R. Graham
  10. RHP Mauricio Cabrera



1. Lucas Sims

Position: RHP
DOB: 05/10/1994
Height/Weight: 6’2” 195 lbs
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1
st round, 2012 draft, Brookwood HS (Snellville, GA)
Previous Ranking: #1 (Org), #40 (Top 101)
2014 Stats: 4.19 ERA (156.2 IP, 146 H, 107 K, 57 BB) at High-A Lynchburg
The Tools: 6+ FB; 6 CB; 6 potential CH

What Happened in 2014: Sims didn’t have the most impressive overall line in High-A, but the 20-year-old logged 156 2/3 innings over 28 starts and showed he can hold up deep into a season.

Strengths: Easy delivery; smooth and fluid throughout motion; good balance; athletic; ability to repeat arm slot; fastball operates 91-94 with ease; can reach back for more when needs to; displays late life; excellent crispness to curveball; throws with loose wrist; creates hard snap; deep shape, with downward bend in high 70s; can change shape; legit bat-missing offering; flashes feel for change; bottom-dropping action in low 80s; projection for command growth; competes on mound. 

Weaknesses: Can lose finish with delivery; will drift with landing; leaves him prone to working too elevated with heater; command on the loose side; needs improvement spotting into all four quadrants of strike zone; decent-sized fastball command gap to close; curve gets slurvy when wrist wraps upon release; loses good bite and rolls; change tends to float when thrown in mid-80s; more like a fastball pitcher is taking something off of; can get too amped up—loses rhythm and pace. 

Overall Future Potential: High 6; no. 2/3 starter.

Realistic Role: High 5; no. 3/4 starter

Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; yet to pitch in Double-A; command progression.

Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Just because Sims’ statistical trajectory isn’t where it was last year doesn’t make him less of a fantasy prospect this year. With two pitches that project as plus, he has the potential to be a 180-strikeout pitcher at the major league level, and while that isn’t quite what it used to be in this high-K environment, it’s fantasy worthy in all leagues.

The Year Ahead: Sims is all but set to get his first test in the upper minors. While on the surface 2014 looks like a mixed bag, the reports indicated that the arm took some nice strides. Sims found more consistency with his delivery later in the season and gained confidence using his changeup more in sequences, two big keys for the 20-year-old to make a smooth transition to Double-A. Sims’ lively fastball and hard-breaking curveball give him two plus pitches, while the change has the potential to get to that level over the long run. The package here can develop into a pretty legit arm. To pass the near-term test this season and reach his full potential down the line he’ll need to show progress throwing better strikes with his fastball. Sims has to learn to spot the pitch better in the lower tier and grab less white with the offering. His athleticism and ability to repeat point toward more command growth coming as he continues to mature, but if it only ends up the area variety, the profile plays down some despite the raw stuff. 

Major league ETA: 2016


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