PG College Top 25 | Chat transcript | Latest NCAA projections
HOOVER, Ala. – One of the most intriguing aspects of conference tournaments is following all the bubble teams around the country to see if they've won or lost. Perhaps that's why the most anticipated part of the first day at the Southeastern Conference tournament were the games between Tennessee-Vanderbilt and Texas A&M-Arkansas.
Vanderbilt is obviously in the field of 64 and could nab a national seed with a strong showing in Hoover this week, while Arkansas is safely in the postseason despite some objections to the contrary before today. Tennessee and Texas A&M, though? Easily put, the Vols entered the day in a must-win situation after compiling an unimpressive 12-18 conference record, while the Aggies weren't in such dire straits, entering the tournament 14-16 conference record.
Both wanted to win today to gain some momentum and make a pitch to the NCAA Division I Selection Committee. Both now head home from this tournament after losses, with the Vols losing a 3-2 thriller to rival Vanderbilt and the Aggies dropping a disappointing 4-0 decision to the Razorbacks despite a stellar performance from junior right-handed pitcher Daniel Mengden.
Tennessee took a step forward by this spring by actually reaching the SEC tournament for the first time since 2007, but its season is likely over. The SEC is unlikely to get 11 bids to the postseason, and that only was a possibility if the Vols were able to make a run here at Hoover Metropolitan Stadium.
With that said, the Vols likely will end the season with some solid metrics from a postseason standpoint. Conference record will hinder this club in the eyes of committee, but in addition to non-conference series wins over Arizona State (on the road) and UNLV (at home), the Vols have a good RPI, 14-15 record vs. RPI Top 100 and 17-19 record vs. RPI Top 100. When compared to some other bubble teams out there, that's actually pretty good. However, again, conference record will hold the Vols back on Monday, and rightfully so.
“I don't really want to say our season has ended, because we have an opportunity to still get into the field,” Tennessee coach Dave Serrano said. “We didn't help ourselves out today, but who knows, there might be someone on the committee who thinks we should be in the field. If we do get in, I won't apologize for it.”
Being realistic, I wouldn't count on having my name called if I'm the Volunteers.
I have the opposite feeling about the Aggies. Entering last weekend's series at home against Ole Miss, it was my thought the Aggies just needed one win against the Rebels to punch their ticket to the NCAA postseason. There will be an uneasy feeling around College Station, Texas, for the next few days, but how much should the Aggies be worried?
Not very, if the selection committee is consistent. And oh, by the way, the committee once again includes Texas A&M athletic director Eric Hyman.
Take last season as Exhibit A of why the Aggies likely are in the postseason this year. A&M went 2-2 in the SEC tournament last season, but had some bad metrics in other areas. For instance, A&M went 13-16 in non-conference, was just 5-5 in its last 10 games, had an RPI of 32, went 10-22 vs. RPI Top 50 and 11-23 vs. RPI Top 100. Besides all that, the Aggies finished the season 6-14 on the road. That resume was good enough to be the No. 2 seed in the Corvallis, Ore., Regional.
How about the Aggies' current resume? It's much better than the one this team had at this point last season. A&M had an RPI of 36 entering the day with a 33-24 overall record after the loss to the Hogs. Furthermore, the Aggies went 14-16 in the SEC, 14-17 if you include today's game as a conference game, while also tallying marks of 10-10 vs. RPI Top 25, 15-15 vs. RPI Top 50 and 18-19 vs. RPI Top 100 (post Arkansas). Additionally, the Aggies went 9-11 on the road this season, while compiling marquee series wins over Florida, Vanderbilt, LSU and Mississippi State, with the series wins over the Commodores and Bulldogs coming on the road. The Aggies also have a higher strength of schedule (7), as opposed to an SOS of 10 last year.
Though the NCAA Division I Selection Committee often says teams are judged on a year-by-year basis, and what happened last season in terms of selections doesn't matter, the committee will have to do quite a change in philosophy this year to deny the Aggies, especially considering how weak the bubble is entering the week.
Still, watchful eyes in College Station will be glued to the conference tournament results elsewhere throughout the rest of the week leading up to Selection Monday.
“I feel like we're in a Regional right now. I feel like we've done enough when it comes to our body of work,” Texas A&M coach Rob Childress said. “We got several nice midweek wins, some on the road, and got some nice weekend series wins, too. I feel like that should get us in.
“With that said, it's an uneasy feeling the next five days as we sit around and have no control over what's going on with other conference tournaments.”
Such as life as one of the teams on the NCAA postseason bubble.