The
Rays were one of the biggest stories pertaining to the draft leading
up the event thanks to the 10 first-round picks at their disposal.
With
the exception of their own first-rounder, those selections came in
the form of compensatory selections, awarded to the Rays due to the
three Type A and four Type B free agents that signed with other teams
last offseason. They also gained an additional second-round pick,
giving them three true first-rounders, seven supplemental first-round
picks and two second-rounders. In total they had 12 selections among
the top 89 overall picks.
I'm
sure I wasn't the only one that expected the Rays to reach for a few
players since signing such a haul of talent requires a significant
amount of money. The amount of money required to sign all of those
early picks could easily exceed $10 million, and it wouldn't be
surprising to see them unable to sign one to three of those players.
What
the Rays did was rather surprising to me, taking players that for the
most part belonged at their respective slot.
I
thought it would be interesting to compare the Rays' early picks and
their slot to where Perfect Game had the individual players ranked
among our final 331 prospect ranking. Below is that listing, with
the number on the left representing the overall selection, with their
respective Perfect Game ranking in parenthesis:
24.
Taylor Guerrieri (12)
31.
Mikie Mahtook (15)
32.
Jaker Hager (120)
38.
Brandon Martin (68)
41.
Tyler Goeddel (63)
42.
Jeff Ames (83)
52.
Blake Snell (49)
56.
Kes Carter (54)
59.
Grayson Garvin (36)
60.
James Harris (280)
75.
Granden Goetzman (58)
89.
Lenny Linsky (147)
The
average slot position was 55.2, and the average ranking was 82.9,
although James Harris alone throws off that average. Without him the
average slot is 54.8 with the average ranking being 66.5, a pretty
close comparison between slot and prospective value.
With
their first two picks, they took players that slipped a little
further than expected, and similar to their 2010 draft effort, they
loaded up on bats. Infielders in particular seemed to be their
target, selecting Hager, Martin and Goeddel with three consecutive
selections.
As I
noted in my American League Draft Impressions feature, you could
field a pretty impressive starting lineup with the players the Rays
took just in the early rounds alone. You could also assemble almost
an entire starting staff to go along with a shut-down closer.
While
these players will begin at different levels and have different
timetables as they climb to the big-leagues, if they were kept
together at the same level they would create half of a roster of
recognizable prospects.
Again,
if the Rays are able to sign all of them.
The Rays weren't the only team to draft aggressively while also
having additional, early picks.
Arguably
the most aggressive of any single pick in the draft was the
Diamondbacks selecting two-sport star Archie Bradley with the seventh
overall selection. That pick is unprotected, meaning if Arizona
doesn't sign Bradley, they don't get another compensatory pick.
I
really liked what the D-Backs did overall with their first four
selections, taking Trevor Bauer, Bradley, Andrew Chafin and Anthony
Meo. That is an incredibly impressive quartet of power arms.
The
Blue Jays loaded up on power arms as well.
Fellow
Vanderbilt recruits Tyler Beede and Kevin Comer will not be easy to
sign away from college, and the same can be said for second-round
pick Daniel Norris. John Stilson, the team's third-round selection,
would have been a first-round pick if it hadn't been for him being
shut down late this spring with arm fatigue. Similar to the Rays
with all of their picks, I don't expect the Blue Jays to sign all of
these players, but as long as they get most of them into the
organization, their 2011 draft should be viewed as a great success.
The
Padres weren't quite as aggressive with their extra, early picks, but
they took a couple of high school prospects that will prove to be
tough signs.
I'm on
record as to saying that right-handed pitcher Michael Kelly was the
most projectable player available for this year's draft. That gives
him one of the highest upsides, and his present-day stuff is already
quite good. He has committed to play for Florida, a program that
unexpectedly plucked Karsten Whitson away from the Padres a year ago.
They may be looking to return the favor.
Austin
Hedges told teams early this spring that he fully intended to head to
UCLA. The Padres likely took him as high as they did (second round)
to make every effort possible to add him to their organization.
And
finally we get to the Nationals, who the past several years have been
dishing out some rather large bonuses, largely in part to having the
first overall pick in consecutive years.
This
year Anthony Rendon, who entered the spring was thought to be the
favorite to go first overall, fell in their laps. Rendon likely will
still be looking for a financial commitment similar to what a first
overall pick would normally get.
Alex
Meyer was the team's second first-round pick, adding Brian Goodwin in
the sandwich round and Matt Purke in the third. All three will take
a significant financial investment to be added into the system, and
in particular Matt Purke may be leaning towards returning to TCU for
his junior year. He was draft-eligible this season as a sophomore,
and may look to improve his draft status next spring after dealing
with a tired arm this year.