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College : : Story
PG 64: Getting closer to reality
Kendall Rogers        
Published: Tuesday, May 24, 2011

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HAVE PROJECTIONS QUESTIONS? Ask Kendall Rogers here

PREMIUM ANALYSIS: Breaking down the projections

Conference tournaments don't always mean much at the end of the regular season. But this season, who performs well in various tournaments could determine who gets a national seed, NCAA Regional host or postseason bid.

Virginia was the top overall national seed in last week's projections, but after dropping a series at North Carolina, the Cavaliers are back in familiar territory behind South Carolina. The Gamecocks have an RPI of 6 with a 44-12 record and are 12-6 vs. RPI Top 25, 18-9 vs. RPI Top 50 and 24-10 vs. RPI Top 100.

Other national seeds this week include (in order), Virginia, Florida, Texas, Vanderbilt, North Carolina, Rice and Arizona State. Other teams considered for national seeds include Georgia Tech, Florida State, Texas A&M and Oregon State.

Virginia has an RPI of 2 and is 9-6 vs. RPI Top 25, 15-8 vs. RPI Top 50 and 21-8 vs. RPI Top 100, Florida has an RPI of 3 and is 15-12 vs. RPI Top 25, 22-13 vs. RPI Top 50 and 29-14 vs. RPI Top 100, Texas has an RPI of 13 and is 4-2 vs. RPI Top 25, 16-7 vs. RPI Top 50 and 27-11 vs. RPI Top 100, Vanderbilt has an RPI of 5 and is 11-7 vs. RPI Top 25, 19-8 vs. RPI Top 50 and 23-8 vs. RPI Top 100, North Carolina is 11-5 vs. RPI Top 25, 15-8 vs. RPI Top 50 and 31-12 vs. RPI Top 100, Rice has an RPI of 10 and is 5-3 vs. RPI Top 25, 12-9 vs. RPI Top 50 and 28-17 vs. RPI Top 100 and Arizona State has an RPI of 8 and is 3-4 vs. RPI Top 25, 14-7 vs. RPI Top 50 and 25-10 vs. RPI Top 100.

In addition to the national seeds, other NCAA Regional hosts include Georgia Tech, Florida State, Cal State Fullerton, Texas A&M, TCU, Southern Mississippi, Oregon State and Arkansas. Other programs considered for host sites include Clemson, Oklahoma, Stetson and Miami in that order.

PG's NCAA postseason projections are released every week leading up to Selection Monday, which is Monday, May 30.

COLUMBIA REGIONAL
Host: South Carolina
1. South Carolina* (1)
4. Manhattan*
2. Fla. International
3. N.C. State
HATTIESBURG REGIONAL
Host: Southern Mississippi
1. Southern Miss
4. Alcorn State*
2. Clemson
3. SE Louisiana
C'VILLE REGIONAL
Host: Virginia
1. Virginia* (2)
4. Navy*
2. Connecticut*
3. Alabama
FAYETTEVILLE REGIONAL
Host: Arkansas
1. Arkansas
4. Oral Roberts*
2. Oklahoma State
3. Creighton*
GAINESVILLE REGIONAL
Host: Florida
1. Florida (3)
4. Princeton*
2. Stetson*
3. Florida Atlantic
ATLANTA REGIONAL
Host: Georgia Tech
1. Georgia Tech
4. James Madison*
2. Troy*
3. Auburn
AUSTIN REGIONAL
Host: Texas
1. Texas* (4)
4. Sacred Heart*
2. Mississippi State
3. Texas State*
FULLERTON REGIONAL
Host: Cal State Fullerton
1. Cal State Fullerton*
4. Hawaii*
2. UCLA
3. Kansas State
NASHVILLE REGIONAL
Host: Vanderbilt
1. Vanderbilt (5)
4. Austin Peay*
2. Miami
3. Mercer
CORVALLIS REGIONAL
Host: Oregon State
1. Oregon State*
4. Gonzaga*
2. Fresno State
3. Kent State*
CHAPEL HILL REGIONAL
Host: North Carolina
1. North Carolina (6)
4. Charlotte*
2. East Carolina
3. Elon*
FORT WORTH REGIONAL
Host: Texas Christian
1. TCU*
4. Coastal Carolina*
2. Stanford
3. Dallas Baptist
HOUSTON REGIONAL
Host: Rice
1. Rice* (7)
4. Wright State*
2. Baylor
3. Arizona
COLLEGE STATION REGIONAL
Host: Texas A&M
1. Texas A&M
4. Illinois*
2. California
3. LSU
TEMPE REGIONAL
Host: Arizona State
1. Arizona State (8)
4. Stony Brook*
2. Oklahoma
3. UC Irvine
TALLAHASSEE REGIONAL
Host: Florida State
1. Florida State
4. Bethune-Cookman*
2. Central Florida
3. Jacksonville
Last six: LSU, Dallas Baptist, Southeastern Louisiana, Kansas State, Florida Atlantic, Mercer
Next 10: Mississippi, East Tennessee State, Texas Tech, Cal State Bakersfield, St. John's, Illinois State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Tulane, College of Charleston, Missouri State

Projected national seeds in parentheses.
*—Projected winner of an automatic bid.
Possible super regional matchups are listed side-by-side
Stony Brook Charlotte
Virginia Stetson
Connecticut Coastal Carolina
Illinois
Texas
Cal State Fullerton
James Madison
Rice Wright State
Princeton
Manhattan
Kent State Bethune-Cookman
Creighton TCU
Sacred Heart
Austin Peay
Oregon State Navy
South Carolina
Elon
Texas State
Oral Roberts
Troy Alcorn State
Hawaii
Gonzaga


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