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Draft  | Story  | 2/11/2011

Draft 2012: McCullers Moving into Elite Class

Allan Simpson     
McCullers Moving Into Elite Class
Among High School Draft Prospects

In the last 25 years, you can count almost on one hand the number of high-school baseball players that were so talented at an early age that their prospect status was established in the scouting community well in advance of their draft year.
 
Some of the players that immediately come to mind are Cincinnati prep outfielder Ken Griffey Jr. (first pick in the 1987 draft), Miami high-school sensation Alex Rodriguez (No. 1 in 1993), Texas fireballing righthander Josh Beckett (No. 2 in 1999), the Upton brothers (B.J., No. 2 in 2002; Justin, No. 1 in 2005) and California outfielder Delmon Young (No. 1 in 2003). All announced their arrival as prime-time prospects as high-school juniors, and even sophomores in some cases.
 
A case could also be made for Nevada prep sensation Bryce Harper, who was so gifted as a Las Vegas High sophomore that he would have been an overwhelming favorite to go No. 1 overall in the 2011 draft had he stayed the course in high school and not elected to leave early to become eligible for the draft a year ahead of schedule. Harper was a slam-dunk choice as the top pick in last year’s draft.
 
In the absence of Harper, the 2011 draft does not have a high-school player that stands head and shoulders above his peers. But the 2012 draft class does.
 
Lance McCullers Jr., a junior at Tampa Jesuit High, is so advanced in all phases of his game that he could conceivably be a candidate to go first overall two years from now as either a righthanded pitcher or power-hitting infielder. The general view among scouts is that McCullers’ upside may be slightly higher on the mound, and radar-gun readings in the 96-97 mph range have been standard procedure for him at this early stage of his career.
 
The 6-foot-2, 195-pound McCullers comes by his talent honestly as his father was a second-round pick of the Philadelphia Phillies out of a Tampa high school in 1982, and went on to play seven years in the big leagues, mostly as a reliever with the San Diego Padres.
 
PG CrossChecker has prepared an early list of the top 300 prospects in the 2012 draft class, and McCullers sits comfortably in the No. 1 spot. Four of the top seven positions are occupied by high-school players, but none of the others has the natural talent, or the high-profile status that McCullers has enjoyed pretty much since he was a heralded high-school freshman.
 
No less an authority than Tampa Jesuit pitching coach Geoff Goetz, himself a first-round pick in 1997 out of the same school, has no doubt that McCullers is a rare commodity.
 
“It’s as rare as I have ever seen,” Goetz told the St. Petersburg Times last fall. “I mean, I played with Josh Beckett as a senior (with Team USA’s junior-national team) and he was amazing. But to have that kind of velocity at his age and to be able to throw two other plus pitches for strikes, I’ve never seen anything like that. It’s just a different level.
 
“It wouldn’t surprise me if he hit 100 next year. He might have already hit it. At 16, he’s not even close to hitting his peak, velocity-wise. But if he can consistently pitch between 93 and 97 and get hitters out, holy cow, he’s still be better than 99.9 percent of the guys out there.”
 
Not only does McCullers have a loose, fast arm with electric stuff, but he has command of all three pitches in his repertoire. In addition to his dominant fastball, he also has a mid-80s power curve and a changeup. His superior arm strength is readily evident on the left side of the infield, and his powerful lefthanded bat makes him a middle-of-the-order presence.
 
There were rumblings last summer and early fall that McCullers might leave school early, and transfer to a junior college to become eligible for the draft a year ahead of schedule, much like Harper did, but those rumors have dissipated. McCullers, however, did make a verbal commitment last spring to attend the University of Florida—in 2013.
 
Though he will be a man among boys at the high-school level for two more years, McCullers will set out to lead Tampa Jesuit to a state 4-A title that narrowly eluded the team last spring. As a sophomore, he hit .457-2-30 while posting a 2-0, 0.39 record with three saves and chalking up 34 strikeouts in 18 innings. He will continue to interchangeably play shortstop and be used in a closing role, though below-average speed may eventually push him to third base at the next level.
 
While McCullers has already become the unquestioned hot topic in the 2012 draft class, the other distinguishing feature is the potential impact that Stanford might have throughout the first round. On the accompanying Top 300 list, the Cardinal has four players in the top 23. Never before has a draft produced more than three first-rounders from the same school.
 
The list of Stanford products includes righthander Mark Appel at No. 2 and shortstop Kenny Diekroeger at No. 4. The 6-foot-5 Appel pitched sparingly as a freshman, going 2-1, 5.92 while working mostly in relief, after being drafted in the 15th round in 2009 out of a California high school. Diekroeger, a local prep product and an unsigned second-round pick in 2009, led the Cardinal in hitting as a freshman (.356-5-41) while spending most of the season at third base.
 
It was during the summer that both players truly established themselves as top prospects for the 2012 draft. Both played for Newport of the New England Collegiate League and ranked 1-2 among that league’s top prospects. Appel’s fastball peaked at 97 as he made the seamless conversion to a starter, while Diekroeger showcased five-tool ability while making the transition from third to short. Both players should be impact players for Stanford as sophomores in their newly-established roles.
 
Stanford outfielders Stephen Piscotty and Jacob Stewart, meanwhile, ranked 1-2 among the top prospects last summer in the Alaska League, and also secured positions among the elite prospects for the 2012 draft. Piscotty ranks No. 20 on the list, Stewart No. 23.
 
Arizona State’s impact on next year’s draft may be nearly as profound as its Pacific-10 Conference rival as it has three players projected to go in the first round: shortstop Deven Marrero (No. 6), and righthanders Jake Barrett (No. 9) and Brady Rodgers (No. 28).
 
Not surprisingly, with Stanford and Arizona State boasting two of the best shortstop prospects in the country in Diekroeger and Marrero, an unsigned 17th-rounder out of high school, the college crop at the position for the 2012 draft has a chance to be exceptional.
 
In addition to Diekroeger and Marrero, Rutgers shortstop Steve Nyisztor (No. 8) is also projected to go in the top half of the first round, and Miami shortstop Steven Perez (No. 26) a few picks later. And that doesn’t even include a player considered the best defensive shortstop in the college game, Florida’s Nolan Fontana (No. 59), who made just four errors as a freshman. Fontana, the grandson of former big league pitcher Lew Burdette, excelled at shortstop last summer for USA Baseball’s college national team.
 
By contrast, the highest-ranked college shortstops in this year’s draft class are North Carolina’s Levi Michael (No. 65 overall) and St. John’s Joe Panik (No. 70).
 
McCullers is firmly entrenched as the top prospect for the 2012 draft, but it’s a toss-up whether Nick Williams or Trey Williams will be the second high-school player selected. Both Williams boys (unrelated) have a chance to be significant offensive players, and rank No. 3 and 5 overall, respectively.
 
Nick Williams, an outfielder from Ball High in Galveston, Texas, is considered the premier position player in the 2012 high-school class. A five-tool athlete, he has drawn comparisons to a young Darryl Strawberry.
 
Williams only cemented his reputation as an elite prospect last summer in Marietta, Ga., when he went deep four times in one game at the World Wood Bat Association 16-and-under summer championship on his way to earning tournament MVP honors at the 216-team event. Both his hitting ability and raw power grade out as top-of-the-scale tools, and he projects to be at least an average defensive outfielder. While he hit just .284-5-15 as a sophomore at Ball High, the 6-foot-2, 185-pound Williams is primed for a monster junior year.
 
Trey Williams, meanwhile, is a third baseman from Valencia (Calif.) High. His counterpart may have a slight edge as a prospect because he’s considered a more complete player, but Trey may be the better overall hitter. He has extremely quick hands with very good present strength in his swing, and both his hitting ability and raw power grade out as above-average tools. Williams just needs to refine the rest of his game, but he has relatively clean actions and a strong arm, and should be well-suited for third base over the long haul.
 
Obviously, the 2012 draft is still more than a year and half away, and much can change between now and then, but the prospect status of McCullers is expected to stand the test of time, just like the handful of elite high-school talents that passed before him in past drafts.
 
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