Midseason Awards | Seminoles top Gators mid-week
Selection
Monday is a mere eight weeks from this past Monday so it’s time to
start our Nostradamus impersonation. There is obviously a ton of
time for things to shake themselves out but here is a first attempt
at Regional predictions.
The
process splits into two categories: selection and seeding. Selection
breaks down into 31 automatic bids followed by 33 at-large bids.
Automatic bids are won on the field whereas the at large bids are
awarded by the Selection Committee.
The
seeding we will focus on consists of the Top 8 National Seeds
followed by the “next eight” Regional hosts. The Top 8 National
Seeds have earned the right to host all the way to Omaha. Home field
advantage plays an enormous role in this tournament.
We
will first list the 31 automatic bids by conference, and this is only
because it affects who is left for at-large bids. Since a team’s
entire “body of work” is so critical to this process, a midseason
prediction is more fun than function. But it is interesting to see
where teams stand at this juncture. And we’re off.
Records listed as of Monday, March 30
Automatic
Bids:
| Conference |
School |
|
Conference |
School |
| America East |
Stony Brook |
|
MEAC |
Delaware State |
| American |
UCF |
|
Missouri Valley |
Dallas Baptist |
| Atlantic 10 |
St. Louis |
|
Mountain West |
Nevada |
| ACC |
Florida State |
|
Northeast |
Central Connecticut State |
| Atlantic Sun |
North Florida |
|
Ohio Valley |
Southeast Missouri State |
| Big Ten |
Maryland |
|
Pac-12 |
UCLA |
| Big 12 |
Texas Christian |
|
Patriot |
Navy |
| Big East |
St. John's |
|
SEC |
Louisiana State |
| Big South |
Coastal Carolina |
|
Southern |
Wofford |
| Big West |
UC Santa Barbara |
|
Southland |
Southeastern Louisiana |
| Colonial |
UNC-Wilmington |
|
SWAC |
Alabama State |
| Conference USA |
Rice |
|
Summit |
Oral Roberts |
| Horizon |
Wright State |
|
Sun Belt |
Georgia Southern |
| Ivy |
Columbia |
|
WCC |
San Diego |
| MAAC |
Canisius |
|
WAC |
Sacramento State |
| MAC |
Kent State |
|
|
|
Top
8 National Seeds:
| No. |
School |
Record |
RPI |
| 1 |
Louisiana State |
23-5 |
22 |
| 2 |
Florida State |
22-7 |
3 |
| 3 |
Texas Christian |
21-4 |
5 |
| 4 |
Texas A&M |
27-2 |
4 |
| 5 |
Vanderbilt |
22-6 |
13 |
| 6 |
UCLA |
21-5 |
5 |
| 7 |
Florida |
23-6 |
10 |
| 8 |
Arizona State |
18-7 |
8 |
The
“Next Eight” Regional Hosts:
| No. |
School |
Record |
RPI |
| 9 |
Louisville |
21-7 |
18 |
| 10 |
Miami |
19-9 |
2 |
| 11 |
UCF |
22-7 |
12 |
| 12 |
Nebraska |
21-7 |
17 |
| 13 |
UC Santa Barbara |
19-7 |
32 |
| 14 |
Dallas Baptist |
22-3 |
1 |
| 15 |
Virginia |
18-8 |
39 |
| 16 |
Oklahoma State |
19-8 |
9 |
Bold
indicates a team earning an at large bid as a Host school
The
Top 8 National Seed decisions were fairly clear cut with the
exception of choosing between Louisville and Florida State from the
ACC. Louisville’s RPI hurt them, it stands at 23 currently, but
there is plenty of time for that to improve.
The
next eight Hosts made for a very difficult exercise. The Power 5
conferences possess all of the RPI advantages once conference play
starts so there will be teams from those leagues who will come on
like gangbusters in the next two months. For now, it was refreshing
to reward teams like Dallas Baptist, Nebraska, and UC Santa Barbara.
The
33 At-Large Bids:
This
list will be 24 teams since 9 at-large bids will come from the Hosts
above
| School |
Record |
RPI |
| Bradley |
17-6 |
15 |
| Florida Atlantic |
22-6 |
7 |
| Georgia Tech |
17-10 |
21 |
| Iowa |
16-6 |
11 |
| Missouri State |
17-7 |
14 |
|
|
|
| California |
20-7 |
36 |
| Auburn |
17-11 |
28 |
| Ole Miss |
14-14 |
19 |
| Alabama |
14-12 |
23 |
| Illinois |
18-6-1 |
29 |
|
|
|
| North Carolina |
16-11 |
25 |
| Indiana |
16-8 |
33 |
| Middle Tennessee State |
16-10 |
20 |
| Texas |
17-11 |
55 |
| San Diego State |
22-6 |
26 |
|
|
|
| South Florida |
20-8-1 |
31 |
| Kentucky |
18-10 |
16 |
| Southern California |
22-6 |
35 |
| College of Charleston |
17-7 |
43 |
| Wake Forest |
19-11 |
67 |
|
|
|
| South Carolina |
19-9 |
54 |
| Oregon State |
21-7 |
73 |
| Missouri |
19-9 |
59 |
| Houston |
19-9 |
30 |
Close but Out:
| School |
Record |
RPI |
| Ohio State |
18-7 |
24 |
| Connecticut |
17-9 |
27 |
| Cal State Fullerton |
14-13 |
37 |
| West Virginia |
15-10 |
38 |
| Notre Dame |
16-10 |
45 |
| Michigan State |
12-12 |
47 |
| Fresno State |
16-13 |
51 |
| UAB |
17-9 |
57 |
| Louisiana |
15-10 |
58 |
| Cal State Northridge |
20-8 |
60 |
| Clemson |
13-13 |
62 |
| New Mexico |
14-11 |
63 |
| Liberty |
17-10 |
64 |
| Long Beach State |
13-10 |
65 |
| Memphis |
17-6 |
66 |
| Virginia Tech |
15-14 |
68 |
| Oregon |
17-11 |
69 |
| Texas Tech |
18-10 |
71 |
| Duke |
19-9 |
72 |
| Georgia |
18-11 |
85 |
| Tulane |
18-10 |
88 |
| Oklahoma |
18-12 |
96 |
| Arizona |
22-6 |
95 |
| Stanford* |
10-14 |
50 |
*
Teams under .500 are ineligible for at-large bid
Interesting notes from at-large bids:
• There
are 10 teams from the SEC which equals last year’s record of 10
teams. It’s hard to imagine that 10 teams actually make it through
the SEC gauntlet unscathed, but it is clearly the deepest conference
in the nation.
• The
list of teams on the “Out” list is strong and you can look for
several of these teams to jump into the mix in short order. Many of
these teams will naturally improve their RPIs through conference play
but they must do that in order to avoid scaring off the Committee.
• Any
time your RPI gets into the 50s or higher, it is time to get nervous.
For perspective, UCF was left out of last year’s field with an RPI
of 48.