50 Years of the MLB Draft, Part 1 | 2014 Perfect Game MLB Draft preview content
The Baseball Draft: 1965-2014
A Fifty-Year Retrospective (cont.)
26.
Inexact Science: Part II
Being
drafted in the first round is no guarantee of future major-league
stardom, much less even reaching the promised land. Among 1,198
players selected in the first round (June, regular phase only) from
1965-2009, only 827—or 69.0 percent—had ascended to the big
leagues by the start of the 2014 season (no provision has been made
for first-rounders drafted from 2010-13). Understandably, the success
rate for first-round draft picks has climbed through the years as
baseball scouting has become more sophisticated. From 1965-74, in the
first decade of the draft’s existence, the success rate of
first-rounders was only 62.9 percent; in the five-year period from
2005-09, it had jumped to 76.3 percent. But it has not been a steady,
upward trend as 75.2 percent of first-rounders reached the big
leagues in the decade from 1985-94, while only 67.7 percent were
successful from 1995-2004. The variance in the latter 10-year period
is ascribed to rapidly-escalated bonuses and the penchant for teams
to draft more on the basis of signability as opposed to straight
ability. Predictably, the success rate of draft picks dips with each
descending round beyond the first round. Among 300 players selected
as supplemental first-round picks through the years, a practice that
began in 1983, 54.7 have ascended to the majors. The chances of a
second-rounder playing in the big leagues is documented at 46.5
percent, while third-rounders have historically reached at a 37.8
percent clip, fourth-rounders at 31.3 percent and fifth-rounders at
29.5 percent. Generally, the chances of a drafted player of any kind
playing Major League Baseball is approximately 15 percent.
27.
Runaway Inflation: Part I
How
much has bonus inflation impacted the draft through the years?
Consider that in 1965, in the draft’s first year, the average
first-round bonus was $42,516, the lowest ever. By 1977, it was still
just $48,313. Bonuses started creeping upwards thereafter, and by
1983 the average first-rounder received $87,236; by 1988, the figure
was $142,540. But the 1989 draft signaled the beginning of a sharp
upturn on the size of signing bonuses, with runaway inflation of
between 25 and 45 percent a common annual occurrence over the next 10
years. By 1998, the average first-round bonus was $1,637,667. A
decade later, it had jumped to $2,458,714, and finally peaked at
$2,653,375 in 2011, before joint measures were finally undertaken by
Major League Baseball and the Player’s Association as part of a new
Collective Bargaining Agreement aimed at capping bonuses and
distributing bonus money more equitably among clubs, with a reversing
of the trend a logical outcome.
28.
Runaway Inflation: Part II
When
the draft was instituted in 1964, to go into effect in 1965, it was a
reactionary measure in large part to the record $200,000 signing
bonus paid out that year to Los Angeles Angels outfielder Rick
Reichardt.
The bonus was so significant, compared to the general financial
well-being of a number of major-league clubs at the time, that it was
more than double the average 1964 major-league salary of $85,909. As
the first pick in the first pick, Rick
Monday’s
signing bonus of $100,000, while only half of Reichardt’s record
amount, still exceeded the average 1965 big-league salary of $81,565.
But it would be the last such occurrence that the highest signing
bonus in any year topped the average major-league salary until 1991,
when the New York Yankees turned the industry upside-down by forking
over a record bonus of $1.55 million to that year’s first pick,
Brien Taylor—a
figure that easily topped the 1991 major-league average salary of
$1,116,603. That trend would only continue in the years to come as
Taylor’s bonus record would be topped time and again—as many as
17 times altogether. Pittsburgh Pirates righthander Gerrit
Cole,
the top pick in the 2011 draft, holds the existing signing-bonus
record of $8 million, though Washington Nationals righthander Stephen
Strasburg
signed a lucrative major-league contract as the top pick in 2009,
which included a $7.5 million bonus but also guaranteed him
$15,107,104 overall. Monday’s original draft bonus record of
$100,000—and, for that matter, Reichardt’s pre-draft record
amount—obviously pale in relation to those figures, regardless of
how much simple inflation has climbed over the last 50 years.
29.
The 1-1 Mystique
The
first overall pick each year holds a place of special distinction in
baseball draft lore, though it’s hardly been one closely-knit
fraternity with the varying paths that many of the players have taken
in their evolving major-league careers. On one score, Ken
Griffey Jr.
(1987), Chipper Jones
(1990) and Alex Rodriguez
(1993) enjoyed unparalleled success as big-leaguers, and easily
validated their selection as the top talent in their draft class. The
same case can be made for Joe
Mauer
(2001), and possibly even Darryl
Strawberry,
though he may simply have been the best talent in an otherwise lean
1980 crop. The verdict is still out on first overall picks of
more-recent vintage, like Adrian
Gonzalez
(2000), Justin Upton
(2005), David Price
(2007), Stephen Strasburg
(2009) and Bryce Harper
(2010). On the other hand, Steve
Chilcott
(1966), Brien Taylor
(1991) and Matt Bush
(2004) never so much as played a day in the big leagues, while Al
Chambers
(1979), Shawn Abner
(1984), Matt Anderson
(1997) and Bryan Bullington
(2002)
never came close to justifying their selection as the No. 1 pick,
either, with sparse big-league contributions. Danny
Goodwin?
He was the No. 1 choice on two separate occasions, in 1971 and again
in 1975, and curiously never came close to fulfilling the potential
scouts saw in him in four years of college. Goodwin and Tim
Belcher
(1983) hold the distinction of being the only No. 1 picks to go
unsigned. But Bush and Taylor hold an even more dubious distinction
as they ran afoul of the law and ended up serving time in jail.
Strawberry and Josh Hamilton
(1999) had their own share of off-field problems, and well-documented
substance-abuse issues nearly derailed both their promising careers.
In Rick Monday
(1965), Floyd Bannister
(1976) and Bob Horner
(1978), collegiate power Arizona State contributed plenty to the
intriguing 1-1 dynamic. Through the years, there has been an even
split between college and high-school players, with 24 selections
apiece, and the much-publicized Harper stands as the lone
junior-college selection. On 12 occasions, the No. 1 pick has been a
collegiate righthander, but a prep righty has never had the honor of
going first. Eight high-school shortstops have gone first overall,
compared to just one at the college level. Most No. 1 overall picks
were handsomely compensated for the services they were expected to
deliver, especially Strasburg and Gerrit
Cole
(2011) with the existing record contracts they signed, if not the
promise for considerably more later in their careers. In the regard,
Rodriguez has earned more in major-league salary than any player in
baseball history. If any first overall pick could make a case for
being underpaid or underappreciated at any step along the way, one
could be made for Harold
Baines
(1977) as his paltry $32,000 signing bonus was less than half the
amount received by the two players drafted immediately after him—Bill
Gullickson ($75,000) and Paul Molitor ($77,500)—and was also little
more than half the next-lowest bonus paid out to a top pick (Chambers
at $60,000). But Baines got the last laugh as he earned plenty of
opportunity to make up for shortcoming on the strength of a 22-year,
big-league career that equaled Griffey’s as the longest by a first
overall pick.
30.
Inexact Science: Part III
It’s
already been documented that just 69 percent of first-round draft
picks have reached the big leagues through the years, and that
surprisingly-low figure only serves to point out how inexact a
science the draft in particular, and scouting of amateur prospects in
general can be—especially when a lowly 62nd-round
afterthought like catcher Mike
Piazza
can assemble the equivalent of a Hall-of-Fame career. Piazza was
drafted out of Florida’s Miami-Dade CC by the Los Angeles Dodgers
in 1988 mostly as a favor to long-time Dodgers manager Tommy Lasorda,
a friend of the Piazza family, and yet Piazza went on to hit .308
with 427 home runs and 1,335 RBIs in a 16-year career, primarily with
the Dodgers and New York Mets. Not to be outdone, outfielder Al
Cowens,
who finished second in voting for the American League MVP in 1977 and
played 13 years in the big leagues, was a 75th-round
find of the Kansas City Royals in 1969.
31.
Draft at WAR
As
baseball has evolved into a more-sophisticated, analytical age, with
an increasing number of tools or measurements to gauge player
performance, one of the more-popular and trusted formulas is WAR
(Wins Above Replacement, which effectively is an attempt by the
Sabremetric community to summarize a player’s total contribution to
his team through one, all-encompassing number). The application can
conveniently be applied to players in any era, including over the
life of the draft, though its value inherently favors players with
the service time needed to accumulate a representative WAR score
through a period of years. The highest WAR value for a drafted
player, as determined by Baseball Reference? Barry
Bonds,
at 162.5. He has a sizeable lead over Roger
Clemens
(140.3), who is followed in order by Alex
Rodriguez
(115.9), Rickey Henderson
(110.7), Tom Seaver
(110.5), Greg Maddux
(106.8), Mike Schmidt
(106.5), Randy Johnson
(102.1), Cal Ripken Jr.
(95.6) and Bert Blyleven
(95.4)—all Hall-of-Fame caliber performers. Albert
Pujols,
a 1999 draft pick, leads all active players (not counting Rodriguez,
who was suspended for the 2014 season) with a grade of 93.0, while
Justin Verlander
(40.8) is tops among players drafted since 2004.
32. Multiple-Sport Options: Part I
Dave
Winfield
ultimately enjoyed a Hall of Fame career in baseball as a seven-time
Gold-Glove winning-right fielder who amassed 3,110 hits and 456 home
runs over a 22-year career. But before the San Diego Padres drafted
Winfield with the fourth overall pick in 1973 and elected from the
start to develop him an everyday player, Winfield’s options as a
potential professional athlete were almost unlimited as he was
drafted in four different leagues following his graduation from the
University of Minnesota—the American Basketball Association,
National Basketball Association and National Football League, in
addition to baseball. To take his talent one step further, Winfield’s
options in his sport of choice were two-fold as his considerable
exploits as a pitching prospect while in college were more noteworthy
than as an outfielder. Over the life of the baseball draft, there
have been few athletes more decorated or talented than Winfield, but
he is hardly the only baseball draft pick whose talent has crossed
over to a second sport—in Winfield’s case, to a third. He is one
of only three documented athletes in American sports analogs who has
been drafted in three different sports (baseball, football and
basketball), but unlike Mickey
McCarty
(Indians, 1968) and Dave Logan
(Reds, 1972), who both went on to play in the NFL, Winfield stuck to
baseball. Unlike Winfield, who excelled in baseball and basketball at
Minnesota but never played football there (despite being drafted in
that sport as a prospective tight end by the Minnesota Vikings), Noel
Jenke
was a three-sport standout for the Gophers. He focused on football
and hockey initially, and elected to play baseball only as a junior
in 1969, though showed so much promise in that sport that he was
drafted in the first round that year by the Boston Red Sox. He was
also picked by the home-town Vikings in the NFL draft and is on
record as being a draft pick of the NHL’s Chicago Blackhawks,
though there is no documented proof that actually occurred. Jenke
played in the Red Sox system for three years, while also suiting up
in the NFL at the same time, but cast his lot with football after
reaching only Triple-A.
33. Multiple-Sport Options: Part II
In
the 50-year life of the baseball draft, there are plenty of athletes
who have crossed over and been drafted in a second sport besides
baseball. But only one, Connecticut prep righthander and basketball
standout Scott Burrell,
has been a first-rounder in two different drafts. As a high-school
senior in 1989, Burrell was drafted with the 26th
and last pick of the first round by the Seattle Mariners. He didn’t
sign, as it turned out, electing instead to pursue a college
basketball career at Connecticut. Burrell did, however, spend time in
the Toronto Blue Jays farm system a year later when re-drafted in the
fifth round, but his professional baseball career amounted to just 14
games. His focus was on playing basketball at UConn, and he
subsequently cast his lot with that sport when selected in the first
round of the 1993 NBA draft . . . The occurrence of a baseball player
being drafted in a second sport most commonly occurs in football, and
most predominantly with quarterbacks. John
Elway
has made the greatest combined impact as he was a second-rounder in
baseball (Yankees, 1981) prior to becoming the first overall pick in
the 1983 NFL draft. He is one of 15 quarterbacks who has been taken
in the first round of the NFL draft that was a former baseball draft
pick, and the list includes such notables as Archie
Manning
(Braves/43rd round, 1967), Steve Bartkowski
(Orioles/19th round, 1974), Dan
Marino
(Royals/4th round, 1979), Michael Vick
(Rockies/30th round, 2000) and Jake Locker
(Angels/10th round, 2009) . . . Meanwhile, Noel
Jenke
(Red Sox, 1969), Jay Schroeder
(Blue Jays, 1979), Greg
McMurtry (Red
Sox, 1986), Josh Booty
(Marlins,
1994) and Chad Hutchinson
(Braves,
1995) are former baseball first-rounders who also played in the NFL .
. . Mike Kirkland
(Giants/3rd round, 1972), Schroeder, Bubby
Brister
(Tigers/4th round, 1981), Chris
Weinke (Blue
Jays/2nd round, 1990), Brandon Weeden
(Yankees/2nd round, 2002), Pat White
(Angels/4th round, 2004), Dennis Dixon
(Braves/5th round, 2007) and Russell
Wilson
(Rockies/4th round, 2010) are on the short list of quarterbacks who were selected
in the top five rounds of both the football and baseball drafts . . .
Seven former Heisman Trophy winners are former baseball draft
picks—Mike Garrett
(1985), Johnny Rodgers
(1972), Bo Jackson
(1985), Charlie Ward
(1993), Ricky Williams
(1998), Weinke (2000) and Jameis
Winston
(2013) . . . Beyond the relatively-modest baseball-basketball
exploits of Burrell, Cazzie
Russell (Athletics/26th round, 1966) was the first overall pick in the 1966 NBA draft, while
Trajan Langdon
(Padres/6th round, 1994) tested the waters in the Padres system briefly while a
basketball player at Duke, before later becoming a first-round
selection in the NBA draft. Danny
Ainge
(Blue Jays/15th round, 1977), who saw significant time as a young infielder with the
Blue Jays before giving up baseball to fulfill his potential as an
NBA all-star, has probably made the greatest impact of any dual
baseball-basketball talent in the baseball draft era; he had obvious
first-round talent in both sports, but was a first-rounder in neither
. . . Hockey has occasionally weighed into the two-sport equation.
Tom Nevers,
a fifth-round pick of the NHL’s Pittsburgh Penguins in 1989, never
gave more than a passing thought to a hockey career after the Houston
Astros made his a first-round selection in baseball a year later. The
decision was a little more difficult for Tom
Glavine
(Braves/2nd round, 1984) and Kirk
McCaskill
(Angels/4th
round, 1982), who were both fourth-round selections in the NHL.
McCaskill, a finalist for hockey’s Hobey Baker Award (college
hockey’s equivalent of the Heisman), played briefly in the Winnipeg
Jets minor-league system before switching his allegiance back to
baseball and going on to enjoy a 12-year major league career. The
only known baseball drafts ever to actually play in the NHL are
Canadian outfielder Paul
Manning
(Yankees/20th round, 1997), who played in eight NHL games in 2002, and Gary
Sargent
(Twins/22nd round, 1972), who played in 402 NHL games from 1975-83.