2016 Year in Review: College | PG Events | High School
Moniak makes it eight
Mickey Moniak became the eighth Perfect Game All-American to be selected with the first overall pick when the Phillies took the talented prep outfielder to open the 2016 MLB Draft. Moniak, who was praised not only for his advanced hitting abilities but also for his speed and defense, signed with Philadelphia for a $6.1 million bonus and hit .284/.340/.409 in 46 games for the team’s Gulf Coast League rookie affiliate.
He joined Brady Aiken (2014), Carlos Correa (2012), Gerrit Cole (2011), Bryce Harper (2010), Tim Beckham (2008), Justin Upton (2005) and Matt Bush (2004) as the other PG All-Americans that went first overall since the event’s inception in 2003.
Overall Perfect Game events served as an excellent preview for the following year’s draft. From the 2015 PG All-American Classic 17 players were selected on the first day (top two rounds) of the 2016 MLB Draft. Twenty-four total PG All-Americans were taken on the first day, accounting for the college players who were also selected.
The National Showcase also continued to have a big impact on the draft. Thirty-eight of the 77 players selected on the first day had previously attended a Perfect Game Naitonal Showcase event, 17 of which attended the event the previous summer in 2015.
Overall 74 of the first 77 players selected (top two rounds) on Day 1 of the 2016 MLB Draft had previously attended a Perfect Game event.
Gators get bit
Prior to Florida’s fifth appearance in seven years in Omaha for the 2016 College World Series, MLB teams had the opportunity to pick several Gators early in the draft. The A’s took a pair of the team’s weekend starters, beginning with Saturday starter A.J. Puk with the sixth overall pick and later with Friday starter Logan Shore with their second-round selection. Another member of the starting staff, Dane Dunning, went to the Nationals with the 29th overall selection while center fielder Buddy Reed and first baseman Pete Alonso went to the Padres and Mets respectively in the second round. The Gators’ bullpen was also hit hard as closer Shaun Anderson went to the Red Sox in round three and lefthanders Scott Moss and Kirby Snead went to the Reds and Blue Jays in the fourth and 10th rounds respectively.
For as much talent as Florida lost they are still projected to be a top 5 team when Perfect Game’s preseason rankings are released in early- to mid-January. Few programs are as good as the Gators when it comes to recruiting, a tribute to the efforts by Head Coach Kevin O’Sullivan and his staff, as the team once again boasts five players ranked among Perfect Game’s top 100 college prospects for the 2017 MLB Draft, including ace Alex Faedo (ranked second overall), catcher Mike Rivera (16), first baseman/catcher J.J. Schwarz (25), shortstop Dalton Guthrie (33) and second baseman Deacon Liput (78).
Accelerated path for World Series champs
Congratulations to the Chicago Cubs organization, from top to bottom, from their quick turnaround to perennial cellar dweller to World Series champion. We at Perfect Game have been able to follow the careers of so many of the players on their roster for a long time.
That “long time” wasn’t all that long ago considering how recently some of their star players were drafted. Kris Bryant, who was also named the National League MVP one year after securing Rookie of the Year honors, was the second overall pick just three years ago in 2013. Shortstop Addison Russell and outfielder Albert Almora were first-round picks in 2012, Javier Baez was the team’s first-rounder in 2011 and Kyle Schwarber – who made a remarkable comeback to even play in the World Series after tearing the ACL and LCL in his left knee in early April – was the fourth overall pick in 2014.
Dazzling shortstop Francisco Lindor of the American League champion Cleveland Indians spent the entire season, his second in the big leagues, at the age of 22 after being selected eighth overall in the 2011 draft.
In addition to Bryant being named the National League MVP, Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager was named the NL Rookie of the Year after being the 18th pick in the 2012 draft, spending parts of four years in the minor leagues before making his immediate impact at the big league level. Seager’s amazing season at shortstop came one year after Carlos Correa’s, who enjoyed another successful season as the Astros shortstop finishing the season at just 22 years of age.
Correa, Seager and Lindor now form a promising trio of star talent at the shortstop position very similar to the one Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra and Derek Jeter formed in the 1990’s.
Plus, Mike Trout collected his second American MVP award at the age of 25.
Unfortunately the baseball world lost an incredibly talented and vibrant young man when Jose Fernandez lost his life in a tragic boating accident on September 25. Fernandez, who was 24 years old at the time, was enjoying a Cy Young caliber season (he finished seventh in the voting) and was accelerated to the big leagues after being selected 14th overall in the 2011.
Bryant, Almora, Russell, Baez, Fernandez, Lindor, Correa and Seager are all former PG All-Americans.
Expected top picks fall, but not far
Every year there are a handful of players that fall further than expected. Jason Groome, who was the top-ranked player eligible for the 2016 MLB Draft according to Perfect Game’s final draft rankings, ended up sliding to the 12th overall pick (Red Sox). Blake Rutherford, ranked sixth, went 18th overall to the Yankees. Delvin Perez, ranked eighth, ended up being selected 23rd by the Cardinals.
While all of the players signed for values higher than the assigned slot values, none of the three signings were astronomically higher, meaning signability didn’t play as big of a factor for their respective drops. However, it was clear that more and more teams were conscious of those bonus values, something that will be addressed next.
The biggest surprise in the first round came in the form of Hudson Potts, a prep shortstop out of Carroll High School who went 24th overall. The Padres, who selected two premier college arms with their other two first round picks at the eighth and 25th slots (Cal Quantrill and Eric Lauer), and later added three more players with six-figure bonuses (Buddy Reed, Reggie Lawson and Mason Thompson), certainly were looking for a way to save some of their allocated signing pool.
The highest ranked player who fell in the draft was Drew Mendoza, who was ranked 21st overall and is now at Florida State after the Tigers took a flyer on him in the 36th round.
Signability at the forefront
Signability once again played a huge part of the players teams selected in the draft. Only one player, PG All-American Nick Lodolo (who is now at TCU), went unsigned of those selected on the first day (top two rounds), and there was only one other player who went unsigned in the top 10 rounds (Tyler Buffet, seventh round, Astros). In fact it wasn’t until the 13th round in which there were more than three unsigned players from any given round.
The Phillies saved nearly $3 million of their allotted bonus money in the bonus they inked Moniak for which allowed them to sign their second-round pick, Kevin Gowdy, to a $3.5 million bonus and their third-round pick, Cole Stobbe, to a $1.1 million bonus. The Reds managed their pool allotment in a way that allowed them to sign their top three picks – Nick Senzel, Taylor Trammell and Chris Okey – to a signficiant combined amount and the Braves used a similar tactic to get Ian Anderson, Joey Wentz, Kyle Muller and even fourth-round pick Bryse Wilson in the fold.
And as noted above, the San Diego Padres, with three first-round picks, locked up a total of six players to six digit signing bonuses. They also signed another nine players after the 10th round to five-figure bonuses, including a combined $1,015,000 on their 15th and 28th round selections, Jack Suwinski and Ethan Skender.
More change to come
Major League Baseball and the Player’s Union agreed on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement just before the Winter Meetings in early December with some significant changes to the draft. The exact details of the draft have been chronicled elsewhere, and will be a little harder to determine since you can no longer use the reverse standings from the previous season to easily determine which teams draft where and for what reasons.
Teams that lose a free agent that rejects a qualifying offer no longer simply receive a compensatory selection after the first round. Instead, it depends where that teams stands among MLB’s revenue sharing plan. Teams that lose a free agent (if that free agent signs a deal worth at least $50 million) and that receive revenue sharing are awarded a supplemental pick after the first round. Teams that lose a free agent that contribute to the revenue sharing plan are awarded a compensatory pick after the fourth round. The teams that fall in between receive a compensatory selection after the Competitive Balance Round B, which follows the second round.
The same thresholds are in place for teams that sign free agents that received a qualifying offer in regards to the draft picks they lose. Teams that sign a free agent that receive revenue sharing lose their third highest selection. Teams that sign a free agent that contribute to the revenue sharing plan lose their second and fifth highest picks, and they also lose $1 million from their international signing pool. The teams that sign free agents that fall in between the two categories lose their second highest pick and have their international signing pool reduced by $500,000.
The Competitive Balance Rounds of the draft have been tweaked as well. These rounds followed the first and second rounds of the draft and were determined via a lottery. Now those teams are pre-determined and will remain the same during the five-year life of the new CBA, but they will alternate beginning in 2017.
In 2017, 2019 and 2021 the Rays, Reds, A’s, Brewers, Twins and Marlins will have picks in the Competitive Balance Round A which will occur after compensatory draft picks are awarded after the first round. In 2018 and 2020 those teams will have picks in the Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the second round and before compensatory picks for free agents are determined.
These designations are also tied to the international bonus pools, with the teams in Round A receiving a $5.25 million pool and teams in Round B receiving a $5.75 million pool.
Any team not part of the Competitive Balance rounds will receive $4.75 million to spend on international signings. This is a hard cap. It also should be noted there will be no worldwide draft over the five-year life of the newly ratified CBA.
Teams can also still trade international pool money, but teams cannot receive more than 75 percent of their initial pool value, meaning the hard caps could range from $8.31 million to just over $10.06 million, before taking any reductions due to free agent activity into account.
The slotting of values to determine a team’s bonus pool for the top 10 rounds also have been altered, as well as the different penalties the teams would incur if they exceed their allotted bonus pool. The difference from the first overall pick (which was $9 million in 2016 and is expected to be $7.4 million in 2017) is expected to be spread more evenly from the first pick to the last, creating smaller overall differences between teams overall bonus pools.
Basically, “small market” teams get penalized less harshly for signing free agents and receive better compensatory picks for losing them as compared to larger market clubs. However, the overall distribution of pool values will be more evenly distributed.