2015 MLB Draft Preview Content | Bregman, Rodgers go 2-3 in Draft | Shortstops go 1-2-3 in MLB Draft
After
three days, 40 rounds, and 1,215 total picks the 2015 MLB Draft ended
on Wednesday evening with the Angels’ selection of righthanded
pitcher Jacob McDavid of Oral Roberts University. As many of us at
Perfect Game turn our attention to the subsequent draft classes,
let’s take a brief look at some of the organizations that stood out
for their selections.
As
with any sort of instant analysis, this exercise, like mock drafts,
are often futile, based in speculation, and extremely subjective.
None of these players have played even an inning with their
organizations, and there are so many variables in successful player
development that even the most talented amateur players face a tough,
uphill battle to achieve their dreams of establishing themselves as
big leaguers. Similarly, while there will always unfortunately be
high-profile players and draft selections that don’t pan out as
expected, there will certainly be late round sleepers that most
(outside of the area scout that signed him and an organization’s
player development staff) did not see coming.
So
with all those caveats aside, and recognizing that it takes years and
a holistic approach to completely analyze an organization’s draft
efforts, here are some of the clubs that stood out to me over the
last three days.
Standouts
Cleveland
Indians
Long
considered darlings of the amateur draft, the Indians turned in a
typically strong effort in 2015. They’ve shown their affinity with
high school pitchers and college bats in the last few draft classes,
and they stuck with that approach early on, perhaps dropping one of
the biggest bombshells of Monday night with their selection Brady
Aiken at 17 overall. The 2013 Perfect Game All-American’s story
has been well-detailed, and it is safe to say that had he remained
healthy, Aiken would have certainly been a Top-5 pick, if not the
first overall selection. Selecting him at 17 represents an
aggressive approach, but one that has tremendous value. They stuck
with prep arms in their two subsequent picks on Monday in Florida
preps Triston McKenzie and Juan Hillman, both Perfect Game
All-Americans in their own right. They both offer an advanced feel
for pitching at such a young age and project to add more velocity,
especially McKenzie. Given Cleveland’s strong track record of
developing pitching the selection of arguably the top pitching
prospect when healthy (Aiken), a super-projectable righty with a
present feel for the craft (McKenzie), and arguably the most polished
prep pitcher in the draft (Hillman) this trio could be considered a
coup in terms of overall value at the 17,42, and 59 spots.
Cleveland
also did a strong job in taking up-the-middle college performers in
the middle rounds, with Mark Mathias, Tyler Kreiger, and Ka’ai Tom
presenting athletic options with strong college track records.
Mathias in particular had a strong summer in 2014 for USA Collegiate
National Team, and continued to demonstrate an advanced hit tool this
spring.
Finally,
Cleveland got some good value and balanced their portfolio both in
terms of “risk” and age, mixing in a variety of college and high
school players in further rounds. They were able to grab Jonas Wyatt
a high school righthanded pitcher, our 89th ranked player
overall, in the sixth round and also pounced on Cal State Fullerton’s
Justin Garza who fell to the eighth round following a UCL tear and
subsequent Tommy John Surgery. They also selected strong college
performers in switch-pitcher Ryan Perez (12th round),
catcher Daniel Salters (13), Matt Esparza (14), and Connor Marabell
(25) and a fair amount of high-upside high school players that they
may choose to make a late run in signing in Daniel Sprinkle (15),
Nick Madrigal (17), Luke Wakamatsu (20), Austin Rubick (27), and
Tristin English (39).
Tampa
Bay Rays
The
Rays have faced recent, and in my mind unfair, criticism for their
drafts due in large part to their 2011 draft in which they had an
unprecedented 11 of the first 75 selections. Some of those players
have not performed as hoped up to this point, but as mentioned
previously player development especially for kids drafted directly
out of high school is not often a smooth, linear trajectory. In my mind
they’ve been able to add a significant amount of talent to the
system in the past three days, adding to a strong and underrated crop
of players from the 2014 draft.
They
pounced on Garrett Whitley, the ultra-athletic outfielder from New
York State, with the 13th overall selection and followed
it up with Chris Betts at the 52nd overall selection.
Betts had seemingly fallen for signability concerns because the
catcher from Southern California was considered a first-round talent.
Provided that the Rays are able to sign Betts, the selection at 52
represents great value and would add to their enviable depth of minor
league catching (Nick Ciuffo, Justin O’Conner, Luke Maile).
After
their first two selections the Rays went very college heavy, but many
of these selections are not cost-saving measures or low-upside
talents. Instead, they went after Dallas Baptist’s fireballing
righty Brandon Koch (4), Maryland’s breakout second baseman Brandon
Lowe (3), a high-upside college bat that has battled injuries in Joe
McCarthy (5), and a senior righthanded starting pitcher that enjoyed
a velocity bump this season in Benton Moss (6). In the seventh round
they selected Jacob Cronenworth, who many evaluators preferred as a
pitcher, and announced him as a second baseman (where he also played
for Michigan), although he has the talent and ability to return to
the mound if things at the keystone don’t pan out.
Other
strong performing college selections include Ian Gibaut (11) out of
Tulane, David Olmedo-Barrera (12) who helped lead Cal State Fullerton
back to Omaha, Tyler Brashears (14) from Hawaii, Danny De la Calle
(9) from Florida State, and Kewby Meyer (37) from
Nevada. Finally, although they didn’t select many preps after the
first two rounds, late-round selections Devin Davis and Joey Bart are
righthanded bats with some upside, that they could also choose to
pursue.
Chicago
Cubs
After
a 2014 draft in which they surprised many by selecting Kyle Schwarber
fourth overall, the Cubs again went with another advanced college bat
with their first selection. Happ, like Schwarber, has an uncertain
defensive home, with the Cubs announcing him as an outfielder. Many
expected the Cubs to take a college pitcher, but Happ, like Schwarber
last year may be one of the most underrated position players in the
draft. Many people I’ve talked to feel as if Happ at ninth overall
is good value, and like they did with Schwarber last season, the Cubs
may be able to go a bit under slot and use the savings for some high
school targets. They followed suit with their second pick, selecting
another polished college outfielder in Donnie Dewees with the 47th overall pick.
As
they did last year after locking up a few strong college performers,
the Cubs turner their attention to a prep southpaw, this year
electing to go with Illinois native Bryan Hudson. Hudson flew up
draft boards this spring and offers a high upside with a mid-90s
fastball and a very solid breaking ball. Similarly, the Cubs
targeted another prep player, outfielder Darryl Wilson with their fourth-round pick. Wilson, a speedy speedy outfielder from Ohio is a
Vanderbilt commit.
In
the middle and later rounds the Cubs targeted (in my mind) a great
mix of college seniors with a strong track record of performance
(David Berg, Preston Morrison, Tyler Peitzmeier, Vimael Machin,
Sutton Whiting), juniors with upside but may have underperformed this
past season and could come cheaper than originally thought (Ryan
Kellogg, Kyle Twomey, Jake Kelzer, Scott Effross, Ian Rice), and some
late fliers on high-upside prep talent that they may be able to sign
if other dominos fall (Alonzo Jones, Jared Padgett, Dominic DeRenzo).
Overall, it appears to be a very balanced draft class, and one with
both upside and a relatively high floor.
Boston
Red Sox
Like
the Cubs, I thought that the Red Sox did a quality job in balancing
their selections well. They had a good mix of college and high
school players. Their first two selections were big-time helium guys
this spring, none more-so than their first-round pick in super
sophomore, Arkansas outfielder Andrew Benintendi. Austin Rei, a
catcher from the University of Washington, was their next pick at 81
overall and he also took a huge step forward this spring and
showcased an improved feel at the plate and burgeoning power. While
he’s not particularly toolsy, Tate Matheny is a polished college
outfielder and represents solid value in the fourth round. Similarly,
their fifth-round selection, California prep Jagger Rusconi is a very
polished switch-hitter, but has some defensive question marks which
may be why the club announced him as an outfielder instead of a
shortstop of second baseman. Still, Rusconi has an advanced feel for
the barrel for a high school player, and he’ll be an interesting
player to watch develop.
Assuming
that they’ll be able to sign him, Boston’s selection of Logan
Allen in the eighth round represents very good value. Allen, who has
continually performed well in big events, is a very polished high
school southpaw who was regarded as more of a 3-4 round talent.
Boston
selected a fair amount of college seniors, but Mitchell Gunsolous
(10) and Bobby Poyner (14) are very legitimate pro prospects and both
had very strong 2015 seasons for their college teams. The Red Sox
also took some perceived fliers on high school players in the later
rounds, but they’ve shown that they have the resources and ability
to sign a number of such players in the later rounds (Devon Fisher in
2014, Nick Longhi in 2013, etc.). With that in mind, their chances
of signing high-upside prep talents like Nick Hamilton (11) and Danny
Reyes (39) in the rounds outside of the bonus pools may be better
than one would expect.
Finally,
the Red Sox also selected a couple of notable college players who
have shown flashes of real ability but have been inconsistent in
putting it all together. Marc Brakeman, lefthanded pitcher out of
Stanford, and Kyri Washington, outfielder from Longwood, are two
players with the upside to warrant top five-round consideration.
However, their track record in college has been spotty. If the player
development staff is able to help them reach their ceiling the 16th and 23rd round selections will reap tremendous benefits.
Houston
Astros
The
Astros certainly benefited, if one could say that after losing out on
Brady Aiken, Jacob Nix, and Mac Marshall, with an extra pick in the
first round. With two picks in the top five and a huge bonus pool,
the Astros were able to approach the draft in any way they saw fit.
They decided to take Alex Bregman with the second pick and prep
outfielder Kyle Tucker at five. Leading up to the draft many had
expected that the Astros would select Daz Cameron with one of their
first two selections, but after their selection of Tucker he fell
significantly because of rumored signing bonus demands. Luckily, the
Astros with their aforementioned large bonus pool were the
benefactors again, as they were able to snatch him up with the 37th overall pick and should be able to satisfy his asking price.
Their
first three selections of arguably three of the top 10, if not the
top six overall talents in the draft class represents an amazing coup
and may help to heal any of the wounds still remaining from last
year’s draft. However, the rest of their draft should not be
overlooked either. Thomas Eshelman (2) has been perhaps the most
consistent college starting pitcher over the last three seasons, and
Riley Ferrell (3) and Trent Thorton (5) are two college relievers
that have shown flashes of dominance at times over the course of
their careers. Jeff Lunhow and co. are also well-renowned for taking
factors like age and other demographic profiles into account, and
their sixth-round selection, Nestor Muriel, an outfielder from Puerto
Rico is the youngest player in the draft and doesn’t even turn 17
until next week. In the later rounds the Astros went after some
talented prep pitchers in Patrick Sandoval, Cole Sands, and Luken
Baker, who while appear headed for college, have high upside and may
be willing to sign if the Astros can meet their figures. Finally,
like many other teams the Astros were able to select a number of
polished college players with solid performance in Garrett Stubbs
(well-regarded for his receiving), Michael Freeman, Kevin Martir,
Johnny Sewald and Bobby Wernes.
Colorado
Rockies
The
Rockies were extremely aggressive with their first six selections,
which comprised rounds 1-4. Five of those six selections were high
school players, with the most notable and high-profile picks being
Brendan Rodgers and Mike Nikorak, Perfect Game’s top-ranked prep
shortstop and righthanded pitcher, respectively. Their other
selections in Tyler Nevin, Peter Lambert, and Javier Medina should
not be overlooked, however, as each of the three offer big-time
talent and impressive polish and feel for the game as teenagers. San
Diego’s David Hill was the only college selection of the first four
rounds, and he had a great junior season for the Toreros.
After
their early flurry of prep selections, Colorado focused more on
college options, with polished starting pitchers Parker French (5),
Jack Wynkoop (6), Colin Welmon (8), and Trey Killian (9) comprising a
solid crop of middle-round picks. The Rockies did aggressively
pursue some other high school players with projection and upside in
some of the later rounds with the highly projectable southpaw Michael
Zimmerman (11), physical catcher Wyatt Cross (33), and bulldog righty
Andy Pagnozzi (36) particularly catching the eye.
Other
Quick Hits
St.
Louis Cardinals
Is
it any surprise to see the Cardinals on a draft list? Their selection
of Nick Plummer broke the mold a bit, as they hadn’t selected a
prep position player with their first pick in years (Pete Kozma,
2007). However, Plummer has been regarded as one of the more polished
players in the batter’s box and scouts feel that he has a great
chance to hit and be productive, even if he profiles in a corner
outfield slot. Their subsequent two picks, Jake Woodford and Bryce
Denton are athletic high school players that project very well. The
Cardinals’ third- and fourth-round selections, Harrison Bader and
Paul DeJong are productive college bats with some swing-and-miss but
solid power potential from the right hand side. The Cardinals also
targeted some higher upside prep products that would be huge gets if
they were able to sign. Kep Brown is one of the more intriguing bats
in the draft, but he was hampered by an Achillies injury this spring,
and Cadyn Grenier, Kyle Monar, Matt Vierling, and Parker Kelly all
offer a strong feel for the game and significant projection.
Finally, although both players may go back to school to boost their
draft stock, the Cardinals did well to draft TCU’s Mitchell Traver
and Pacific’s Gio Brusa, players with upside but questions about
injury history and inconsistent performance, respectively.
Texas
Rangers
The
Rangers have been known to be ultra-aggressive and they were
certainly that over the past three days. Their first round selection
of Dillon Tate was certainly not a reach by any stretch of the
imagination as he performed extremely well this season and has
big-time stuff, but he does have a limited track record as a starting
pitcher. More aggressive and potentially high-risk, high-reward
selections include Mike Matuella (3), Jake Lemoine (4), and Tyler
Ferguson (6), righthanders with big time stuff but injury and command
questions abound.
Atlanta
Braves
Atlanta
went extremely pitching heavy, with 13 of their first 16 picks being
pitchers. They appear to have gotten great value with their first
selection at No. 14 with their pick of Koby Allard, a top five talent
if not for a back injury that kept him out of his spring season. They
took some risk in A.J. Minter, who underwent Tommy John surgery this
spring, but he’s a power pitcher from the left side and the Braves
had their fair share of players undergo Tommy John surgery and
rehab/return with the club (Kris Medlen, Brandon Beachy, etc.) They
also seemed to focus on acquiring power arms in drafting Matt Withrow
(brother of Chris) and Patrick Wiegel in the sixth and seventh rounds
respectively.
Milwaukee
Brewers
In
Ray Montgomery’s first season as scouting director, after the
unfortunate passing of the late Bruce Seid, the Brewers were very
aggressive in snatching up big upside guys later in the draft. While
the chances of signing players such as Justin Hooper, Donny Everett,
Jon India, Charlie Donovan, Tristan Beck, and Nolan Kingham may be
slim, if they are able to nab even one of that group it would be a
big boost to the farm system. Their earlier selections were notable
as well with it looking like Milwaukee was the benefactors of some
players sliding down draft boards late. Nathan Kirby, Cody Ponce,
and Demi Orimoloye all appear to be solid value picks at 40, 55, and
121 respectively, with Orimoloye in particular showing extremely high
upside and the potential to be the first Nigerian-born player in MLB.
Late snatching up of big upside guys, probably not signable; finding
good value for guys that seemed to be higher, but fell down for
whatever reasons.
Miami
Marlins
The
Marlins made a bit of a splash in selecting Josh Naylor with the 12th overall pick. While he has tremendous raw power and is a good athlete
for his size, many expected Naylor to be selected in the 30-60 range.
The rest of their draft wasn’t very flashy or littered with
big-time names, but Brett Lilek, Cody Poteet, and Justin Jacome are
all solid college arms from the West Coast that have the potential to
help out a big league club.
Pittsburg
Pirates
The
Pirates, seemingly going with the best player available approach,
selected three straight infielders with their top three picks, two of
which profile best at third base. First-rounder Kevin Newman is a
true shortstop while Ke’Bryan Hayes and Kevin Kramer both have
played shortstop in their amateur careers but fit better at the hot
corner, although Kramer can also play at second base. Interestingly,
the Pirates only selected five high school players.
Scouts
that Cleaned Up
New
York Mets (Florida)
Even
though most, if not all teams, currently divide the state of Florida
among at least two area scouts, it still bears mentioning that the
Mets drafted 10 players from the state of Florida. Four of their
first five selections were from schools in Florida.
New
York Yankees (Southern California)
Three
of the Yankees’ top four picks were from the Southern California
area, as James Kaprielian (UCLA), Kyle Holder (San Diego), and Drew
Finley (Rancho Bernardo HS) likely made all the trips up and down I-5
worth it. The Southern California scout can also lay claim to three
other solid college selections in Zach Zehner (Cal Poly), Garrett
Mundell (Fresno State), and Mark Seyler (San Diego State).
Kansas
City Royals (Midwest/Indiana)
I’m
not sure how the Royals break down their regions or assign their area
scouts, but as David Rawnsely pointed out, it’s safe to say that
the Royals’ scout for Indiana enjoyed a career-defining night on
Monday. Kansas City’s top two selections featured high-octane prep
arms from Indiana, as Ashe Russell out of Cathedral High School in
Indianapolis was selected 21st overall and Nolan Watson
(from nearby Lawrence North High School) followed 12 picks later in
the compensation round. To top it off Brian Bayliss from St.
Joseph’s College in Rensselaer, Indiana was selected in the 18th round.