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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » By poll, which would be the best national seeds?

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4/28/2014 7:45:43 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Too much effort to list them all and the 9 through 16 pairs, but look at these polls' (and two computer algorithms') top eights and tell me which you think has it about right and which would be way off if we seeded the top eight this way. I'm not concerned what order 1 through 8 they are, but I am curious which one do you think would provide the best top eight and the best regional representation. Go ahead and rank them in order of best to worst.

In no particular order:

NCBWA
1. Virginia
2. Oregon State
3. Louisiana-Lafayette
4. Cal Poly
5. LSU
6. Florida State
7. South Carolina
8. Louisville

ESPN
1 Virginia
2 Louisiana-Lafayette
3 Oregon State
4 Florida State
5 Cal Poly
6 LSU
7 South Carolina
8 Louisville

Perfect Game
1 Virginia
2 Louisiana-Lafayette
3 Oregon State
4 Florida
5 Louisiana State
6 Florida State
7 Washington
8 South Carolina

Collegiate Baseball
1. Virginia
2. Oregon St.
3. Cal. Poly
4. Miami, Fla.
5. Florida St.
6. Louisiana-Lafayette
7. Washington
8. Florida

Baseball America
1. Virginia
2. Oregon State
3. Louisiana-Lafayette
4. Cal Poly
5. Florida
6. Florida State
7. Washington
8. LSU

Boyd’s ISRs
1. Oregon State
2. Cal Poly
3. Louisiana-Lafayette
4. Virginia
5. Washington
6. Florida State
7. Texas
8. Mississippi

Rat’s Patootie Index
1. Virginia
2. Indiana
3. Florida
4. Mississippi
5. Florida State
6. South Carolina
7. Rice
8. Vanderbilt
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4/29/2014 7:40:46 AM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 218
Good post. Since I know that the RPI is the one that is going to be most accurate on selection day, I'll throw that out and just look at the others.

The one closest to my own personal top 8 is Perfect Game, matching 5 of my 8. All of the others matched 4 of 8. In my opinion, the biggest misses are on Louisville, La-Lafayette, Cal Poly and Washington.
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4/29/2014 3:44:20 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1216
I like BA, with the exception of Florida. Looking at their complete record (not just in conference) they really do not belong. 15 losses, some, not all, but some to teams with pathetic records. I think the SEC this year is over rated for strength. I think most of the teams are average with no real standouts, yet they have a high SOS.
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4/29/2014 5:03:00 PM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 218
Florida Beaver wrote:
I think the SEC this year is over rated for strength. I think most of the teams are average with no real standouts, yet they have a high SOS.


I guess it's just the fact that none of them are bad, either. The good teams in the P12 are being bogged down by the really bad teams at the bottom. That's not happening in the SEC this year. There are only three teams under .600, much less under .500. But I agree with you that none of the teams at the top are overwhelmingly great.

As a side note, when I looked at the Pac-12 standings, Arizona jumped out at me. Maybe I'm spoiled by our soon-to-be 42 year post-season streak, but how in the world does a program like Arizona ever allow itself to get that bad, even for one season. I get the Pac-12 losses, but those dudes are getting swept by Seton Hall and losing to Utah Valley.
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4/29/2014 7:33:54 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
MiamiBaseball wrote:
Good post. Since I know that the RPI is the one that is going to be most accurate on selection day, I'll throw that out and just look at the others.
Big Grin

Anybody else would throw it out because it's the LEAST accurate right now.
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4/29/2014 8:26:34 PM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 218
Dodger Matt wrote:
MiamiBaseball wrote:
Good post. Since I know that the RPI is the one that is going to be most accurate on selection day, I'll throw that out and just look at the others.
Big Grin

Anybody else would throw it out because it's the LEAST accurate right now.


Based on......?
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4/29/2014 10:10:19 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
The expert opinion of the baseball gods, of course.

Four of the polls above it have three western teams; three of them have four. The RPI has zero. That's a major flaw that makes it an outlier. And while you could say there is no factual indicator that will dictate with absolute certainty that there will be one or two or three western national seeds, I doubt even you would proclaim right now that the RPI or the selection committee will decide to have zero teams in the West in the top eight.

But we'll see, won't we? In the meantime, the RPI looks the most ridiculously skewed. To be fair, the ISR does not look-- well, I take it back before I say it because to me it DOES look much better. But I don't think the top eight will look like that list either. I don't know which one I think is most accurate. I was hoping for more discussion on that. I don't think Washington will still be up there after their visit to Corvallis, but you never know. And like you, I am as suspicious of Cal Poly as I am of ULL, but if they play out like they have been, it will be hard to deny them in favor of a fourth SEC team. Especially since each of tthose four teams will be playing at least one of the other three over the next few weeks. And since they're not from Lake Wobegone, they can't all win.
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4/30/2014 1:49:14 AM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 1111
Official NCAA weekly RPI release: http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/baseball/d1/rpi

Beavs did jump 13 places.
edited by OpihiMan on 4/30/2014
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4/30/2014 1:53:14 AM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 1111
I'd go collegiate baseball. ULL, is done though...unless 4-6 teams above them collapse they won't be able to recover as their RPI will continue to dip. They'll probably get to host at least and I think that is fair.
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4/30/2014 6:33:55 AM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 218
Dodger Matt wrote:
The expert opinion of the baseball gods, of course.

Four of the polls above it have three western teams; three of them have four. The RPI has zero. That's a major flaw that makes it an outlier. And while you could say there is no factual indicator that will dictate with absolute certainty that there will be one or two or three western national seeds, I doubt even you would proclaim right now that the RPI or the selection committee will decide to have zero teams in the West in the top eight.


No, but I only think there is one western national seed, and the RPI has Oregon State close enough to count.

Here's why all of those human polls are flawed: they only go by record and recent results. They all have Cal Poly near the top because they have won almost every series. But if you look at their schedule, the crown jewel of their accomplishments is a 2-1 series win over UCSB. They don't even have a single win over another team that is going to make the tournament. They absolutely DO NOT have a national seed resume, yet all of these human polls have them in the top 5. In that regard, the RPI is the only one that has it right.

Flip it and look at Ole Miss. They aren't pretty enough to show up on the humans' radars, but they have a fantastic resume. They are 13-9 against the top 50, Cal Poly is 2-2. Ole Miss has just four more losses against an exponentially tougher schedule.

Bottom line: human polls are virtually worthless because it's "what have you done for me lately". And that's not how we should evaluate an entire baseball season.
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4/30/2014 9:13:38 AM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 218
I never get a response to this, but last year's top 10 on selection day were:

ISR - North Carolina, Vanderbilt, CS Fullerton, LSU, Oregon State, Virginia, Oregon, Florida St, NC State, Miss. St
RPI - North Caolina, Vanderbilt, Virginia, LSU, Oregon State, CS Fullerton, NC State, Florida St, Oregon, Miss. St

Exact same teams, and eight of ten spots were identical. On the two differences, the team that was higher in the RPI went further into the tournament.

Again this week, how about if we just let it all play out and see how similar they really are.
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4/30/2014 10:14:32 AM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 218
FYI - Washington is in the midst of 13 straight RPI killers, and they're already 2-3 in that stretch, down to #29. I think the national seed ship has sailed in those parts.
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4/30/2014 7:18:43 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
MiamiBaseball wrote:
Here's why all of those human polls are flawed: they only go by record and recent results.

Bottom line: human polls are virtually worthless because it's "what have you done for me lately". And that's not how we should evaluate an entire baseball season.

Seriously? Everyone on this board complains to Kendall because he relies so heavily on PG's scouting assessments of teams and their strengths/weaknesses and doesn't take into account "what have you done for me lately". Coaches, the writers, people who watch baseball closely--they don't consider intangibles such as, they lost a close series and it could have gone their way, or their record sucks right now, but they have the talent and will turn the tide once their injured players return to the lineup? IOW, the human polls behave like automatons and don't make human judgments based on what they see with their own eyes; they only judge by records? Interesting....

As for the ISR vs. RPI last year, I did my own comparison a few years back for more than just one season. I believe Boyd has done as much himself. What I saw was that when the two systems had differences in paired teams, the higher-ranked ISR team more frequently outperformed the higher-ranked RPI team. Not significantly higher, but higher. Since you have access to the data and the formulas, perhaps you could compare more than just last year. Look at how teams that were ranked higher in ISR performed compared to teams ranked higher in RPI, with a large enough data set to form some meaningful analysis.

Here's something else you could look into if you have time. Because you say the RPI is "more accurate" or will be more accurate (because it is used as the official yardstick, presumably; not because its accuracy is objectively agreed upon). So find the chosen eight national seeds for some number of recent years. Then do an ISR vs. RPI analysis of those teams at five weeks, ten weeks, and fifteen weeks. Let's see which system identifies them sooner.
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4/30/2014 7:20:20 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
MiamiBaseball wrote:
FYI - Washington is in the midst of 13 straight RPI killers, and they're already 2-3 in that stretch, down to #29. I think the national seed ship has sailed in those parts.

As I predicted. But I was expecting that ship to wait at the pier until the Beavers got on board May 18.
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4/30/2014 8:06:14 PM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 218
Dodger Matt wrote:

Seriously? Everyone on this board complains to Kendall because he relies so heavily on PG's scouting assessments of teams and their strengths/weaknesses and doesn't take into account "what have you done for me lately". Coaches, the writers, people who watch baseball closely--they don't consider intangibles such as, they lost a close series and it could have gone their way, or their record sucks right now, but they have the talent and will turn the tide once their injured players return to the lineup? IOW, the human polls behave like automatons and don't make human judgments based on what they see with their own eyes; they only judge by records? Interesting....


Yes, seriously. Why do you think Cal Poly dropped from #3 to #9 this week? Why is Miami now #12 after being unranked for the first half of the season? Why did Alabama go from #8 to #14? Why did Oregon drop? Why is TCU climbing the ladder? I thought everyone knew this about the polls. If it was all about scouting assessments and strengths/ weaknesses, the poll would never change. If you win your weekend series, you either hold steady or move up. If you lose, you drop. This is pretty obvious. Start with the pre-season poll and go week by week and you'll see what I'm talking about.

Dodger Matt wrote:

As for the ISR vs. RPI last year, I did my own comparison a few years back for more than just one season. I believe Boyd has done as much himself. What I saw was that when the two systems had differences in paired teams, the higher-ranked ISR team more frequently outperformed the higher-ranked RPI team. Not significantly higher, but higher. Since you have access to the data and the formulas, perhaps you could compare more than just last year. Look at how teams that were ranked higher in ISR performed compared to teams ranked higher in RPI, with a large enough data set to form some meaningful analysis.


They aren't predictors, so that's a pretty meaningless task. The point I was making is that they end up with darn near the same top ten. If the RPI is broken, then the ISR must be broken, because they give us the same teams. The biggest favor you can do for yourself is to stop looking at them in April. Nothing matters until the final rankings on selection Monday. You get all worked up before the schedules work everything out.

Dodger Matt wrote:
Here's something else you could look into if you have time. Because you say the RPI is "more accurate" or will be more accurate (because it is used as the official yardstick, presumably; not because its accuracy is objectively agreed upon). So find the chosen eight national seeds for some number of recent years. Then do an ISR vs. RPI analysis of those teams at five weeks, ten weeks, and fifteen weeks. Let's see which system identifies them sooner.


That might be the most pointless thing I've ever heard. Who cares where anyone is ranked in week 5? I've shown you in other threads why it means NOTHING until May 26th. Look at Washington's schedule. They had this neat little RPI, now their schedule is loaded with dogs. It means nothing until every game is played.
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4/30/2014 8:17:01 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
All right whatever. Why bother posting here then? Why comment at all?

Pssssssssssssssssss.........
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4/30/2014 8:39:48 PM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 218
Huh? Please don't be one of those guys who runs away when the discussion gets too advanced.
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4/30/2014 10:09:05 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
You've basically said the RPI is king and all other discussion is pointless. So what else is there to say? And please stop with the condescension. It's so puerile and tiresome.

As for the robotic nonthinking rises and falls of teams in the human polls, why aren't the human polls based on winning percentage alone then?

And do you think you can find a way to reply without the attitude?
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5/1/2014 7:05:50 AM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 218
Dodger Matt wrote:
You've basically said the RPI is king and all other discussion is pointless. So what else is there to say?


Not "basically", that IS what I am saying. Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to end your ISR threads. Talk about that stuff all you want. But it's still pointless. The committee will ignore the ISR, they will ignore the human rankings, and they will select their field based on RPI measures. Have you noticed that Kendall himself ignores his own top 25 when projecting the field? It's because he knows that the RPI is what will determine the field of 64.

Dodger Matt wrote:
As for the robotic nonthinking rises and falls of teams in the human polls, why aren't the human polls based on winning percentage alone then?


Because of how the teams were ranked in the pre-season. Look, I've given you every tool you need. Start with the pre-season poll, then look week by week. If you don't think that teams rise and fall based solely on the previous week, then let's just stop talking about it. Maybe you'll eventually figure out why Fullerton, Mississippi State, and UCLA are no longer in Kendall's top eight.
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5/1/2014 6:49:47 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1458
Looks like I missed some lively discussion. With only a 6th grade education, I'm not sure I am qualified to participate, but when time permits, I may need to share my thoughts.
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