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Minors  | General  | 12/11/2014

BP Top Prospects: Orioles

Chris Mellen      Baseball Prospectus     
Photo: Perfect Game

To read the full feature, including reports on the Baltimore Orioles top 10 prospects, please visit this link.

Last year’s Orioles list

The Top Ten
  1. RHP Dylan Bundy
  2. RHP Hunter Harvey
  3. Chance Sisco
  4. 1B Christian Walker
  5. CF Josh Hart
  6. RHP Zach Davies
  7. RHP Mike Wright
  8. LHP Tim Berry
  9. LHP Stephen Tarpley
  10. OF Mike Yastrzemski


1. Dylan Bundy

Position: RHP
DOB: 11/15/1992
Height/Weight: 6’1” 195 lbs
Bats/Throws: S/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1
st round, 2011 draft, Owasso HS (Owasso, OK)
Previous Ranking: #2 (Org), #15 (Top 101)
2014 Stats: 4.78 ERA (26.1 IP, 28 H, 15 K, 13 BB) at High-A Frederick, 0.60 ERA (15 IP, 10 H, 22 K, 3 BB) at short-season Aberdeen
The Tools: 7 FB; 6 CB; 8 potential CT; 7 potential CH

What Happened in 2014: The 22-year-old right-hander made his return to the mound after missing all of 2013 due to Tommy John. The results were mixed, but eventually the stuff started to show a return to previous form.

Strengths: Extremely athletic; body put together well; near-elite arm strength; smooth arm action; crisp delivery; repeatable; fastball will work 94-97; exploding late life and finish; creates tight spin and rotation with curve; hard snap from high three-quarters arm slot; deep, bending break with teeth and heavy downward action; present plus offering; change shows good guise to fastball; solid arm-side fading action; crisp with cutter when throws in sequences; late glove-side break and slice; can both miss barrels and create weak contact; power-arm potential.

Weaknesses: Runs into ruts of not finishing delivery; command suffers as a result; fastball will work too elevated; can be loose with curveball; lacks finish and will drift into upper tier of zone; change gets too firm; inconsistent action; overall arsenal still in the stages of returning to form; fastball velocity yet to reach prior levels; re-finding feel for cutter.

Overall Future Potential: High 7; no. 1 starter

Realistic Role: 6; no. 3 starter

Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate; Tommy John on resume; continued return of feel for arsenal.

Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: The combination of absenteeism and underwhelming statistical performance puts Bundy’s perceived value at the lowest point since he was drafted. For shrewd owners who can see past that to the SP2 that Bundy can realistically progress into, this represents a great buying opportunity. He’s a potential high contributor in all four categories, despite likely calling a bandbox home. He easily remains a top-five fantasy arm.

The Year Ahead: Bundy passed the initial marker in his return from injury this past season as the right-hander showed that his health is trending in the right direction. Reports were clear that the 22-year-old is still finding his way in terms of feeling the stuff, but the flashes shown during his time on the mound were a very positive sign that things were coming back together. While the fastball velocity and crispness of the cutter were lacking, his curveball displayed the same prior shape and excellent bite. That’s a good clue that Bundy is building the confidence and trust in his arm to let loose again. This is a player who has been universally praised for both his work ethic and makeup. The expectation is that with a strong foundation already built and another offseason at his disposal, there’s a very strong chance the prospect will show big gains this year. While we must be prepared that things may not approach the previously identified potential outcome, the belief here is that Bundy will return to his prior form. Once his workload is built back up, it will be all systems go as he attempts to achieve his monster ceiling, with a legit chance to help at the major-league level during the stretch run this season.

Major league ETA: Debuted in 2012


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