BP Top Prospects: Padres

1. C Austin Hedges
2. OF Hunter Renfroe
3. RHP Matt Wisler
4. OF Rymer Liriano
5. OF Michael Gettys
6. SS Jose Rondon
7. SS Franchy Cordero
8. RHP Zech Lemond
9. 2B Taylor Lindsey
10. RHP Tayron Guerrero

1. Austin Hedges

Position: C
DOB: 08/18/1992
Height/Weight: 6’1” 190 lbs
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 2nd round, 2011 draft, Junipero Serra Catholic HS (San Juan Capistrano, CA)
Previous Ranking: #1 (Org), #18 (Top 101)
2014 Stats: .225/.268/.321 at Double-A San Antonio (113 games)
The Tools: 6+ arm; 7+ potential glove; 5 potential hit

What Happened in 2014: While his glove and arm remain impact weapons in every sense of the term, Hedges struggled to find any level of comfort or success at the plate against Texas League arms.

Strengths: Defensive chops and catch-and-throw game play to borderline elite levels at present; seamless from actions from reception through transfer and release; advanced footwork; throws come with regular precision; improved decision-making on field (e.g back picks); tracks well at the plate; swing works; strength and leverage to develop playable pop; high make-up; field general.

Weaknesses: Bat unlikely to play to impact levels; approach unraveled through summer; average bat speed magnifies negative impact of regressed approach; power ceiling limited; needs to produce more regular impactful contact to force advanced arms to work the margins; if hit/power play down, strike zone command and tracking lose value/utility.

Overall Future Potential: High 6; first-division player/all-star

Realistic Role:  6; first0division regular

Risk Factor/Injury History: Low; even with hit concerns the glove and arm will carry profile.

Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: The future Padre backstop will be the highest ranked player in the Top 101 who does not factor into the Dynasty 101—and it won’t be particularly close. There’s really no point in shallow mixed leaguers of owning him at all, as his best-case scenario looks similar to what Wilin Rosario did in 2014 (.267 average and 13 homers), and he was not a top-10 fantasy catcher. In deep mixed and NL-only leagues, there’s still something here, but if you own him, sell him on name value.

The Year Ahead: On the heels of Hedges’s 2013 offensive struggles in the Texas League, which could be easily written off as a small sample size from an aggressively promoted 20-year-old, the continued trials and tribulations that defined his full year of Double-A exposure last summer did little to bolster confidence in the stick. The good news is that there is still a solid offensive producer tucked into the profile. Dating back to his days as an amateur, the JSerra prep product has displayed the solid strike zone command you would expect from an advanced backstop, as well as the balance and swing path to produce solid contact across the quadrants. Hedges got away from that sound mechanical foundation during his tumultuous 2014, with opposing arms challenging him more regularly in the zone as the resultant swing proved less and less capable of squaring up offerings with any degree of frequency. It’s unlikely Hedges will ever produce impact level power numbers, but there is plenty of strength in the body and leverage in the swing to keep pitchers honest provided he can work his way back to the approach and swing that served him so well as an amateur and through the start of his pro career. Supporters are banking on just that, with an additional note that San Antonio’s home park is particularly rough on right-handed power and may have been at least partly responsible for Hedges’s departure from a contact-friendly swing to a pull-happy cut. He’ll play the bulk of 2015 at the age of 22, leaving plenty of flexibility as to how the organization wants to handle his assignment, with an interesting option being a month of High-A ball to build momentum with the stick and subsequent promotion directly to El Paso. The glove and arm are major-league ready, and Hedges should make his debut in San Diego as soon as the organization is comfortable there is no additional developmental value in logging minor-league at-bats.

Major league ETA:  2016