The 2016 MLB Draft signing deadline passed last Friday and once that smoke cleared we began to gain clarity on what the 2017 College Baseball season will look like from a personnel standpoint. We've often seen an appearance in Omaha born of this deadline, and for example, Oklahoma State's most recent trip to the promised land most likely began when shortstop Donnie Walton chose to return for his senior year.
We have four categories for this traditional draft "Winners and Losers" piece: Recruiting Boon, Draft Bust, Fortuitous Returns, and Picks to Click.
"Recruiting Boon" will target teams that had high-profile high school recruits chose school over the draft whereas "Draft Bust" will focus on those programs whose recruiting classes were decimated by the draft. "Fortuitous Returns" will emphasize juniors who elected to come back for their senior seasons and "Picks To Click" will feature a few programs who caught our eyes for other reasons.
Recruiting Boon
TCU won this draft "season" already and there is really isn't a close second. First of all, the Horned Frogs kept their entire coaching staff. That was a big risk with Texas apparently targeting Jim Schlossnagle for their opening plus assistants Bill Mosiello and Kirk Saarloos being attractive options for other schools seeking a head coach. In regards to high school recruits, lefthander Nick Lodolo (42nd overall, Pirates) was the highest drafted player not to sign and righthander Charles King makes a second arm (and 2015 PG All-American) with great pedigree to make it Fort Worth.
TCU will also return Brian Howard and Mitchell Traver to their rotation next year despite both players being drafted. As if that wasn't enough, this lineup returns eight starters. And as for the center field spot that does open up, it will most likely be filled by Nolan Brown, who was originally the starter there in the first place before losing his season to injury.
Ole Miss, much like TCU, enjoyed the draft on multiple levels. Colby Bortles will return for his senior year and he will join Tate Blackman to give the Rebels a very solid middle of the order. On the high school side, catcher Cooper Johnson and shortstop Grae Kessinger are two high-profile middle-of-the-field talents. Johnson's offense will be a work in progress but he immediately becomes one of the top defensive catchers in college baseball.
North Carolina is another program that did well in the area of getting high school talent to campus. Righthanders Tyler Baum and Austin Bergner were 2015 PG All-Americans and New Jersey catcher Brandon Martorano won Tournament MVP honors in Jupiter at the WWBA World Championship last October playing for the champion EvoShield Canes. While the Tar Heels biggest area of need appears to be offense, they will once again be a strong run prevention outfit.
Draft Blues
There is no question that Tracy Smith and his outstanding recruiting coordinator Ben Greenspan have Arizona State headed in the right direction. Having said that, the 2016 draft hurt the Sun Devils in almost too many ways to mention.
ASU had six incoming recruits sign professionally, and while the sheer volume of that is problematic, the loss of shortstops Gavin Lux (1st round, Dodgers) and Ethan Skender (28th round, Padres) leave this program with a big hole in the middle of the diamond. There was a chance that juniors David Greer (10th round, Mariners) and Seth Martinez (17th round, Athletics) could return but both players signed, leaving the Sun Devils needing both a three-hole hitter and a Friday night arm to emerge next season.
UCLA had three chances at securing a star in this class with signees Mickey Moniak, Blake Rutherford and Kevin Gowdy. Moniak and Rutherford were long shots from the beginning and both ended up signing as first round picks. Gowdy seemed more plausible as his outstanding pitchability often trumped his stuff. In the end, the Phillies made no friends in Westwood as they used their slot savings from signing Moniak at 1-1 to sign Gowdy for $3.5 million at pick 42.
Even an outstanding academic school like Vanderbilt can be susceptible to the draft, especially given the Commodores typical high upside recruiting class. Pitchers Ian Anderson, Braxton Garrett and Jason Groome all went in the first 12 selections and Groome had additionally committed to Chipola College thus showing his cards early in the process. Hitters Thomas Jones (3rd round, Marlins) and Kobie Taylor (15th round, Rangers) also signed. The return of drafted veterans Will Toffey and Jason Delay should help offset those losses.
Fortuitous Returns
If any program could challenge TCU for "winner" of the draft, LSU would be in the running. The Tigers' main success here was in the area of returning players, with lefthander Jared Poche (14th round, Padres) being the coup de grace. With the additional returns of Greg Deichmann, Kramer Robertson, and Cole Freeman, the LSU coaching staff had about as good of a draft season as possible. For those of us keeping score at home, LSU returns their entire lineup minus Jake Fraley, two-thirds of their rotation, and their closer. And this was arguably the nation's hottest team down the stretch.
Oklahoma State had 11 players drafted, tying their program record. While that will lead to obvious turnover, the return of righthanders Tyler Buffett (7th round, Astros) and Trey Cobb (12th round, Cubs) are important surprises. Veteran hitters Ryan Sluder (undrafted) and Dustin Williams (36th round, Pirates) will be back for their senior seasons and they are both bounceback candidates after frustrating junior seasons.
'Fortuitous' may be the wrong word to describe the draft experience of Cliff Godwin's East Carolina program, but regardless, things are looking up for the 2017 Pirates. It seemed that ECU would lose their entire rotation from this year's Super Regional team, but neither junior ace Evan Kruczynski nor classmate Jacob Wolfe were drafted. In fact, the Pirates had a shocking zero players drafted. The net result here is that ECU will have 12 very motivated seniors on next year's roster, including postseason hero Travis Watkins.
Picks to Click
The Gamecocks of South Carolina look poised to double down on the momentum of the 2016 season and incoming freshmen Carlos Cortes and Rian Haire are big additions who were draft risks. Cortes may have been the best pure hitter in this draft not named Mickey Moniak and he could be a middle-of-the-order bat from the get go. Wil Crowe returns to Columbia for his redshirt-junior season and he will be 20 months removed from Tommy John surgery at the beginning of the 2017 season. Remember, Crowe was South Carolina's Friday night starter in 2015.
Arizona loses the absolute core of their CWS team but there is visible program momentum here. The Wildcats held on to six drafted recruits and hitters Nick Quintana and Cameron Cannon could very well be middle-of-the-order bats down the road. Cal Stevenson and Cory Voss are two drafted junior college transfers who previously had productive freshman seasons at Division I schools. Stevenson had played for Jay Johnson at Nevada in 2015 and Voss played at New Mexico that same year.
David Pierce and his staff have a big job to do at Texas but the return of Morgan Cooper and Bret Boswell gets things off on the right foot. Boswell is an experienced and talented bat and Cooper brings another big arm to the rotation with rising junior Kyle Johnston already in place.
Cal State Fullerton suffered a huge loss when Jason Dietrich accepted the pitching coach position at Oregon but the draft also stripped the Titans of much-needed incoming hitters. Recruits Dylan Carlson (33rd overall, Cardinals) and D.J. Peters (4th round, Dodgers) were being counted on to revamp an offense that was pedestrian in 2016. The draft also brought great news, as Timmy Richards (18th round, Twins) will be back for senior year and he may be the most complete college shortstop on the west coast. Richards will be joined by Dillon Persinger (17th round, Dodgers) of Golden West College who the Southern California Junior College Player of the Year.
One other school that had an interesting draft season was Florida State. The Seminoles kept 2015 PG All-American Drew Mendoza, and from a profile standpoint, this was a big surprise. Mendoza is a 6-foot-4 lefthanded hitting infielder with arm strength and that demographic doesn't often get to college baseball. If it all comes together for Mendoza, FSU could have stars in back-to-back classes as rising sophomore Cal Raleigh already looks and plays like a future first-round pick.