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Minors  | General  | 12/15/2014

BP Top Prospects: Diamondbacks

Nick Faleris      Baseball Prospectus     
Photo: Perfect Game

To read the full feature, including reports on the Arizona Diamondbacks top 10 prospects, please visit this link.

Last year's Diamondbacks list

The Top Ten
  1. RHP Archie Bradley
  2. RHP Braden Shipley
  3. RHP Aaron Blair
  4. RHP Touki Toussaint
  5. 3B/2B Brandon Drury
  6. 3B Jake Lamb
  7. RHP Jimmie Sherfy
  8. SS Sergio Alcantara
  9. OF Marcus Wilson
  10. RHP Kaleb Fleck


1. Archie Bradley

Position: RHP
DOB: 08/10/1992
Height/Weight: 6’4” 225 lbs
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1
st round, 2011 draft, Broken Arrow HS (Broken Arrow, OK)
Previous Ranking: #1 (Org), #9 (Top 101)
2014 Stats: 5.18 ERA (24.1 IP, 26 H, 23 K, 12 BB) at Triple-A Reno, 4.12 ERA (54.2 IP, 45 H, 46 K, 36 BB) at Double-A Mobile
The Tools: 7 FB; 6+ potential CB; 6 potential CT; 5 potential CH

What Happened in 2014: It was a year of firsts for the large Sooner State product, Bradley saw his first extended DL stint and hit his first developmental buzz saw between Double-A and Triple-A before bouncing back some in the AFL and enjoying his first bout of success, adding a new weapon to his already potent arsenal in the process.

Strengths: Big, sturdy workhorse; strong-man power through core and lower half; above-average arm speed; fastball can reach elite velocity, works comfortably in plus to double-plus velocity band with arm-side action; capable of pounding bottom of the zone on steep plane; curve can be a true hammer with violent bite and good depth at its best; cutter is potential impact offering with sharp, short slide and tilt, running 87 to 90 mph; upper-80s change will flash above average with soft fade; when right, shows high level of confidence and impressive mound presence; impact arsenal; solid athleticism off mound.

Weaknesses: Command and control below average at present; hard spike curve played soft and imprecise after missed time, often due to failure to get on top; change can get firm and flat, placing high level of import on sequencing to properly set up; below-average body control through mechanics; fails to repeat with regularity; slot can drift; arm speed can be negated by fickle timing; inconsistent landing ranges from straight line to slightly closed with a hint of crossfire; injury/discomfort further complicated work towards mechanical refinement.

Overall Future Potential: 7; no. 2 starter

Realistic Role: High 6; no. 2/3 starter

Risk Factor/Injury History: Low; impact stuff will play to late innings at worst; achieved Double-A.

Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: In fantasy leagues, Bradley is essentially playing Bill Murray’s role in Groundhog Day—as he enters the 2015 with an outside chance for a rotation spot and angling for an early-season call-up. Despite the rough 2014, Bradley still has SP1 upside with 200-plus strikeout ability, but is more likely to settle in as a top-30 starter who gives back some of that ERA/strikeout-based value in his WHIP. But, he’s still a top-five fantasy pitching prospect. Don’t overthink it.

The Year Ahead: There is no sugarcoating the struggles the former first rounder endured from the spring through the fall. With a combination of inconsistent timing and overthrowing in the mix, Bradley scuffled through his first month of action with Triple-A Reno before an intercostal strain in his right elbow forced him to the disabled list. He returned to game action two months later with Double-A Mobile where the power righty continued to battle his mechanics from a variable arm slot to inconsistent posture, timing, and landing; all of which combined to throw off his release and complicate his execution. Keep in mind, this is still some of the loudest stuff in the minors, and even under the best of circumstances loud stuff is not particularly easy to wield with precision. Bradley’s situation is further complicated by a big body that he is still learning to control and that was forced to compensate for irregularities in the arm for a large portion of the year. In short, Bradley wasn’t “right” for most of the summer, and when you loosen the bolts on a muscle car and drive it around for a while, it’s going to take some time to work everything back into proper alignment. Provided a winter of rest sees Bradley at 100 percent next spring, he’ll likely begin 2015 with a confidence-building assignment back in Double-A. There’s the ever-present risk that he never gets his body to do what it needs to do pitch to pitch, but if everything clicks it’s going to be some of the filthiest stuff in the game. He has the raw ability and potential to bridge that gap between forgettable 2014 to legit, front-end major leaguer in the blink of an eye.

Major league ETA: 2015


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